China talks in focus today; US calls for more flexible Chinese Yuan. The greenback’s recovery continues as outlook for the US economy has improved and investors begin plowing cash into dollar assets. The Bank of Japan has clearly indicated its concern over continued deflation and the CPI figures due on Friday may confirm this theory. The USDJPY is still intact.
News and Events:
Investors will be focused on talks between Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi and US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson today in Washington. The greenback’s recovery continues as outlook for the US economy has improved and investors begin plowing cash into dollar assets. The Euro-zone’s economic indicators remain strong, however have lost some strength compared to the improving economic outlook for the US. Today, look closely at the German ZEW economic survey results for overall euro-zone sentiment. If the Euro were to bounce back, today would be the day on the back of strong numbers and a technically set up bullish day. The figures are due at 11.00h GMT.
The Bank of Japan has clearly indicated its concern over continued deflation and the CPI figures due on Friday may confirm this theory. The carry trade has remained intact however downside risks prevail as BoJ eyes further rate increases in the long term. For now, USDJPY remains bullish.
Today’s most interesting chart is GBPJPY. The pair has found strong resistance around 240.00, but not enough to push it back down to lower lows. Bulls will buy on dips down to 238.00 for a target of 241.54.
Today’s Key Issues (time in GMT):
7.15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (APR) 0.4% vs 0.3%
7.15 CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (APR) 2.0% vs 2.4%
7.30 EUR Italian Consumer Confidence seasonally adjusted (MAY) 108.8 vs 107.8
9.00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY) 22.0 vs 16.5
9.00 EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAY) 79.0 vs 76.9
9.00 EUR Euro Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY)
9.00 EUR Euro Zone Trade Balance (MAR) 3.0B vs -1.7B
9.00 EUR Euro Zone Trade Balance seasonally adjusted (MAR)
9.00 EUR Euro Zone Construction Output seasonally adjusted (MoM) (MAR)
9.00 EUR Euro Zone Construction Output working day adjusted (YoY) (MAR)
10.00 EUR ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet Speaks In Seville
11.45 USD ICSC-UBS (MAY 19)
12.55 USD Redbook (MAY 19)
13.15 USD Treasury Secretary Paulson Meets With Chinese Officials In Washington
14.00 USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (MAY)
21.00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (MAY 20)
The Risk Today:
EurUsd the pair remains in the downward channel and is supported at 1.3458. Bears will be selling any recess up to 1.3525. From there onwards, the Euro could push a short-term recovery up to 1.3540. On the downside, Euro is targeted at 1.3370, a major support and lower channel trend-line.
GbpUsd may recover up to 1.9796 should it begin trading above yesterday’s high of 1.9756. For the time being, the pair seems to be headed downwards to a target of 1.9593, the key support level and 100% retracement to the intermediate low of the April 9th � April 18th bull market.
UsdJpy The pair remains bullish, carry trade intact. Daily RSI (14) floating at 67. As the pair moves higher, it will move into overbought territory, at which point our target of 122.20 may hit. However, momentum has already begun waning. It’s expensive to be short, but be cautious going long after 122.20.
UsdChf finding strong resistance as it moves up to 1.2360, naturally due to the upper channel trend-line and resistance level. A daily close above that level will see the pair move to 1.2440. On the downside, a break of 1.2192 would be very bearish for the pair. The market is choppy and almost strictly technical for this pair.
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Resistance and Support:
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland