Chance of success

Thank for you answer, I just wanna make sure I’m not going to keep on spending a huge amount of time and, possibly money, for something just not reachable for a mere mortal like me.
Building my own strategy, adjust, readjust, that’s exactly what’s exciting


Thanks you @SovoS, that’s was a very constructive answer, certainly make me more confident on the fact I have a chance of success and encourage me to dip deeper into my long trading journey :grin:

I agree with you, my first step will be finding out what kind of trader will suits me the most … how the heck I’m going to that, I have no idea but will find out. The first focus will be on protecting as much as possible the capital i will add on my account and keep learning.
I’ve bought some books, look at the lot of websites but I must say, for learning, the pipsology school is the best so far, is incredibly complete, just to put me on the right path. That’s what I believe.

I’m not afraid about making effort, spending time and sacrifice, I like challenge, it’s on the psychological part that have no idea of how good I can manage that…
I’m French, and dreamt to live in Japan. Few years back I took the step, start learn Japanese and English in the same time. I lived in NZ, Australia first and now I’m living in Japan. Still have work to do on the language but my objective is achieved (not 100% but nearly)
So now I need a new big challenge, I don’t know I must like making my life complicated :joy:

Thanks for your advice, and will keep watching the forest then :wink:

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Hi @charlotte_daily , thanks for you answer.

I believe that a large number of those 90% are inflated by gamblers , people who believe in Santa klaus and people who have been brought into the market by influencer making them think that they will be rich within a year.
And the rest of them, may not have the right personality for such job.

I’ll take the necessary time to educate myself , I’ve been learning for almost 6 months and will do extra 6 months or more if necessary :grin:


Hello @steve369 , thanks for your answer.

I’ve heard about this kind of strategy, instead of spotting where are going the biggest fishes, spotting where everybody is place their stop loss.
Have your leant that by yourself on experience?

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Yes, exactly. this social media thing and its influencers portray trading as something like fantasy word where you pour yourself a coffee and make money by just clicking. They have no understanding of real market/trading/etc, etc.

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I agree with you on that. It’s like they’re having their heads in the clouds. They don’t realize that this thing—trading—is not a game and should be taken seriously. All they know is that’s what those influencers show them.

I spent three years developing my trend trading strategy until I am now comfortable.

For example, on an upward trend trade I seek out a previous resistance zone where there is a probability that the order flow would move the price action up to a similar place. I always use pivot points as a price action guide.

Therefore I place my T/P before the losing traders blow their trades, and I set my S/L at an opposite equal distance below to cater for small retracements on the way up.

It’s brought me a positive probability of c.55% winning trades. Placing T/P is the most critical because it is a slight edge over just 50-50 guesswork.

Hope that helps.


I fully support folks who are trying to learn, I’m there myself! However, I think it’s important to be realistic about reward:risk ratios, and factor in how much capital you have to speculate to determine if it makes sense at this point in your life / career.

Starting with $1500, its recommended that you only risk 1 - 2 % of your capital on each trade. Lets say you are finding winners with 2:1 ratios (very generous) and winning 60% of your trades (again very generous for a beginning trader). If you’re looking for trades on a daily timeframe, you’ll probably spot 2 -3 high probability setups per month. So you’re netting $100 - 120 per month, pre-tax, fees, etc…

So as an intellectual exercise, thats fine, but dont expect to even match a minimum wage job in terms of income potential with such a low capital amount.

Not trying to discourage but cite some realistic figures. Like a DYI youtuber I like says, if you have low capital to start with, invest in yourself (courses, certificates, etc) vs. investing in the market, is typically the way to go.

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Absolutely, trading requires more than just intelligence. It’s about discipline and adaptability. With that in mind, here’s a wise question:

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Yes, I’ve heard of that strategy, which involves identifying areas where traders place their stop-loss orders.

