$BTCUSD / Crypto Analysis THU APR 22

BTC is testing a key technical level @ $52k.

Here’s the price action breakdown:

20 EMA
3% / 6% / 11% Pink text: The 20EMA has been breached on the prior 3 pullbacks. Each breach has cut deeper to the downside which is indicative of sellers getting more aggressive and more volatility entering the market. Also, buyers becoming increasingly more-willing to wait for deeper corrections before seeing signs to reload.

$60k Breakout Level
The market spent basically all of March and the first few weeks of April compressing under the $60k mark (white horizontal line). The breakout and rally to $64k only lasted 5 days, which is about 1/4th of the time the market took to get up to that price level (this is a sign of weakness). This sub-$60k compression should have not only propelled price higher, but, should have also attracted more buyers if the demand was truly there. Everyone above $60k is now / was trapped.

Testing of the 236FIB
Instead, what we saw was a violent gap down, and three trading sessions that got bid up (white x’s)- buyers were trying to protect $56k. The first two sell-offs were traps for bears- the candles printed deep wicks and rallied to almost close at the highs of the day. The third sell off saw no demand.

Liquidation / Stop Run
After big gaps down, there is more-often-than-not a reversion to the mean that simply fills the liquidity gap. The opposite happened today. Sellers took the market down and ran all the stops that were likely clustered from those that were trapped above $60k + those that tried to buy the gap down playing a mean reversion / liquidity vacuum trade.

Resting on 382FIB
The market is taking a breath on the 382FIB. This zone is critical for bulls. The horizontal light white shaded box is a key price support/resistance area. Point A was a key breakout, which then was retested and held via Point B solidifying “old resistance as new support”. Point C is where we’re currently @ today. The liquidation candle closed almost on the absolute lows of the day, which is indicative of non-stop, one-way selling pressure.

Why does this matter?
(1) BTC has been seen as a great proxy for macro risk appetite
(2) If people are forced to liquidate / are dumping BTC, that money will need to flow somewhere else - capital is always seeking yield
(3) If $51k gets taken out, there’s a high probability we’ll see $47-$44k before higher prices print again

There are a few different scenarios that can play out. You could easily see a dead-cat bounce here-- those that have been trying to short the sh!t out of this the whole way up may cover here for a scratch, or, smaller loss. That could suck in some new buying as well. If that happens, bears will prob be lining up at $57k to sell it again.

We can also chop sideways.
We can also see this FIB get taken out. That would likely have a larger ripple effect to the global markets- maybe pulling down riskier “COVID re-opening trades” with it. Why? B/c every single financial news network talks about BTC daily.

If there’s a big move up, the capital will need to be sourced/pulled from somewhere.
If there’s a big move down, the BTC capital will need to flow to somewhere.

If you can spot that move, there’s prob a good “BTC-related” position that can be put on. Personally, I think that if there’s a quick, violent move down you’ll see other coins start to pump (looking @ you DOGE) as capital flows out of BTC to others in the crypto space. DOGE seems to have the most attention on the internet right now, is dirt cheap, and is probably where the cash would flow (IDK, don’t quote me).

There are other correlations probably out there that are tighter, but, I’ve been trading for almost 12 hours straight today, am dead tired, and this was the last few ounces of gas in the tank.

Hope it means something to someone. Or, it can mean literally nothing to no-one b/c I’m just some rando on the internet finger-painting on a price chart.

-Jake

50FIB touched to the penny.

Trading up toward $57k.
I think this rally is a trap, short-covering, and sellers are waiting for another rally to bring BTC down again.
In my circles, I’ve heard calls for a 3, even potentially 2, handle. A big flush out might be a great buying opportunity to get long at a discount.

How low are you thinking if it goes down? Into the 30’s? I’m not familiar with what 3 or 2 handle means.

Same question as @Thebeezneez!

@Thebeezneez @ponponwei Definitely do not put your money where my mouth is, especially in the Crypto space. I’m a random person on the internet and your own due diligence / investment goals should take priority over what anyone else says. I just think the recent price action has been interesting, and worthy of having a discussion around. This not investment advice.

A “3 or 2 handle” means exactly what you said- a price where the first number is a 3 or a 2 ex: $3x,xxx or $2x,xxx. It’s just an industry way of referring to price in a market.

I think you need to watch the $57k mark. That’s a confluence point of the 236FIB and the D1 20EMA. I’d be more inclined to take profits there (if you were trapped above $60k), and, more inclined to initiate new shorts there (knowing that the trapped buyers will recognize the technical relevance of that price zone.

From there, it’s anyone’s guess. I’m still in DOGE and it’s just starting to move. I don’t think anything in trading is really “linear”, but, if you see a rally in BTC to 57k that fails, and then a sell off but DOGE is still rallying that could be an indication of money flowing from one to the other.

!!!Here’s the wildcard!!! We have FED news today at 230. The market will probably move in the AM, and then stall/drift until we see what the FED has to say. Today has the potential to catch a lot of people off sides, and, might be a key moment in time for either macro trend continuations or reversals.

Oh I see. Thank you!

It’s been a week. I wonder how long til it gets there.

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That 57/58k zone failed. I think my hypothesis is correct and BTC is gonna take a back seat for now. Prob to the dogey! That DOGE hitter baby.

I know right. Are you looking at ETH too??

I think most people would be much more interested in something that is 50 cents and literally a meme that is printing people money.

Lol who knew this sentence would make so much sense in 2021. :joy:

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