Canadian Dollar Rejected at 20 day SMA

After bouncing from just ahead of 1.1000, the USDCAD rallied to the 20 day SMA but was rejected there Friday. Still, "1.1000 is the 261.8% extension of wave 1 (1.1879-1.1562). With a measured objective at 1.1000, deeply oversold daily RSI, and ATR declining (from 79 to 72) since 4/30, it is likely that the USDCAD has put in an intermediate term low at 1.1005.

A 4th wave correction will bring the USDCAD up to Fibonacci resistance between 1.1199-1.1318 before a 5th wave completes the bearish pattern below 1.0927." The decline from 1.1168 is most likely just the B wave of an A-B-C correction. One more rally leg should unfold before the USDCAD completes the longer term 5th wave under 1.0927.