Chamane's trading Journal

[chamane]

First case, AUDUSD having a Hidden Divergence pattern on the Weekly chart. When an entry signal came on the Daily chart, I decided to trade in the Trading Zone (turquoise rectangle) on the 1 HR chart with a cost averaging approach. I lost 13 pips on the first trade but got them back on the second trade. I’m waiting for more entry signals, as long as MACD does not cross the 0 line on the Daily chart.

For the second case, I spotted a HD pattern on the Daily chart and entered a short trade on the 4HR. I closed the trade as price reached the risk in profit (+38 pips).

The third case was a HD pattern on the 4 HR chart. I entered on the 1HR chart and brought my stop loss at breakeven after price reached half the risk. I got stopped out with a +1 pip gain. I prefer gaining little than losing more.

[chamane]

I made four trades this week:

AUDUSD +14 pips:

NZDCHF +1 pip and NZDJPY +14 pips:

As I prefer to bring my stop loss to breakeven early, I got stopped out on NZDCHF, but not on NZDJPY.

NZDCAD +40 pips:

There were more opportunities on the 4 HR charts, I only took a few of therm.

[baemax023]

Good stuff! Congrats on your winnings!

[chamane]

Three entries this week on the 4 HR charts during hidden divergence patterns developing on the Daily timeframes.

AUDUSD: + 32 pips.

EURUSD: +34 pips.

GBPAUD: still open.

[chamane]

CADCHF. +34 pips.

[chamane]

AUDCAD: + 24 pips.

GBPCHF: -34 pips. Not very trendy at the start.

[chamane]

Starting off the week with a small gain. I brought my stop loss to breakeven early as soon as I got half my risk in profit, but price reversed too much before continuing to the downside as I expected at first. I could have made a lot more, but settled for 10 points.

[ria_rose]

It’s nice to see you’re back at it @chamane! Good luuuuck!

[chamane]

A busy week for me. I don’t have the chance to trade that often, but I’m hoping to take advantage of these sad containment days.

My first case was an error I made. It started off fine, but I didn’t follow my own rules. There was and still is a Hidden Divergence pattern developing on the Daily GBPAUD. Usually I wait for MACD crossing 0 on the 4HR chart, but I decided to enter on a bullish engulfing candle. Usually I bring my stop loss to breakeven when price reaches half the risk in profit, but I decided to let go. Price reversed and I lost 90 pips. Always stick to the rules is something I should remember. I am still monitoring the pair, there is still a bullish trend.

The other trades I made were based on HD patterns detected on the 4HR charts with AUD and NZD as based currencies. Once detected, I switch to the 1 HR chart and waited for MACD to cross the zero line. I used a RR = 1:1.

AUDCHF: + 55 pips

AUDJPY: +48 pips

AUDUSD: +52 pips

EURUSD: +27 pips. This one from a HD pattern seen on the 30 min chart.

NZDCHF: +33 pips.

A total of +125 pips so far.

[chamane]

Here are 3 links that I consult frequently and that I find important:

1. Checking the news. Always before entering a trade.
2. Single currencies. Knowing the trends.
3. Currency strength. Getting the big picture.

Those are precious tools that should help improve anyone’s trading results.

[chamane]

There were a few trading opportunities since yesterday as HD patterns were seen on the 1HR charts for the Aussie pairs. But I am concentrating on the Daily and 4 HR TF. My turn will come.

[chamane]

Last week, I made a few trades with the Aussie pairs on smaller timeframes. Three winners and two losers.

AUDCAD. -16 pips.

AUDNZD. -17 pips.

AUDJPY. +12 pips.

AUDUSD. +50 pips.

EURAUD. +40 pips.

Total for the week: +69 pips.

[chamane]

Hard to tell what is going to happen this week. My bet is that AUD, CAD, GBP and NZD have been showing a retracement lately and that they will possibly reverse to the down side soon. I would check for some bearish signals against the USD.

From www.finviz.com.

On the other hand, EUR, CHF and JPY are caught in a range situation. They are not my prime choice for trading, but EURCHF, EURJPY and EURUSD must be considered as they are showing signs of bearish trend.

From www.investing.com.

[chamane]

Unfortunately, I didn’t have the chance to trade this week. And there were lots of opportunities with the Hidden Divergence pattern on the Daily chart. I think it is worth to show them because they repeat themselves week after week. One of the toughest thing I found when I first tried to trade HD patterns was the right moment to enter a trade. When a divergence starts, it can go on for many candles and still remain a valid pattern. I used to enter too early and was getting stopped out consequently. That is why I am using MACD zero line cross on the next lower timeframe as a trigger signal. It is a clear no brainer signal. In fact, it is easier to check the signal first and then switch to the next higher timeframe to see if there a HD pattern developing. If so, the odds of success are good. So in the charts below, I first check the MACD cross on the 4HR chart and confirm on the Daily timeframe the HD pattern. The blue vertical line shows the same time on both timeframes.

So Zilt for me this week, but I certainly hope to enter a few trades next week.

[chamane]

First trade this week, a 37 pip winner. A Hidden Divergence pattern spotted on a 4 HR chart. I entered after the cross of MACD, a retracement and the cross of a support line on the 1 HR timeframe. There was also a bearish regular divergence pattern on the 1HR TF.

[chamane]

Here, I just wanted to share some guidelines I wrote a while ago. Some kind of nutshell on the way I analyze charts.Hidden Divergence - Chamane’s Guidelines.pdf (458.1 KB)

[chamane]

I entered GBPCAD long even after those big candles, but I kept my stop loss tight. I decided to close the trade being at the end of the week and seeing price reaching a resistance level. A 38 pip trade totaling +75 pips for the week. My objective is 100 pips/week, so I am not very far from it.

Actually, the pair has entered a Trading Zone (light green rectangle). Following a Cost averaging approach, we can now enter bullish trades on the 15 min or 30 min charts as long as MACD is kept positive on the 4 HR chart. We’ll see next week for entry signals.

[chamane]

On the 4HR timeframe, here is what I see as probabilities for next week:

• Bullish currencies:

CHF

JPY

• Neutral currencies:

AUD

GBP

USD

NZD

• Bearish currencies:

CAD

So I’m going to pay special attention to short CADCHF and CADJPY. But things can change, we’ll see. Actually there was a bearish signal on both pairs on the 4HR charts as MACD crossed the zero line. As I didn’t take the call, I will rather trade them in the (aqua) Trading Zone on the 15 min charts.

[chamane]

First trade this week. I entered short on the cross of the MACD zero line on the 4 HR chart. When I looked at the Daily timeframe, there was a clear Hidden Divergence pattern and a clear downtrend. I got out at as price reached what I think is a strong support level. A +57 pip trade.

[chamane]

I entered long on the AUDNZD 4 HR chart when MACD crossed the 0 line as there was a Hidden Divergence pattern developing on the Daily chart. Shortly after, price reversed and MACD crossed the 0 line again, so I closed the trade with a -19 pip loss. Then I entered again, but I closed the trade shortly after with +3 pips, because I didn’t like the way it was behaving.

I also entered short on the bearish cross of MACD on the 4HR timeframe (EURAUD) as there was a Hidden Divergence pattern developing on the Daily chart. I could have stayed longer, but I figured I was close enoutgh to my personal goal, so I quit.

Altogether, +57 pips - 19 pips + 3 pips + 58 pips equals +99 pips for the week. Right on target (or close). In all those Daily HD opportunities, I prefer to trade a lower timeframe like the 30 min chart to take advantage of the Cost Averaging principle with more trades and higher odds of success, but my work doesn’t allow me to do that yet. Whenever I can, this is my prime choice.