Well, I disagree. :joy: I was laid off in my 40s and decided to change careers by attending a 6-month technical training school. My friends and ex-coworkers said nothing at the time. A few years later, I was unable to get a job and gave up. And then my friends and ex-coworkers started telling me that they didn’t think it would work out. So everyone knew except me! I wish they had discouraged and/or stopped me BEFORE i started attending the school. Later, whenever someone thought about attending that school to change careers, I explained WHY it wouldn’t work.

It sounds like you have tried to make some good come from your own bad experiences in order to help other people. All you can do is tell people what you know and that’s what you did.

I have sympathy with you trying to start another career in the 40’s years - not easy. What lessons did you draw from the failed training idea?

@steve369 as a beginner, every information are welcome.
But before reach that level of guessing where the herd are likely to place their stop loss will require me some time…
I’ll keep that in mind anyway, some article talk about it. Cheer :+1:

@kpizza88 thanks to share your point of view, but like I explained when opening the thread I don’t have huge expectations.
I have a steady job in which I’m totally feel fine and feeling safe enough. At that point I’m not enrolling in the trading to be subsequently a full time trader.
If in 5 or 6 years, I find out that I’m very, very good at it, I might consider it, maybe, but that not in my plan right.
Trading is more a new challenge in my live, but later on, earning a little bonus, like a 300~500$/months will be highly welcome tho !

As per trading profit, well I’m first learning how to not loose money, and I’m far from thinking to make 120$/months at the beginning.
I have in mind making like 20~30$/months if I become profitable, from that, I’ll let these money inflate my account and gradually add money from my job income.
Step by step, I’m not in rush

@froghunter Hi there ! Thank you to share your experience here and I send you all my sympathy to you… I hope situation got better for you.

So you’ve intended technical trading courses in order to find a job? What job? Trader?
Unless having big master degree or more in financial or economic area I reckon that’s impossible to find a job as a trader. Trading job could be done only in hedge-fund, bank and so forth… they are certainly ain’t to hire somebody with 6 months technical trading course.

The question of this thread isn’t that, I’m talking about retail trader, for your own.
I wanna hear from somebody who like me, past years didn’t have any knowledge in trading and now, after a stormy path and few years later has became profitable.

@froghunter just for additional thoughts,
I’ve learn in my beginning that trading, especially forex, is not for unemployed, people who struggles with money, gambler ect… (not saying is your case, just stating what I learn and what also sounds logic to me)
This must be taken seriously, with as steady job with a safe revenue, and a sound financial base.
A carrier as retail trader can be considered but after years of experience and a portfolio well diversified.

Let me explain it from a different perspective, I come from a high end consulting background, let’s say you target $160k per year then you have these options at benchmark which is 20%, normally per year, in Forex, in Stocks it’s 2% with benchmark per month (lack of leverage).

800k capital at 20% per year
200k capital at 20% per quarter
80k capital at 20% per month
20k capital at 20% per week
5k capital at 20% per day

For 20% per month you need to use algos, processes, methodology which cost $100,000s to create, no one on here will have done that, the past week I was trading a new $20k algo which generated 20% per day and compounded 200% for the week on a smaller account, it was hard work even with the algos.

However the cost of creating that algo was $100,000s and more, your profits are directly proportionate to the amount of time, effort, and capital you spend, for example if you spent $40k for a system you should within one year be able to target $150k to $200k/yr on $80k capital (per month).

If you spend $400 in theory you should be able to target $1.5k to $2k per year in a year, but the markets don’t work that way, money is designed to make money so you will be lucky to generate $150-$200, most don’t, this is just how it works, anyone who disagrees never made the reference numbers per year.

If you can consistently make 1-2% per month you have beaten more than 95% of all other traders.


I was replying to @this_is_ando’s post about Chinese Proverb.

Also, I said “technical training school”, NOT TRADING. You just assumed TRADING. :upside_down_face:


that was about two decades ago and i moved on. i am doing just fine today.