British Pound and New Zealand Dollar: Evidence of Reversals

-EURUSD evidence favors reversal; no confirmation yet
-AUDUSD not as clear
-USDCAD back to 1.1100-1.1300

[B]Euro / US Dollar[/B]

The EURUSD rally from 1.2886 has exceeded the level at which it would be equal to the 1.2454-1.3742 rally (1.4174), which puts 1.4723 at risk from a probabilistic standpoint. The alternate, in which a larger complex correction will end above 1.4723, does remain valid. Overbought and divergent RSI favors a top before 1.4723. Coming under 1.3792 would make it highly likely that a top is in place but if sufficient evidence arises that a top is in place prior to that point, then I’ll discuss as much here. Until then, it is best to wait for clarity.

[B]British Pound / US Dollar[/B]

A former 4th wave price extreme at 1.6680 held as resistance today and the GBPUSD may have topped. At least a portion of the 5 wave advance from 1.5775 should be retraced (Fibonacci support between 1.6116 and 1.6326) if not the entire thing. Coming under 1.5775 would suggest that top is in place. Given the 5 wave count from 1.4513 (wave C of the rally from 1.35), it is worth going short.

[B]Australian Dollar / US Dollar[/B]

Nothing has changed regarding long term bearish implications (5 wave decline from 2008 high indicates additional bearish potential and the corrective rally from .6000 confirms as much). RSI divergence along with mature wave structure at multiple degrees of trend (3 waves up from .6000, 5 waves up from .6245 and 5 waves up from .6950) favors a reversal. Unlike Cable, the final subdivisions are not clear, therefore it is difficult to take a stand against the high.

[B]New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar[/B]

The NZDUSD reversed at the point that the rally from .5484 equaled the .4890-.5987 rally (.6581). This level is defended by the 50% retracement of the decline from .8220-.4890; at .6555. I wrote yesterday that “the Fibonacci confluence combined with overbought RSI favors a reversal. Coming under .6444 would suggest a reversal.” The NZDUSD has dropped below there so I am bearish. There is short term resistance at .6500. The subdivisions are clear and I favor the idea that the NZDUSD has topped.

[B]US Dollar / Japanese Yen[/B]

The triangle count remains valid. Under this count, wave d (triangles unfold in 5 waves (a-b-c-d-e)) of a B wave triangle is underway towards 98-99. A drop below 93.50 would favor a bearish breakout strategy against 97.26.

[B]US Dollar / Canadian Dollar[/B]

The speed of the decline from 1.1820 and the RSI extreme make it likely that the decline is a 3rd wave. As such, favor a corrective rally to the 1.1180-1.1300 zone (Fibonacci and structural) before a drop to a new low to complete wave v of C.

[B]Euro / US Dollar[/B]

The USDCHF count is the same as the EURUSD count (but as the inverse). There are 2 competing counts, one that calls for formation of a low prior to 1.0367 and one that gives scope to a drop below 1.0367 before a bottom and reversal. In the case of the latter, the current decline would be wave 3 of C and would extend from near current price. Only a rally through 1.0957 would suggest that a low is in place.

Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.

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