This could be different depending on if you have a lot of breakeven trades as well.
Just to give you an example if you had a system with an average of 10R:R a failure rate of 80% and win roughly 20% of the time it would work much better in the long run.
(10x0.2)-0.8=1.2
Basically what I’m saying is you are in the right place with probabilities, but you have fallen into the trap of thinking perfecting your analysis and getting a higher probability of wining will make you more money.
All a high probability system does is give you the illusion of understanding over the markets and feeds your ego (your need to be right).
I disagree with you though! I am not feeding my ego at all, I have undertaken sensitivity analyses by simply narrowing the stop loss to the point of lowering WR up to 60% and by extension increasing RRr up to 1.1 and finding the equity trail only reaching 93% of those set by these parameters.
I am going with this system because it gives me the best returns based on the large amount of data I have already collated.
RRr it is at 0.77 [B]as an average only[/B] The average is brought down to this level on 25% of successful trades due to the use of a trailing stop. Without the trailing stop, my losses are much larger, naturally.
Also what form of trailing stop are you using? This is really important for getting random big wins if the market goes hard through your take profit in the direction of your trade.
No, only on particular trades where a certain price is permeated, at which point any retracement would lead to a failed trade. This is calculated and based on back data obviously. I set my profit at fibonnaci points 100 and 128% depending on volatility.
Would it be less of a waste of time to feed the ego of a delusional noobie?
I said you’ll stop posting because you will. I said you will lose >33% of your equity because you will. I like to be right, that’s why I’m in this business.
The market operates like a pyramid scheme essentially. The less experienced, less informed players (ie. You) pay the more experienced, more informed players. As soon as you admitted to me and the forum that you were new, and have no live trading experience, it was very easy to figure out which way the money would be flowing
If you’re out to prove that inexperienced traders lose money, there’s really no need.
But if you’re out to put on a show, well by all means, Please Proceed:
C’mon quickpipslip, you’ve got 15 posts on here, and without a myfxbook link to a few hundred thousand in trading profit you’re as new as everyone else here. If this forum host does crash & burn, then so be it, but I don’t know if you need to put your negativity in here?
Surely with your worldly and vast knowledge of trading profitably you’ll have some positive contributions to make without the negativity? Lift your game in this forum, or you’re free to leave surely and rake in all the profits from the zero sum game traders who are giving them up to you.
I just realised one thing about your system…if your spread/commissions and your average slippage per trade are more than .24RRr your system will probably not make much money(unless you took slippage and spread/commissions into account in back tests and paper trading)…and I’m thinking these might be quite high actually because of the frequency you are trading.
Hi Andrew, I am a newbie who has been trading demo for the last 2 months and am about to go live, I have learned a great deal from demo trading the biggest thing demo is nothing like live trading. I have learned that mainly through this forum.
Many traders and pip school will tell you that you need to open a small live account first, mainly to test how you deal with the psychology of trading your own hard earned cash. You have jumped in with a huge amount of cash and lost trades through psyching yourself out. IMO I think you could have avoided that by opening a small account and traded that first which would have reduced the emotion on your trading.
I have learned from your post already that I need to really think about the size of my first account, big enough to hurt a little bit but not to big it affects my family. Obviously the amount would be very different for each trader.
FX IMO is not a con and don’t see how your post can prove otherwise however everyone is entitled to their opinion.
I wish you the best of luck and will continue to follow with great interest.
I made the most relevant contribution of the entire thread. He’s performing an experiment to answer the question “Can people with no experience make money trading?”. I gave him a direct answer. I’m answering his question without him having to lose a cent of his hard earned money.
It is only negative from your perspective because you don’t have the experience to know the answer to the question!
No, feeding my ego is not necessary. I have a successful career,a pretty wife and I can afford to lose whatever money I put on the line. I don’t need your applause nor do i need your negativity, you are an irrelevance. Simply some bloke with too much time on his hands and so trolls around projecting his own bitterness at his own system failings on others.
As I say, an irrelevance and in that light, this conversation has ended as you offer nothing of substance.
Cheers fella, enjoy following my progress or lack there-of.
Cheers Daren! I am glad my own failings helped you, that is the idea of this thread! To illustrate the faux-pas of a new trader. 3% was far far far too much and have learned a brutal lesson with that first failed trade. Don’t make the same mistake. I will be trading like this for the next 12 trades, at which point I will drop the R if still not comfortable.
As for the ‘not con’ thing… I will be suspicious if a successful system all of a sudden fails at the time I begin. Far too early to say, especially as my own failures to date have been through my own lack of discipline.
That is what you should be taking from my fiest week of trading. No discipline = failure.
All slippage and commission is taken into account. What would you think is a minimum healthy APpT. Even though I disagree with you somewhat because as long as the EV is positive, it is profitable and that is all that matters. My own discipline is the only hurdle standing in thew ay, but that is business for you, in whatever walk of life.
You have given me food for thought, and so I am grateful! The w% would have to drop to 55% for me to begin making a loss though so not too concerned.
I am currently in the process of tweaking this system to the extent that it gives me an APpt of £293 or 0.38 which is obviously better but the data has not been made water tight yet. Anyway, as I asked… what would be seen as ‘decent’?
Good luck, Andrew! I’ll follow this thread to see how you do over the months. Care to elaborate on your system a little?
I’ve never done live forex trading, only demo so far but I have done quite a bit of live online poker playing and I do find the amount you’re using does affect you emotionally. I noticed a significant difference in how I played a “cheaper” buy-in than with a higher one. It was like an entirely different game.
0.38 is definitely decent and .24 is definitely ok to trade, if you have taken slippage etc into account. I guess you just have to trust in your system and follow it and it should(but there is always the possibility it will not) give you a decent profit. Just remember if you don’t try and just follow your system exactly you will never know if it really works or not.
Best of luck mate
One more question, How many signals do you get a week for this system? A .24 system which has loads of signals is actually pretty good!
Good grief, not following the system to the letter will destroy my equity base. Funny how it was the intention all along until I actually started! Dropping the equity risked per trade by a third has helped me though. Ye, I enter 3.4 times per week on average (according to back data and paper trading).
For the record, what you said gave me food for thought but it is about trade-offs usually and the high win rate of this system nullifies (in theory) large drawdowns that come from consecutive failures. I recommend (in my non-qualified opinion) to take the large Win Rate and smaller Expectancy Value initially until the equity base grows to a level where one can swallow larger drawdowns from smaller Win Rates with larger EVs. Your advice has led me to this conclusion. I will eventually narrow the SL (to a WR of 55%%) and increase the EV (to around 0.6), but I do not fancy absorbing high number of consecutive failed trades just yet.
