Basically, that is correct.
Some time ago, someone on this forum asked whether all the retail forex traders in the world would move the market, if they all happened to take the same position in the same pair at the same time. It’s interesting to think about, but it’s so hypothetical that it can’t be answered.
Nevertheless, 3½% is still just three-and-a-half percent. And that’s all we are.
We’re not David facing Goliath. We’re more like a mouse facing Goliath.
A broker can bet against you, if that’s his business model.
A true STP broker (as FXCM claims to be) does not operate a dealing desk in which they pick and choose which customer positions to trade against; rather, they aggragate all open customer positions, and offset the aggregate with their liquidity provider(s).
This aggregation is a massive data-processing chore, which must be done continuously in real time, and consequently is done by computer algorithms. The main objective of aggregation is to determine the broker’s net exposure to each foreign currency (versus the broker’s native currency), and to eliminate that exposure, by offsetting (hedging) it upstream.
If a market maker broker chooses not to offset certain customer positions, it’s because he believes that those customer positions will be losers, and he sees no reason to offset the profit which will flow to him, if and when those customers realize their losses.
There is nothing inherently evil about this decision on the part of the broker. He has as much of a right to speculate in the currency market, as you do. If you freely choose to enter a position which the broker thinks is stupid, then it’s perfectly legitimate for him to profit from your loss — so long as he doesn’t cheat you in any way.
Are there ways that a dishonest broker can cheat you? Of course. But, “market maker” does not mean “dishonest broker”.
On the other hand, it can be argued that a market maker has more opportunities to cheat you (if he chooses to be dishonest) than an STP broker or an ECN broker has.
You have used the word [I]casino[/I] a couple of times in this thread.
At the retail level, the forex market is purely a small speculators’ market, and in that respect it very much resembles a casino. The question “is retail forex gambling” is endlessly debated on this forum, and others. And the battle-lines are always drawn between two factions: (1) those who object to gambling on religious or emotional grounds, who nevertheless want to trade forex, and therefore say that retail forex is NOT gambling; and (2) those who don’t have a religious or emotional bias against gambling, who say that retail forex looks like gambling, feels like gambling, and pays off like gambling — and therefore it’s gambling.
If you have issues with gambling in general, or with casinos in particular, you shoud study and resolve the question “is retail forex gambling”, based on your own set of values. Trading is hard enough, without carrying around some vague sense of guilt in the back of your mind.
Oanda is a market maker. They say so right on their website.
A market maker may, or may not, include all customer positions in their aggregation (as I described to [I]loganperillo[/I] in my reply, above). An STP broker, or an ECN broker, on the other hand, will aggregate everything.
Spreads (which you also referred to) are charged by all types of brokers. Brokers transact business with their banks based on the wholesale BID/ASK prices offered to them by the banks. The difference between the wholesale ASK price and the wholesale BID price is the wholesale spread, and (at a minimum) all brokers pass those wholesale spreads on to their retail customers. Most brokers add a retail mark-up to those wholesale spreads (say, 1 pip on each side), and those marked-up spreads are the ones we pay. The broker’s profit is the mark-up (not the entire spread).
No. When the market reacts to news, more than likely 96½% of the spike in supply or demand comes from players other than the retail forex sector. But, that doesn’t mean that all the action is banks trading with each other. On the contrary, banks’ proprietary trading desks — like the retail forex sector — represent a small percentage of a very huge market.
When the market reacts to news, the major drivers are large speculators; and the minor drivers are bank proprietary traders (acting as speculators), and small retail speculators.
Essentially absent from the action are the multinational corporations who actually have commercial interests in the currency market. Almost without exception, they don’t speculate in the currency market. Instead, they use the currency market (1) to hedge against currency risk associated with their international operations, and (2) to convert funds either for deployment elsewhere in the world, or for repatriation to their home countries.
For a multinational corporation to try to scalp 100 pips out of the market’s reaction to an NFP report would be tantamount to gambling with the company’s money. Once again, there’s that issue of “speculating = gambling”.