Choosing A currency pair based on fundamentals

I get what you are thinking, but I disagree. The definition of Macroeconomic Fundamentals when applied to forex combines Central Banks, Macroeconomic Data and Geopolitical News.
You can hardly call it sentiment trading when prior to big impact data trading volume decreases substantially because almost all professional hedge fund traders and bank traders are required to be square leading up to the news release.

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@BAD14214

And I get what your saying but your talking short term prop traders I guess - any investor be it bank, hedge fund or the great George Soros himself isn’t going to sell out all his positions because of one measly NFP release.

Data releases of course are fundamental but on their own are pretty pointless to the big picture

When beginners talk of incorporating funnymentals into their trading, and in the next breath talk about trading off ten minute charts I get quite confused.

Fundamentals by nature happen over the medium to long term not the ultra short term

Now if as a short term trader you chose to buy currency yielding a high interest rate and sell one with a low interest rate that has a fundamental element to it

Most of the time the high yielding currency will be trending upwards so taking the long side regardless of time frame would be the better option.

Trading data releases I see as similar as trading earnings - only earnings do have more of an effect on a company’s growth prospects

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@Johnscott31
I don’t know how George Soros trades forex if he even trades it. But I have learned from an ex chief dealer from the banking industry Brad Gilbert. And I know from what he teaches banks are not trading long term trades. Instead they focus on the hourly chart and trade a combination of technical analysis and Macroeconomic fundamentals.
Due to the risk of gaps over weekends they close all positions before market closing on Friday.

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I just read about George Soros and I’m absolutely certain he too would be square with no positions leading up to NFP or any other high impact news. I understand his most famous for “breaking the Bank of England” when he borrowed massive amounts of GBP to purchase German Mark and in the space of a few hours closed out his trades making massive profit.

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Im a little sceptical of this.

I think you might be confusing position trading with traders for banks who are buying and selling on behalf of clients such as large multinationals

The aim of those traders is to make the spread on large transactions and so going home flat is in their interest.

I’m.not doubting there are large traders in the market doing what you say but I do find it a tad hard to believe that the largest deepest pockets traders are scared of even a large one day move in the NFPs

I’ve posted my thoughts on the above many times already so if you’re really interested in knowing my thoughts then I invite you to search the forum for my related posts.

I also invite you to show us how you trade using fundamentals. Walk us through your fundamental strategies. Prove us wrong! Are you up to that challenge?

To quote a famous bard, "Methinks thou dost protest too much". :smiley:

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I trade 37 pairs, mostly Majors, some commodities and indices, so pretty hard to advise you.

Good example, and I have just finished the School quiz that says that all information IS NOT contained in the price action. It excludes sentiment, and if you believe in the wisdom of the crowd, ignore sentiment at your peril.

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