It sounds like you have a trend following strategy that goes short on dark cloud cover candles in a pullback where a couple of oscillators clock "“overbought”, and that goes long on piercing patterns in a throwback where oscillators signal “oversold”.
Is that a viable strategy? Maybe. You could do worse. I think you’re on to something when you say: “everything signal was met…then also it happened in unexpected way.” Your chosen method - whether this or something else - can and will produce bad “signals”. Your money management has to prepare you for minimizing risk when “it happened in an unexpected way.”
However you get out of the current situation, even if you recover the $3800, hopefully this experience makes clear that money management is critical to learn about and abide by because the market WILL move against you, no matter your method. Adjust your stop sizing, trade smaller size so that you can withstand larger stops if you feel their too constrictive, etc.
Long 156.28
Long 156.14
Price
Short 154.55
Short 154.51
As price moves up, longs improve, shorts deterioriate; as price moves down, shorts improve, longs deterioriate. Assuming consistent position sizing across all orders, this creates a hedge: for every pip won long, a pip is lost short, etc. Drawdown and account equity remain stagnant as a result.
Reading his first post, he made a long order, AFTER it went bad (~3800) he went and made short order. That’s not a hedge in my books. This are just 4 bad trades.
Loss still at -3800 even after putting on “2 lots of hedging” - by “running”, I’d assume that means it’s a floating loss…“when to close thes 4 position”… The source of the confusion was/is how to flatten the hedge without loss.
One way or another the net result is the same, though.
You ain’t going to get me to contradict you on the “traded bad” thing, and I have never accepted the retail forex usage of the “hedge” as commonly used. That said, he went long and then he went short the same instrument in the same size. I would call that flat, but some folks insist on calling it “hedged”.
An other strategy to trade, don’t trade xxx.JPY because you start with [B]156[/B].xx. Trading with [B]1[/B].xxxx currency’s $ goes further.
This a joke, right? If USD/JPY moves 1% it’s the same as EUR/USD moving 1%, assuming equal sized positions. If you’re going to argue that EUR/USD moves larger (on a % basis) more often than USD/JPY then I hope you have the figures to back up the assertion.
I think it’s a lost cause. Good traders are telling him to walk away and figure out what he’s doing and he’s hunting around for new strategies to try, as if that was the problem. Denial all the way to the poor house man :rolleyes:
I have made the same mistake as you on this pair even resulting in a margin call. You have to have a stop loss for this pair. I am not sure what you will decide to do about your losses but have a suggestion that might help get your money back and then some. I trade GBP/JPY almost exclusively now and find that the Inside Bar/Outside Bar method works best for this. Read “Between 40-100 pips per day” in the “Free Forex Trading Systems” section in these forums. All you need as an indicator in Stoch (8,3,3) with a level at 20 and 80. Look at the outside bars as noted in the forum and when stoch is at 20 and curving up, then go long, when at 80 and curving down go short but doesn’t have to be exactly at 20 or 80 but around 20 and 80 is ok. Use the 15 min charts and I like to have a TP of 25 pips, and SL about 40 pips. If you stick around and watch the trade you could save yourself a bit of money by closing the order early if you notice stoch not moving in your favor any more as this could indicate a fake out. Other than that generally the trades will work in your favor. Try this and let me know how it works for you.
