Update 09/01.
New buy order at H 09/01
New sell order at L 09/01
Update 09/01.
New buy order at H 09/01
New sell order at L 09/01
A couple of practical questions:
How many untriggered orders are currently still open prior to NFP release today?
With a live account would you actually risk still keeping all these orders open through it?
Thanks!
All untriggered orders are left open regardless of NFP etc. The market makes the decision which orders are “right”.
So far I also don’t have any thoughts to impose a time-limit on pending orders. So if the Nasdaq drops much further, sell orders from December, November and earlier will start triggering.
Yes, I understand that - but that is why I am asking you how many open orders exist today, prior to the NFP release and would you ACTUALLY in a live account take the risk and leave them open?
I am asking because this is precisely the difference between theory and practice.
Yes of course. There are two open positions, both short - the sell orders set on the lows of 03/01 and 07/01 triggered on 08/01.
When I check after today’s close I will find out if the sell orders set at the lows of 08/01 and 09/01 have triggered today.
The next nearest pending sell order is at the low of 02/01. The November sell orders are just below it. There are also pending buy orders above current price but these will probably not come into play any time soon - actually the buy orders of 09/01 and 08/01 may be triggered soon.
I am paying no regard to NFP dates or any other fundamental events.
I am also running the strategy in a live spreadbetting account, which is also doing well.
Thanks, great update! I appreciate it!
You’re welcome. I do appreciate that the strategy is simplistic, but that’s also the point. It eliminates almost all technical and fundamental analysis, it does not use technical indicators, volume, order flow etc., it does not rely on subjective decisions which means there are no judgemet calls, hunches, or psychologically or emotionally-derived biases.
It might turn out to be more useful as a training aid than as a means to attain life-changing wealth. It might be useful to new traders as a self-disciplinary exercise and so they understand charts from a basic level but also understand what a strategy is, and how devleoping the strategy brings risks as well as rewards.
I can add that although the strategy is simplistic, it also more than echoes more sophisticated and long-established approaches like Donchian, CRT, Smash Days, momentum trading, swing trading, candlestick pattern trading and a raft of others. Some of these others are just re-hashes - the same strategy with a different indicator - we’ve all seen these, especialy on Youtube.
This is actually precisely what I was thinking and why I wanted to ask those questions. It is, IMHO, a bit like a “skeleton” core structure with no flesh on the bones, and that is why it can teach so much about the nature of trading.
But it is no use anyone following it in theory if they are not also prepared to follow the same principles in live trading. Two aspects here could be troublesome in a live situation.
Firstly, the indices markets move far and fast and that could result in some wide stoploss settings - which is not good for a small account.
Naturally, daily moves and ranges are somewhat different over a holiday period like Xmas/New Year and a year end accounting. But it will be interesting to follow how this functions in the months following the inauguration of Donald Trump and his policies
Secondly, leaving orders/positions open over a weekend/holiday period may be too risky for some traders and expensive from a carry POV for some types of accounts
Right! Actually, the first thought that came to my mind when I saw this was a vague similarity to an old Welles Wilder system that we were following on this site some years back.
I am personally interested in looking at this on a currency pair and have chosen GBPUSD. But I will be overlaying it with my own trading method which I think would complement it very well, and limiting the number of open orders.
But that is just my approach, I am not suggesting anything like “improvements” here! (And , of course, I won’t be interrupting your flow here either )
Thank you, these are all the most valid points and anyone considering trading like this must take them into account.
Things to take into consideration folks -
A key weakness to the strategy is that the stop-loss is always 1 day’s full range away whereas the gains are usually (but not always) only a fraction of a day’s range. This of course suggests two things - cut the stop-loss distance or hold the winners longer than the very first profitable exit.
Narrow daily candles are common around holiday periods. This encourages opposing orders which are close together. This can mean explosive wins when price breaks out of a range, or multiple losses if there is not a clear post-holiday break-out.
Holding orders and positions over a weekend is part and parcel of of D1 trading but in this context doing anything else would amount to what traders like to call “analysis” but what might be more truthfully “second-guessing”. It suppresses both wins and losses so the true net cost is very difficult to predict.
Can this strategy be enhanced? Definitely. This is like the chassis, engine and wheels of a car - what body you wish to attach, or whether you want a different engine is for each individual trader.
Eventually we must all probably change over to electric trading systems with “green” indicators and price action? This strategy will be very good for that purpose.
One other, rather minor practical issue (for me, anyway! ), is being awake at the mkt “close” to close out any positions in profit and to set the new orders for the next day at the start of that day’s candle.
For me, that is midnight, which is not too bad, but in other time zones…
Also, some platforms work with different times for EOD, which needs at least being aware of.
I am enjoying myself at the moment constructing an Excel spreadsheet for this and to automate some of the entries and results.
Sorry! one more practical issue!!
When looking to close out a profit trade at the mkt close, it may be worthwhile in some cases to do so before the actual close (maybe 1/2 hour) to avoid a wider spread range . especially if it happens to be a Friday.
I will shut up now! Have a good weekend everyone…
Do not worry about posting stuff about issues - it’s constructive.
To be truthful sometimes close trades a little before or a little after the close, I usually don’t have the chance to be watching the screen as the clock ticks down. This means my actual closing or order prices may be a little above or a little below the true closing bids and asks, but I figure they’re as likely to be pips above as pips below, whether I’m bullish or bearish, so it should all average out - on D1 that should not make a big impact.
Update 10/01 -
Short from 03/01 triggered and closed manually = +228pts
Short from 07/01closed manually = +253pts
Short from 08/01 triggered and closed manually = +144pts
Strategy gain = +666pts
Sell order at L 02/01 triggered
Sell order at L 29/11 triggered
New buy order at H 10/01
New sell order at L 10/01
Update 13/01.
Short from 02/01 triggered and closed manually = +15pts
Strategy gain = +681pts
Short from 10/01 triggered
New buy order at H 13/01
New sell order at L 13/01