note: ur SL can be set just a little above the pivot level.
The above chart represents a trend reversal - could be say avg temperature and a seasonal change occurred - or avg vehicle speed on poor road and then joined a motorway.
Trend reversals always have a reason - something causing.
In the market that ‘causing’ is often well documented beforehand then it’s over to the techs to do their thing - in the above case the lowest low bar was immed reversed, then a few bars later the prev high was broken with ease.
That in itself is bullish but with TA always take it slow, don’t chase - price retraced - but key is it tried to make it down to that low but too many buys and too few sells.
I totally understand and agree with that, but in the strategy that I mentioned, you should first wait for the trend to reverse and then you enter positions after the first correction phase takes place, this shows the target for the correction phases, so after them you can enter the position. Do you think that will work?
Yep - not chasing - lots of positioning in a trend reversal - stops, liquidity etc.
Old timers in the pit - they had the sells that took out the buys on left side of the desk - then the other side the buys above price (in a downward trend reversal)
In your chart those buys sat above the low - good chance they had more below that right down to the low - but lack of sellers prevented price from ever reaching there - kept those but 2nd time few sellers - and finally a spike - zero sells to match the buys.
Patience is the winner.
Take care
Why do you try to see point 2. and then further the chart? Point 3 is a wish. Is it a safe knowledge that point 2 comes on and then everything goes further as it is drawn? I would not be sure. Be flexible and do what the price/market wants, not that what you imagine. (At least, a 200MA / EMA could be plotted). Please note that you simply prolonged the trendline somewhat and then finished it just because… That’s it.
I would wait for a pullback if this touches the 200 MA/EMA zone (here would be good to see different timeframes) and after bouncing from the 200 go long. But why don’t you go long after bouncing from the drawn trendline? The question is the same: what if, the price go higher and higher than point 2? Never try to find out possible screenplays more than one step. This means only the next, nothing more. In your example this point is where the trendline has drawn. Relax, no one of us is an oracle.
In such a case, if the pullback develops and makes a nice correction I used to enter a careful small countertrend trade. It is risky. If there is on the correct time frame, the 200MA and/or 200EMA will “suck” the price to check and release it. This known as the moving averages work like dynamic support and resistance levels 20 and 200 are strong but be aware, sometimes 50MA/EMA or 100 works. Check them on different timeframes, mostly 1D 4H 1H (15M 5M (3M))
One more good advice. Look the 20 EMA and MA together (e.g. light blue/dark blue). When the price bounces back from the 200 and the two 20s definitely stretching out it is time to look for entry. If the price breaks below the 200 and stays there (depending on the timeframe) it is better to go short. Changing the side of the 200EMA often indicates trend’s change on that timeframe. IThat’s why it would be helpful to see the timeframe. This picture can be any periods from a daily chart to a 5 or 60 minutes. In the first case you can go short for a few days, on the 5 or 15 minutes you may wait until the trendline. Look, I see 15 bars in the last uptrend segment (level to level). If they are 5 minutes, the active period took 75 minutes. If the candles are 1 hours the segment is almost one strong trending day.
If you’re referring to trend continuation, I believe that a breakout in the direction of the trend would be a reasonable expectation.
I believe that the two criteria mentioned above alone are insufficient for a counter-trend trade. Firstly, the definitions of Lower Low, Lower High, Higher Low, and Higher High are not well-defined, and relying solely on pivot support appears vague. A legitimate reversal would require a clear illustration of Higher Low, Higher High, Lower Low, and Lower High. Which is not clearly demonstrated in the chart you have provided.
Secondly, it is essential to consider multiple timeframes. An immediate reversal upon breaching pivotal support may simply be a significant correction. It’s important to understand that even countering the trend on a lower timeframe is still trend following when viewed from a higher timeframe perspective.
I wonder sometimes why traders develop all these scenarios when it’s all ‘guesswork’ - See Trading View platform filled with differing opinions on what is going to happen next… No offence intended.
Albeit, when I make a trending trade I open the pivot point app, to look at the candle trend price movement on the one hour and 4 hr chart, and how far it is to the next resistance zone. I have found that patience is necessary…
This simple confirment make it easy to where I place my T/P. That is, whether the chosen candle movement shows a positive profitability of being successful…
It might seem like traders are just guessing when we see so many differing opinions on platforms like Trading View. However, it’s crucial to understand that traders actually create their own scenarios based on analysis, experience, and strategy. Trading involves more than guesswork – it combines technical and fundamental analysis, risk management, and market insights to make informed decisions.
Yes, that’s why I am aiming to be on the right side of a trade, but I can never be sure what the market is going to throw at me, as I have no control over it, despite all my analysis, experience, strategy and informed decisions. Or in a nutshell, better guesswork that leads in my case to a 55% win rate.
That is logical and sounds potential of paying out, but this is a totally different strategy., the one that I just described, is different, without the use of indicators.
I think you got me wrong, I mean wait for a new trend to form and then enter positions to the same direction. I hardly disagree with entering positions in the opposite direction of the market, no matter under what circumstances, I believe you should not do it.
It totally depends on your trading style i think. there are a lot of strategy that do not require multiple time frame, however what I am currently using relays on multiple time frame analysis,
I see . . .
i agree . . .
This sounds very much like one of my strategies that I have found quite profitable over the years.
I published it here on Babypips some time ago.
Take a look and let me know what you think:
Sure mate. I will check that and tell you my honest view. and to let you know, so far, this one is giving me over 70% winning ratio.
