-GBPCHF working towards Fibonacci / channel confluence
-GBPCAD target near 1.9000
-GBPAUD evidence of important bottom
British Pound / Swiss Franc
Strength could persist to the 100% extension of the rally from 1.5113-1.7496; which is at 1.8223. This level intersects with channel resistance at the end of June (June 29th to be exact). Long term, I still maintain that a 5th wave will complete the entire decline from the 2007 top.
British Pound / Canadian Dollar
I continue to favor the upside and eventual break above 1.8433 as the decline from the February high can be counted as an expanded flat (completed at 1.7378). Bulls are firmly in control with price above 1.7600. A potential target going forward is 1.9085 (100% extension of 1.6711-1.8418, this level intersects with November 2008 highs).
British Pound / Australian Dollar
Divergence with RSI at the recent low favors GBPAUD strength as does the push through trendline resistance. MACD (daily) is very close to turning positive as well. Initial resistance now is at 2.0912 but a much larger advance is possible. The pair is at the lower end of a decade + range. It is worth noting that May’s candle sports a long wick and small body. This is the type of candle that is usually seen at bottoms.
British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
A multi-year triangle is likely complete at 2.8968. Confirming completion of the triangle is the decline from 2.8968, which exhibits the 5 wave impulse pattern. An expanded flat is probably underway now that will end above 2.6498. Favor strength from here and a possible test of Fibonacci resistance at 2.7340.
[I]Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to <[email protected]>
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