-GBPCHF tests 2009 high, measured resistance at 1.8220
-GBPCAD forming for a test of 1.8400
-GBPAUD monthly candle is bullish
British Pound / Swiss Franc
The GBPCHF is pressuring the high to date and a push above (1.7496) would expose the 200 day SMA at 1.7650. Strength could persist to the 100% extension of the rally from 1.5113-1.7496; which is at 1.8338. Long term, I still maintain that a 5th wave will complete the entire decline from the 2007 top. This long term forecast is valid as long as price is below 1.9369.
British Pound / Canadian Dollar
Last week, I wrote that “there is a good chance that a flat is complete. Favor the upside against Monday’s low (1.7378). The objective is above 1.8500.” There is no change to the bullish outlook.
British Pound / Australian Dollar
Divergence with RSI at the recent low favors GBPAUD strength as does the push through trendline resistance. Initial resistance now is at 2.0912 but a much larger advance is possible. The pair is at the lower end of a decade + range. It is worth noting that tomorrow is the last trading day of the month and this month’s candle sports a long wick and small body that is usually found at bottoms.
British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
A multi-year triangle is likely complete at 2.8968. Confirming completion of the triangle is the decline from 2.8968, which exhibits the 5 wave impulse pattern. An expanded flat is probably underway now that will end above 2.6498. Favor strength from here and a possible test of Fibonacci resistance at 2.7340.
[I]Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>[/I]