Channel Trading: Viking1961 500 step system

Primers are an addition to the regular trades, not a replacement. You set your regular buy/sell every 50 pips regardless. If however your channel is getting lopsided, you can use primers to help balance it (or just make money faster assuming you read the trends correctly, but that’s always through regardless of system ;-).

So, an additional trade every 30 pips, with TP at 100 will increase you regular profit from 9.2$ (2 trades of TP 50 using 0.01x25) to 18.2$ and another +9.2$ in open trades, or simply put, you triple the profits for every 100 pips movement in the same direction. If direction shifts and your SLs are wrong, you will of course triple your losses instead - hence the trailing SL strategy.

Using 1.5850 and a sharp drop as an example you would open these trades:
Buy 1.5854 Normal
Sell 1.5850 Normal
Sell 1.5850 P1
Sell 1.5820 P2
Buy 1.5804 Normal
Sell 1.5800 Normal
Sell 1.5790 P3
Sell 1.5760 P4
Buy 1.5754 Normal
Sell 1.5750 Normal
Sell 1.5730 P5

Greenlanding works great if the cable moves up and down in a few hundred pips range, but if it suddenly changes to a completely different level, it will take some time before the profits from regular variations in the rate at the new level will cover the cost of all the trades you placed against the movement while getting there. A continous rate change (not likely to happen without any retracements as this is FX not stocks, but still, we’re talking math here…) of 1.000 pips will need an investment of 1.335$ at x25 and 0.01 lots. In the same movement you will only earn 92$, leaving a drawdown on your balance of 1.243$ (not a loss, but a balance drawdown). Once the cable settles at the new level you will start to earn back that money 4.6$ at a time. That is unless you run into a margin call in the mean time and the broker starts closing your trades, or you don’t have the money to open new trades at the new level. The 0.006% drawdown per pip is your warning that you are facing this situation and you either have to add more money to your account to finance the expansion of your channel’s range, or use primers to make money faster.

As to your second question, primers are dangerous, no doubt about it, especially initially while not having a SL. I would probably include a SL of 25 or so on OrderSend. I think the “auto” mentioned in the dox are just a result of the limited abilities of eToro’s WebTrader. Michael is so good at this that he places large primers frequently, but even he runs into losses, and unless he’s hospitalized like last week, his losses are “always” misplaced primers.

If you have sufficient funds in your balance to cover the whole range of movements the cable takes, great, no need for primers. However, the actual funds needed to secure a channel (swap not included) are:
1.000 pips: 1.243$
2.000 pips: 4.301$ (the 2.000$ suggested is based on probabilities for profits before large level changes I guess)
3.000 pips: 9.359$
4.000 pips: 16.417$
5.000 pips: 25.475$
6.000 pips: 36.533$

And this is also why you shouldn’t use primers frequently, only when neccesary. In theory, you can change the variables and open new regular trades at any level, let’s say 25 pips instead of every 50 (I think muji3009 does this). Now, to cover a 2.000 pips wide channel you’ll need 16.601$. By doubling the amount of trades, the buffer needed quadruples, and so must your primers if the rate level changes rapidly.

According to the stats at Google finance, GBP/USD had a top of 2.0220 (March 14th 2008) and a bottom of 1.3764 (January 23rd 2009) meaning a total drop of 6.456 pips in less than a year. If this had happened in a single continous movement (which of course it didn’t) you would have needed 42.812$ (plus swap costs) at 50 pips level to cover the whole channel. I’ve run my EA through strategy tester (I have no primers logic included) from 1971 and it came through just fine, but with a start at January 1st 2008 is fails completely. Will GBP/USD move like this in the near future? Not likely. Would I stake my retirement on the range staying within 2000 pips for the next two years? Hell no!

Personally I am looking to stay at micro-lots for much longer than the Greenlander strategy suggests in order to build up cash for a significantly wider channel than 2.000 pips, but that’s my low risk attitude. Others will differ. Well placed primers can build up your buffer faster, and will lessen the impact of large movements significantly, but they also add risk as you insert discretionary trading into the system.

I would therefor split the EA into two “parts”, the regular trades that always trigger, and an additional set of functions, maybe a script, that can set primers. I’m not good enough at technicals yet to provide any meaningful directions on what kind of indicators should be allowed to trigger primers. I would like to have the function included in the EA (maybe it can be turned on or off in an external variable), but as long as I have the possibility, I would just ask Michael before turning it on. A warning that it’s time to consider primers would be great in any case. And I couldn’t place the orders/SL fast enough without a script either.

The dox suggest only setting orders against the movement when you get to the edges of yor channel (no sells at the bottom, no buys on top). This makes sense for a strict 2.000 pips channel, but leaves you vulnerable to channel collapse if the rate settles above/below your channel. Placing primers at channel extremes would exacerbate this, so I wouldn’t reccommend it, but then again my paranoia always wants a larger channel fully funded. I’m still working on a formula to calculate how large a channel can be before the swap eats up the profits so I guess I’m in a “worst case scenario” mode these days :wink:

As for the “Hour-glass” table, the Account cells throws me off. My understanding from the rest of the table is that you place an order (in his example 800$) at 1.5850, then another at 1.5820 etc. but how 800$+800$ can be 1.000$ is beyond me, so to come to grips with primers, I decided to ignore the Account cells. Otherwise it makes no sense to me at all. Also, there is absolutely no way I would be willing to increase lot size on the magnitude suggested as the movement progresses. To me this setup is good salesmanship, but crappy math that will leave teethmarks in your seating area more often than not.

Re
Dennis

Found some more info on primer sizing. “ZeppDK: You need more units in the primers combined than there are units in the opposite direction”. So if you have 4 buys and the rate is falling, you’ll make 1 primer of the same size as the 4 buys (or 1 main of 50% and 2 secondary of 25% each I guess). If you have 12 buys, you need to triple the primer’s size etc.

Michael then got technical with main, secondary and subprimers…
Snipped from eToro:

viking1961: Yes, primers are very difficult to administrate due to retracements, expectations etc. You normally use them when you have 40% of your equity left…You can then choose to change the equity if you believe in a continued down trend, or just to “carry” the trades. If you loose 4 usd per pip then you should make primers of each 2 usd, with a 50 pip distance, then use , secondary primers of 1 usd in between the primers at 25 pips of 0.4 usd. and then you can use minor sub-primers of .2 usd at other intervals…just remember never to get stuck with any of the top primers, and close secondary and sub-primers always in profit zone… Simple when you make a secondary primer of 0.4 usd then you open a sub.primer after 20 pips and set the SL of the secondary primer in 4 pips profit. and also ONLY have 1 main-primer running. When you open the next after 50 pips, you first set the sl at 4 pip profit.

viking1961: After 150 pips the equity has changed from going in minus to going in plus…However if you don´t think the trend is lasting then just use the main-primers without secondary or sub-primers. Then you just keep the balance. Of course the space between the upper and lower primers will be of a less value, but since we work with escalating positions, it won´t be long before the primers will have an average value !!..Elementary my dear Watson :slight_smile:

End snip.

I read this as rather a different strategy than the “hour glass” doc. Sounds to me, based on this, that primers should not have TP, just a trailing SL. Or he could mean that a main primer runs for 50 pips with a trailing SL, then it’s closed before another main primer is opened. In between “secondary” and “sub” primers can be set. What do you think? (I’ll try and simulate this in Excel and see if some inspiration pops up).

Re
Dennis

Nice explanation Dennis.
I am thinking of programming the primers as explained below(still just an idea in my mind…I hope it can be translated into the program just as effectively):

  1. usePrimer value: If set to true then primers will be used else not.
  2. User defined Top and bottom level values: Eg. If you think AUDUSD will remain between 1.01 to 1.06. you can set these two values as the top and bottom of your channel.
  3. The EA will start using primers at user defined Steps.
  4. It will automatically adjust SL’s according to user defined values.

Let me know if the above idea is simple yet effective enough. The idea of primer is very good and if used effectively will boost this strategy. However as I mentioned earlier if we place two primers and price returns back to take out the first one then we run with a few pip loss and the more times we put wrong primers the more we can run into trouble. The doc in FB is an ideal scenario to prove a point but fails to mention the risk. Because currently Cable is taking a massive dive and those trading it have to use primers without a choice.

But having said all that I still think there is a lot of potential in this system and over a long period this can definitely be used as a consistent method to profit.

How do you backtest? I dont have historical data. If you have then could you pass it.

Hi Dennis,

What i can understand is that even Viking knows that primers are like superpowers which can translate to big profits but if used irresponsibly can cause damage. Thus he is advising not to use too many big primers like ZeppDK states because if price retraces and takes out the TrailingSL then you are left with a primer which you opened with a bigger lot and without an SL. the only way to counter it would be to open another similar lot in the opposite direction and make a profit out of it. but that will make the system discretionary and will add problems to the equity and panic to user. Hence he advises use small primers and take out profits as soon as they are in the green however small they may be. But what he suggests is too discretionary and cannot be mechanized. We will start with a normal EA as the doc in FB suggests and then see scope of improvement.

Sounds good. I’m pretty sure primers should only be used if you hit the 0.006% or 40% equity level though. If you run it constantly, your basically just doubling up on the system itself with discretionary trades.

I use Universal FX, but couldn’t get any good statistics there, so I made a demo account at Alpari UK as I know they have data available. Using their MT client, goto Tools, History Center, find your symbol, choose M1 to get it all and press download (it’s about 200MB I think). Once that was done I simple exported the data out as a CSV and imported it into my Universal FX MT client. Then goto View, Strategy Tester and off you go. Don’t know how accurate this actually is, but if you choose “Every tick” as the model, it can’t be too far off?

Of course, testing a strategy such as this will always end in failure unless your EA includes an exit strategy as all trades are closed at the end, but watching the graphics ticking ever upwards (until the very end) is very satisfying and certainly beats the pants off my results in daytrading so far :wink: My EA dosen’t include automatic increases in lots so I don’t know it that could break it. So far it just looks like a really good system that should pay off well if you don’t get too greedy.

Re
Dennis

Agree Dennis.

Could you zip and attach EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD csv files to this thread. I dont have an Alpari account.
I did however previously download from some webiste but I have lost them now.
many thanks if you can.

I should be able to come with the new EA by next week.

Have a good weekend all. Hopefully you guys profitted from the NFP. I didnt. Just watched and cried :frowning:

Opening a demo account is free and quick. What is NFP?

Re
Dennis

The US Non-Farm payrolls and the CAD unemployment rate just came out an hour and a half back. Look at the last hour movement on pairs like EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD etc.

Of course. I only noticed that my demo account moved up two steps on the Greenlander scale :wink:

Re
D

Thanks for all the additional explanations. I have an alpari test account. Will try this once I get the new EA, and to some demoing + backtesting.

Would be interesting to see an EA that actually uses the escalating step system as well (as per some of the excel sheets out there). Just to compare the two version to each other.

I believe there is a lot of potential here - its basically a question on working and fiddling with the details such as the primer sizes, the trailing SL’s etc. until you find a system that shows the best promise in backtesting.

And yes - I managed to grab 130 pips from NFP shorting the cable, so a good day for me, doubling my weeks profit :slight_smile:

Escalating the steps shouldn’t be too difficult (I would imagine) with the way criscross programmed the EA. My attempt at an EA read trades from a CSV file into an array (created from “Greenland Buy and Sell rates.xls”). That way I can both change the center of my channel and increase lot sizes for the “mid-term 550 pips” part (if the cable is in an acceptable range) and at step 57, 113 etc. in Excel. But of course, in a testing scenario this fails as the EA doesn’t get an updated CSV file with trades during testing and therefor uses the same rates and lots all the time. Criscross’ solution looks much better, not to mention more flexible. I’ve been using his first version since he posted it and it looks stable and effective so far. Very promising for anything named version 0 :wink:

I’m not sure automating primers will be a good idea at all, but if you can turn it on or off in an external variable (and remain close to your PC I guess), a script will help alot. Completely automatic primers sounds scary, but the rest of the system is practicly tailormade for programming.

Re
Dennis

PS! To use version 0, comment out //OpenFirstTrade(); in the init method after the first two trades have been opened (and recompile) so it doesn’t set up a second set of trades each time the EA is disconnected accidentally. I couldn’t get version 1 to fire as the initial call for placing first trades was inside a loop that isn’t reached at startup. Still a great start!

I am sorry about rev 0-1 which did not open the first trade properly.
Here is the update version 0-2 which I have fixed as Dennis pointed out.

Let me know which pairs you guys are eyeing. I am very keen on EUR/USD, AUD/USD right now because of their levels.

Greenland strategy REV0-2.zip (1.56 KB)

I’m still using GBP/USD while learning the system, but EUR/USD is the most likely candidate due to massive liquidity and frequent changes within a much shorter channel than GBP. If I ever get to a point where I can do this full time, the ozzy might be a good choice as I much prefer to sleep late :wink:

Re
D

Good luck on that sgude0. I have seen too many people that crash and burn. Just an advise, double check everything and leaving your day job would just be the last option for you.

We can’t deny it, it feels really good quitting!

Yeah I am keen on EUR/USD as well, although long term (2-5 years) I see some potential for very sharp break-outs in case of e.g. collapse of some EUR states / the EUR zone, or alternatively a worsened debt crisis in the US. But if we know how to trade our primers, that should be possible to avoid. Problem is that even with minimum lot you will need at least 3000 USD to safely trade EUR and have room to adjust SL. So its some bet without knowing beforehand if you will manage to trade it successfully.

