British Pound Crosses Range - Watch for a Break


[B]Commentary[/B] - We wrote last week that “we are looking for a test of 247.91 to be followed by wave Y that comes under 243.95 to complete a complex correction.” After hitting 247.79 on Friday, the GBPJPY traded in a tight range. We still expect a drop below 243.95, if not this week, then next. An extended decline could test the 241.50 area, which is the confluence of the 61.8% of 237.64 and 161.8% extension of 247.91-243.95/247.79. The longer term structure is bullish, barring a break of 237.64
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bearish, against 247.91, target 243.95

[B]Commentary[/B] - Last week, we wrote that “an irregular flat (which is not irregular at all - just a name), is unfolding from 2.4503 and is likely to end near either the 61.8% of 2.4751-2.4503 at 2.4656 or the 78.6% at 2.4698. The small triangle forming now should give way to a terminal thrust to one of these levels before a third wave that goes much lower.” The thrust ended at 2.4689 on Friday before the GBPCHF dropped to 2.4321. We were looking for a longer term reversal but the 5 wave rally from 2.4321 indicates additional bullish potential. Look for a rally to face resistance at either the 61.8% of 2.4751-2.4321 (2.4587) or the 78.6% (2.4659).
[B]Strategy[/B] - Bearish, against 2.4751, target TBD

[B]Commentary[/B] - With the rejection at 2.3920 last week, it looked like the longer term bear trend was back underway. However, the decline has failed to unfold in an impulsive manner, which leaves open the possibility of a rally above 2.3920. A rally above 2.3622 would shift focus to 2.3920. Only a decline below 2.3292 would instill confidence in the larger bearish outlook. Due to the lack of clarity, we are moving to flat
[B]Strategy[/B] - Flat