British Pound: Corrections Unfold in Crosses


[B]Commentary[/B] - We wrote last week that “we expect a 4th wave to unfold from little (if any) under 221.51. A prior 4th wave is resistance at 227.93.” The rally that did unfold was much stronger than anticipated and reached 234.89 this morning. We are treating the entire decline from the top (251.10) as large wave A. The advance from 219.30 is large wave B. The rally from 219.30 may be just the first leg of wave B though. 235.61 is near term resistance for wave a of B. A b of B decline (might be underway now) will give way to a thrust higher in wave C, possibly towards the 61.8% of 251.10-219.30 at 238.95 before the next down leg begins. If 234.89 is the top of wave a of B, then a solid support zone is 225.26-229.94 (38.2%-61.8% of 219.30-234.89) and wave c of B should begin somewhere in that zone.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Flat

[B]Commentary[/B] - See last week?s analysis for the longer term structure (which is bearish). Near term, the pair has bounced off the support line drawn off of the July 2006 and March 2007 lows. Look for a bounce to sell (if not already bearish) near 2.4361/2.4503 (50%-61.8% of 2.4925-2.3758).
[B]Strategy[/B] - Remain bearish against 2.4963, target below 2.3288.

[B]Commentary [/B]- We wrote last week that “this rally should give way to a consolidation phase, which should be followed by additional gains.” The decline has been deeper than expected but it looks corrective to this point. The next level of potential support is the 61.8% of 2.3508-2.5636 at 2.4320.
[B]Strategy[/B] - Flat

[B]Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist[/B]