Guys,

Attached find the third revision of the EA with primers enabled. I give a brief run down of how to use the parameters.

  1. UsePrimer: If set to true then the parameters below it will be enabled and used. If false then normal strategy will be used.
  2. ChannelTop & ChannelBottom value: Set in exact values the top and bottom that you expect the price to range. Primers will be set when open orders cross either side of this value. Please do not enter wrong values or
    reverse values (i.e. Channeltop is lower than channelbottom). This is still at experimentation stage and I have not set the EA to check for wrong entries. So please be careful.
  3. PrimerLots: Lot size of primers. My belief is that primers should be bigger than normal lots. This is the way that money can be added to equity in case of sharp breakouts.
  4. PrimerStep: This is the steps at which primer will be set. Default is 30 pips.
  5. PrimerTP: TP value of Primers. set to 100pips as default.
  6. PrimerTSL: Trailing stoploss of Primers.

Let me explain a bit how I expect the EA to function:

  1. Lets say price crosses ChannelBottom value (take GBPUSD as eg). You have set 1.5600 as channelbottom.
  2. As soon as a sell opens below 1.5600 (lets say 1.5590 according to normal strategy) EA will sense that channelbottom has been broken and it is time to place primers.
  3. It will place first primer 30pips (PrimerStep) below 1.5590 (i.e. at 1.5560) of 0.05lots (PrimerLots).
  4. The Buylimit for sell opened at 1.5590 is placed at 1.5490 (of 0.01 lots). It places Buylimits 100pips (PrimerTP) below the sell opened.
  5. As soon as sell at 1.5560 is opened, The SL of sell at 1.5590 is moved to 1.5585 (locking in +5 pips). There is another primer order placed at 1.5530 (Primerlots) and a buylimit 100pips down at 1.5460 (normal lots).
  6. When sell at 1.5530 is opened, then the following happens: SL of 1.5590 will follow a Trailing stop routine of 25pips (PrimerTSL). The SL of 1.5560 will be locked at +5 pips or 1.5555. A new primer of 0.05lots (PrimerLots) is placed at 1.5500 and a buylimit of 0.01(normal Lots) lots is placed at 1.5430.
  7. the above routine continues…

I am testing this EA now on various pairs and I recommend all of you to test it out rigorously through tough price actions like the EUR/JPY fall of 600 pips on 25th Feb, GBPUSD downtrend for the last 2 months, NFP newshour etc and see how the strategy fares. Also test it with different primerlot sizes etc and give your opinion.

If my above explanation is too confusing, then please ask questions and I will be happy to answer.

Suggestions are more than welcome so don’t hold back.

Let me put down a few concerns that I have too, so you guys can give ideas on how to overcome it.

  1. The weekend gap: Sometime price opens on mondays with a huge gap. i worry if this gap exceeds the pending orders etc then the EA will malfunction. I guess fwdtesting is the only way to find out.
  2. Changing channel values mid way: We should be able to change values of channel top and bottom every now and then. I wonder how the EA will take it. i am putting it on demo and will be testing it.

If you guys have other concerns then let me know so we can find solutions to it.

Cheers

Edit At 11pm: Guys sorry the EA is malfunctioning by opening lot of buy and sell trades when it starts. I tried to fix but am unsuccessful. Need some sleep now. But the theory I have mentioned above remains true. I will solve the glitch 2mrw morning and attach it here. Sorry for the delay.

Greenland strategy Rev 0-3.zip (2.4 KB)

Hi

I don’t agree with your interpretation of primers. My understanding of the system is that the channel should be locked, meaning you would only place shorts at the top, no buys (unless you’ve decided to expand the channel), and otherwise wait until the rate returns to you channel’s range before commencing regular trades .

Primers on the other hand should be used (as I understand it) on large sustained level changes inside your channel. F.ex. I’ve been using version 0 for a week now and it’s pretty likely we are at the bottom of the cables general range. As a result my current average is about 1.5000. If the cable starts moving up towards a more “normal” center (such as 1.5850, which I believe is Viking’s center) there will be a lot of sells placed on the way up, some of which we may not close for a very long time. If your free margin is running thin, you would place a buy primer of the same amount of units as in all the shorts (that you expect to leave behind for a long time) in order to balance the margin (or cover the expense of the open shorts).

