• Euro seen retesting 1.3740 into Wednesday
• Dollar/Yen consolidates latest gains
• Cable ascends to fresh 2009 highs above 1.5500 and just shy of 200-Day SMA
• Dollar/Swiss heading back towards 1.0975 trend lows
[B]EUR/USD –[/B] Setbacks on Monday towards the 200-Day SMA have been very well supported with the market bouncing from daily lows by 1.3420 back to 1.3660 thus far. Overall in the short-term, we continue to see dips limited, with the risk for a fresh push higher to challenge and break above the key trend highs at 1.3740. Once 1.3740 is broken, we will then look to establish USD long positions in anticipation of a more medium-term USD rally. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL (Sell recommendation issued earlier not expected to be triggered).[/B]
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3800
R3
Figure
1.3740
R2
3/19 high
1.3665
R1
5/14 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.3530
S1
5/19 low
1.3420
S2
5/18 low
1.3340
S3
5/8 low
[B]USD/JPY –[/B] The bottom of the Ichimoku cloud has proved to be a formidable support for now and the pair has reversed course to trade to 96.70 thus far. Look for an interim low by 94.55 and fresh upside over the coming days back towards 97.85. Only back under 94.55 negates and exposes deeper setbacks. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
97.85
R3
5/12 high
97.25
R2
5/11 low
96.70
R1
5/19 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
95.10
S1
5/14 low
94.55
S2
5/18 low
94.15
S3
3/20 low
[B]GBP/USD – [/B]Has finally broken the up-down pattern of the past several days to accelerate to fresh 2009 highs above 1.5375. Gains have stalled for now just ahead of the critical longer-term 200-Day SMA at 1.5570, but we look for this level to be tested over the coming hours. The last time the pair closed above the 200-Day SMA was back on July 23, 2008. The daily RSI is however approaching overbought and we would be looking for an opportunity to sell into any rallies above the 200-Day. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. (Sell recommendation issued earlier not expected to be triggered).[/B]
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Resistance[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.5725
R3
12/17 high
1.5570
R2
200-Day SMA
1.5515
R1
5/19 high
[B]Level[/B]
[B]Support[/B]
[B]Details[/B]
1.5295
S1
5/19 low
1.5115
S2
5/18 low
1.5060
S3
5/14 low
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail [email protected] and you will be added to the “distribution” list.
Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
“Indicator of the Day” – A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
“Cross Country” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
“Scandi Daily” – A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact [email protected] if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)