The Canadian economy is heavily influenced by the health of its largest trade partner (the US); but domestic factors are ultimately more influential. This creates an interesting situation for Friday. The US labor data is due at 8:30 EST; but the Canadian data will release a full hour-and-a-half beforehand.
Therefore, if the Statistics Canada data should disappoint for volatility; we could still see significant action if the US reports point to a recovery or plunge in demand from the American consumer. Alternatively, surprises from both could produce significant chop or even a standout trend. Looking at the official consensus, the net change in employment for August is expected to be a 15,000 contraction – significantly better than the previous month, but the fourth net loss in so many months. Though, just like it is with the US data, the unemployment rate likely holds the greatest potential. The percentage of jobless unexpected held at the more than 11-year high 8.6 percent in July; but forecast once again call for a jump to 8.8 percent. Finally, we should also take note of the Ivey PMI business spending report due at 10:00 EST.