As the post above yours correctly mentions, it isn’t IN a market at all! And there’s no way of measuring spot forex/CFD volume anyway!!
Think about it: how on Earth could a private bet between two parties, which doesn’t exist anywhere apart from on the software/computers of each, influence the global currency markets?!
The only thing that moves the fx market are market orders.
What influences those orders is a different story.
Many times we see news that should cause a sell on GBP (for example) yet price goes North - only to rebound at a recent high & then go South.
Happens that at that high there were sell orders outweighing buys (thus a high) - so are the unfilled sells still there - yep, why pull on sell news - especially if anticipated.
Hmm, I see your point! But even if we can’t measure volume like in traditional markets, big visible limit orders might still signal shifts to smaller players, influencing their decisions. It’s like a ripple effect—not a wave, but still something, right?
That’s the worse example ever! I will explain what I’m saying by using your own example but in a correct way. If you know that a lot of people are going to bet on a certain horse, it can effect choice of bet. Therefore, pending orders might effect the flow of market. when executed it could be a direct effect!
Yes it’s called spoofing and this type of manipulation is still widespread in some crypto and commodity markets. However order book should be available for traders to make this trick feasible. However for a very large markets it is barely possible due to high liquidity and is unlikely to cause severe price changes, maybe 2-3 pips not more and only in certain situations.
The point several people are missing here is that spot forex/CFD’s don’t have an exchange.
So not only can a limit order not move the price, but it can’t influence anyone else to move the price either.
Apparently not.
Frustrating, but that’s the problem, sometimes, in a beginners’ forum. People are trying to be helpful, I’m sure, but their knowledge of the relevant basics may leave rather a lot to be desired.
The misinformation itself isn’t really the problem, here.
You get some of that in all forums.
The problem is that some people don’t want to be seen to be mistaken, so however patiently and tactfully and logically and repeatedly you explain the reality, and correct the misinformation, rather than being willing to learn anything, however deluded they are they’ll actually try to argue with you about it!
It really does make it terribly difficult to help or even inform anyone, here.
Often we hear how that the fx market is not centralized therefore impossible to ‘move’ or influence same.
Everything is possible - bottom line is that currencies change based on orders to buy/sell
Us/Jpy
US 10yr will give an investor over 4.5% - Japanese 10yr less than 1% - wild guess where the orders lie.
Ueda didn’t say the ‘intervention’ word Friday - again where were the orders.
The BOJ often use words that in turn cause traders to use orders that in turn move the fx market.
Now suppose tomorrow were to be a Japanese holiday and suppose Japanese bankers/traders are taking a lttle lie in - what then can possible move Yen
I did say that I’m working on some theories and I’m not sure if it could be possible. My opinion is unbias and I speculate any given ideas. I don’t care if I’m right or wrong, I’m trying to understand concepts.