I kind of get what you mean if you are thinking of ChannelBottom/Top as a mid-range level inside your overall channel, but to place massive trades in the extreme ends of the channel (and moving further out) breaks the whole idea of the system as I see it, so I’m not quite sure I see your current thinking is. I would guess primers would be much better moving with a trend towards the channel’s center, not away from it, but I admit, I may have completely misunderstood this.

Re
Dennis

Hi Dennis,

I will go through your reply in detail and answer tomorrow. A strange thing happened. the EA that i have attached worked fine in backtest but when put on demo malfunctioned. You may want to try and let me know.

I am going to sleep now. Will continue this tomorrow morning.

Cheers

Hi Dennis,
I have read your reply in detail and I think you are mistaken in your understanding of the system. I will write down according to my understanding and lets discuss over it.
I will use Viking’s pair GBP/USD as the example.

  1. Lets say we started exactly at the same place as Viking i.e. at 1.5850 expecting price to range between a top and bottom. This top and bottom is to be selected according to few criterias:
    A. Your own technical and fundamental analysis of where you expect price to range.
    B. Account margin
    C. Lot size/TP etc.
    Viking selected his range as 1.48 to 1.68, but my belief is that this is too big a range. I will explain why i think so.
  2. The Greenland system makes money on continuous retracements and price action within a range. If price continues to make one sided move then we would be stuck with a lot of opposite orders which will eat up the account margin and equity might drop at a rate of 0.06% per pip as Viking suggests. If this happens then we are supposed to open primers.
  3. Lets say that your tolerance or analysis of GBP/USD was to be within a range of 1.5300 to 1.6300. Hence you started the first trade at 1.5850 which is more or less close to the center. If price maintained within this range then you wouldn’t lose 0.06% equity per pip. But price broke 1.5300. hence you need to place primers.
  4. When we place primers (in this case shorts) we are opening sell orders at a faster rate than buys but we are putting a SL at the sells which effectively means that there is only one sell open at a time without a SL but there can be many buys without SL’s. This validates your statement as you mentioned below:
  1. as price forms lower lows you are taking out profits from the sells that you placed with bigger lots and opening buys of smaller lots. this will add money to your equity and preserve your account for a newer low. If price decides to retrace back to within your channel, then no worries since you have made some money with your primers first, then on the way back many buy orders that were opened have hit TP’s and the best part is you don’t have too many sell orders open. Only one sell order of the last primer opened.
  2. Another point to think is: How do you know that price will retrace back to your channel. Fundamentals can change in a jiffy and price may go to a newer range. This is where primers help you. Lets take cable again. You opened your channel at 1.5850. But your equity is below what you started since price has made a one sided move to 1.53. Lets say at 1.5300 you started placing primers. With the help of primers even when price went down to 1.49 you would have added sufficient account to your equity and hence brought your center down below from 1.5850 (maybe, just as an example). What this allows you to do is continue trading the Cable on its new range (1.49 to 1.55 for example). You dont have to stop trading and continue holding on to losing trades bcos price went above/below your initial assumed channel.
  3. This is a channel trading strategy. We have to follow price and make our strategy fit the channels. We will not be able to force price to our channel. Primers help us to move the center of our channel (the center of the hourglass as mentioned by Viking) above or below where we started if price decides to move on. That is why he states that we may start this strategy at any price and not necessarily at where he started.
  4. Very honestly primers can be placed at any time but as you mention they are best placed along a trend and if not properly managed can lead to bigger losses. When Viking mentions that you must place primers when equity is dropping 0.06% per pip - he is indirectly saying that price is making a one sided move without big retracements which is why you could not add money to your equity and you are losing a lot of equity per pip.
  5. PrimerLots is a personal thing. It is not compulsory that you double or triple the lot sizes on primers. Even a same sized primer will add to equity because of its SL mechanism and the logic that we are placing more sells than buys.

Let me know if what i say makes sense. Please dont hesitate to point out where you think my logic failed or let me know if you need more clarifications on any of my point.
I wish Viking 1961 would read this post and leave a comment for us newbies.

P.S. I have amended the glitch on the EA. One bloody bracket at the wrong place was causing the trouble. Herewith attached.
Moral - Go take rest when you are too tired.

Greenland strategy Rev 0-4.zip (2.41 KB)

I think you’re right. I was so focused on security that I would only look at primers as “dangerous discretionary trades” and hence should only be done in the “safe range” around the center, but I can find no flaws in your logic, so my initial reaction stands out as more emotional than logical (and sorely failing to get one of Viking’s “elementary, my dear Watson”). I’ll update my demo account with the new version today after I’ve gone throught the code for better understanding.

Re
Dennis