@TYGMedia how do u identify the short and long area? how big are your SL? my trade setup for 17/09/2024 is the same as yours its just when I’m backtesting I find that my SnR arent being respected and when I trade them it often leads to a fakeout and hits my SL. Im not sure how to fix this. Im not sure if I need more signs for entry or what.
When you have define global market structure, split it into two. The upper one is short area, other is long area.
The fake out happens when you are trading lower time frame, without respecting the movement on higher TF. Always aware SnR at Higher TF.
I had told you my SL is very tight, that’s because Im using M1 to M15 to define entry point.
How do you avoid fakeouts when trading. Ive noticed that sometimes when my SnR is hit and I take a long/short trade I notice that there is a restest at my SnR majority of times which then leads me to getting stopped out.
For instance USD/JPY may hit my resistance level and I wait to take a short entry once I get a few engulfing candlesticsk influencing me to take a short trade. Once I take the short trade the trend retests the SnR and because I took the trade a bit later for confirmation I’m stopped out with a 20SL.
not sure how to fix this any help/advice would be amazing
You wanted to sell there, so you placed a market order to sell. Broker filled that order. They did their job as you ordered them to. Don’t enter an order if you don’t want it executed.
Hi @tomo22, this is the part you have to build your trading stats. You have also need to choose, how to make confirmation before open a position.
If you want to have tight SL, a confirmation is very important. RR must be higher than 1.5. My preference is at least 3RR.
Fake out happens when you give focus to much on past SnR. Remember SnR is not just a line. It’s an area. When you see price come down to a support line, don’t think there will be rejection on the line. It will be rejection in within an area around the line.
When price break the support line, it doesn’t necessary mean price will be going down. So we have to find confirmation if the rejection is going to be a reversal.
This method is similar as catching a falling knife. If you are not skillful, you will only hurt yourself.
Different instrument has different behavior. You have to find out the behavior of the instrument. Building trading stats, in spreadsheet for example, find out the statistic of the strategy.
For example, you open position on every reversal near support. Look at the stats. After 100 attempts you won 45, lost 55. By using 1.5RR, you are still profiting.
You only open position at buying zone, your won 55, lost 45. Your profit is improving.
You only open position after correction more then 60%, your win rate can probably up to 60%, and your RR can be 1:2. This will improve your performance.
You have to do it yourself, since it will help you to build your skill, mentality and conviction.
@TYGMedia Just for some advice do you think I should just continue with trading only or maybe try learn to start a business up? or look into learning programming?
Also what are your signs for confirmation that makes u take a trade?
I’m afraid I cant give you advice for this issue. It relies on your condition. As an Software Architect, my advice will be a bias. I will always find IT is the best, since I already have good network for it. I have friends who work in Melbourne as Software Developer, Data Scientist and other IT positions, But there are also many other jobs available.
So the point is, you need to find out what do you love more, what do you want to be in the future. After you have figured it out, you have to work hard to make it real.
So when I put my position into yours, if I’m still young and plentiful energy, I will grab every opportunities I know and I love to try. That will give me higher probability to success.
Younger generation is having more difficult situation compare to my time. Competition is a lot higher, but the opportunities is also abundant. We have to pick carefully base on our interest and skill.
Everything is difficult in the beginning. The same thing happens to be a trader. I was an employee and employer to my own company. I was one of people who couldn’t survive with practical politic in corporate, then I was slowly moving away from my own company. I got back-stabbed and betrayed many time during my careers. Those were reasons I put more focus on trading.
These are part of story, so you know what you need to consider before taking a path. Remember be open minded, take all opportunities that fit yours, be honest and humble to everyone.
Hi @tomo22, confirmation for me almost different for each pair.
For EURUSD, I will look for:
Breakout on trend line near support or resistance. When breakout on sell zone, I will short, otherwise I do long.
The reversal on lower TF according to higher TF. For example I see an up trend correction on H4, I will wait a series H, HH, L, HL on M5 or M15. When I can see it, I will start my long position.
Range shifting on lower TF. It is almost similar with H, HH, L, HL. But we focus more on range breakout.
Many others can be used. You have to practice one by one.
thank you so much for the insight I really appreciate it. Im currently studying property as a profession at university. I just really want to pursue trading or maybe start a business so I don’t have to work for someone. I just have never really liked working for people
so u identify H, L, HH, HL and from that you can identify a possible reversal? Where is the reversal in the last picture? at the end where it jumps from 1.110 to 1.1190?
Hi @tomo22, the accuracy of price action is higher on higher TF (HTF). On lower TF, you need to be more careful. So always analyze the movement on HTF .
It’s a break out. When market broke resistance, that will be the reversal. The support will be the the area around double bottoms.
Range shifting is telling us, market moves like a pendulum. The big institutions and government are the one who move the pendulum. But the pendulum itself is always swing left and right.
So when nobody moves the pendulum, it will swing left and right.
As in chart, when market isn’t moved by the big brothers, it will move up and down, leaving a consolidation pattern. We call it a range ( price range ).
When the big brothers fight, the price will start to shift … so we can see a trending pattern, up or down. But in between the trending, we still can find the trace of ranges, we call it a correction or bulls / bear flag.
This is the principle of range shifting. It’s actually the forgotten concept from price action.
sorry I haven’t replied @TYGMedia. when you say market broke resistance were is that is my question? is it at? 1.1170 on the 22 aug?
Thank you for teaching me range shifting I’ve never really thought about that perspective and it really helps.
Also when a trend occurs and there is no SnR to be drawn how are you supposed to trade? Follow the trend when pullbacks occur? If so how do you calculate when a pull back is going to occur is that through the use of a Fib retracement?