With Catalonia’s elections just hours from now. o decided to stay frosty on euro/usd to know the outcome just like the Scot/British time. but what y’all suggest? stay or leave and what do you think it will do to the Eurozone and the Euro in particular?
Respectfully, it’s really nothing like the Scot/British time at all: that was a [U]referendum[/U], with consequences. This was only an opinion poll, and very few people in Europe have even heard about it. Sure, the underlying issue may possibly eventually exert some influence, if things gradually develop [I]much[/I] further, but it’s no secret that the majority of Catalonians want independence and the Spanish government isn’t recognising that, for the foreseeable future?
With everything else that’s going on at the moment, I’d expect it to be totally insignificant.
Some info here:
Catalans Vote on Secession as World Leaders Warn on Risks - Bloomberg Business
Possible spike on Euro but not likely a major driver.
Not too much influence expected, as was pointed out - it’s just a poll and from what I remember a referendum was deemed illegal by the central government in Madrid.
Always good to judge event risk, if I had a current market order of any kind, SL or TP, then there is a risk of that order being hit in the thin Asian session when likely exit polls will be published.
This is not an opinion poll, it is being construed as an ‘Independence Poll’, but it is an election to choose lawmakers for the 135-seat regional assembly, in itself will not be a major ground breaker, but possible to create the conditions to cause uncertainty within the region.
Update: seems that pro independence parties have won a majority, counting not yet finished. .
In all the media I’ve looked at, it’s being construed as an opinion poll. And that’s how I construe it too. It’s very clearly not an independence poll, because even a 100% vote in favour of independence, as its outcome, wouldn’t produce independence. It has no legal status at all. Nothing depends on its outcome. It’s just a reflection of the strength of public opinion. That’s what an opinion poll [B][U]is[/U][/B], which is why the world’s media are rightly referring to it as an opinion poll.
Its outcome might possibly ease the path toward a future independence referendum (though many of the media seem to think that even that’s a bit unlikely.)
Its organisers originally [I]wanted[/I] it to be an independence poll, but the Spanish courts have already ruled against them. They’ve gone ahead with it anyway, but it’s now purely a theoretical exercise which will presumably show only that about 80% of those who vote in it “favour independence” (which, as mentioned above, is hardly a surprise).
Sorry, Peterma, but it just isn’t. Respectfully, you’re really confusing two different things, here.
Hello traders!
Thank you for raising the topic!
In the end,
separatist forces are strong now because
the belief in a USE (United States of Europe)
is at its weakest point since the ECSC was established
by the Treaty of Rome (1951): the political will is lacking,
were it not for Merkel’s sterling efforts, and the financial
argument is almost broken; migration problems are exacerbating
the situation, and you know that it is just the perfect breeding ground
for ‘nation-states’ to raise their head and play the ugly card of
cheap, patriotic autocracy.
If Catalonia were to become independent;
if Brittany were to become independent;
if the North-East of England were to have their regional assembly;
if the Northern Italian regions (with the Lega Nord) were to obtain a separate state within Italy (they tried, and failed);
if Sud-Tyrol were to become part of Austria again…
All of these miniature wars-of-independence fires burning in the minds of small provinces, regions, sub-sections,
foster a separatist, conflictual, and defensive (‘walls-up’) attitude: a Europe of nation-states.
So the referendum in Catalonia, even if may sound like a wonderful idea as a concept (like the Scottish one), and a
Romantic one at that, is in fact a sign of worse things to come, in my mind… 1939 never seemed so relevant today:
not to celebrate heroes, but to banish the death of millions happening on European soil ever again…
To spread peace around the world we must first show ourselves as a model, hold our example high and carry the torch
of peace and collaboration to enlighten others: until we will squabble in our midst, like chickens around the feeding drum,
then we will have not only the best chance to engage in old wars, but also the worst chance to convince other continents
that peace, indeed, is the way to a better future.