Cndlstckchic Journal

I absolutely agree. To be honest, this is not the 1st time that I have encountered this problem, lol…I’m guilty of trying to get the most that I can out of a trade and sometimes that leads me to holding on longer than I should.
That thread by @Clint that I recently posted above discusses this issue as well.

Shhhhhhhh, it’s a secret. But this is a rangy market right now, very hard to pyramid 40 pips, if you add at lets say 32, well its only 8. You know that in true pyramiding you use only your current profit to pay the margin for another position, just in case, it might help. Oh did I mention it is a rangy market and trend traders will be hacked to pieces.

The Ever Playing The Ranges VIPER

Not to be argumentive Viper, but that seems like a blanket statement. On what time frame and what pairs are ranging? Surely not all of them. For example the USDJPY trade that I just got out of is clearly making lower highs and lower lows…

Well, nearly.
Your sequence went a bit wobbly for 6 weeks in the middle there which would have spoiled your cycle for a while.

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Hi no worries, but, it is my observation that you are using a textbook definition of trend, and trying to shoehorn recent price action into that definition. On your chart, 10/02/16 - 12/25/16 is a classic, swing traders trend, you can Pyramid it, and you can even let it get a little old and still make a profit.

However since ummmm, lets call it the second week of Jan 2017, it moved into a downward sloping channel, it’s not really sloping it is more like slumping, with a massive amount of chop in between. The chop can be seen by the long tails and wicks, when you see that on this fractal it is chop.

So if one were to draw some lines on this, tops and bottoms, and since it is kind of slumping down, you take shorts on the high side, you could probably preset them, and leave the longs alone. Right now one would be 2 weeks late to enter a swing short.

Oh one more thing, draw a level at the Dec top and the Aug bottom and I think you will find that the price has been floating up and down around the mean of the multi week high and low.

The Ever Enlightened VIPER

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Well Done C.

The Ever Tipping The Hat VIPER

While I am not disagreeing that this particular trend on the weekly chart was not “perfect”, it is impossible to find the perfect trend - if you zoom in to smaller and smaller time frames you’re going to find exceptions within the dominant trend. @TradeViper, I am sure that there is validity to what you are saying, but I have not yet had time to investigate your methods and examples. Tomorrow while the kids are at school, I will try to give it a shot. I need “quiet” to learn new concepts, and though I may be able to put up a post or two with kids underfeet - that is no time to learn. My reality is trying to learn, trying to make good decisions, trying to make profit, in between doing homework with kids, cooking meals, cleaning, etc. And on the days I don’t have them, I work 12 hours + commute.

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My mentor pointed out this trade (although he is more disciplined than I and probably won’t enter it unless it gets a 50% retracement), but I agree with the overall assessment and I decided to take it. Sell on EurAud. Target 1:2 minimum. Will try to get 1:3 or more, but I got in to this trade late and it didn’t retrace back to the 50% point. (At least not yet, and I looked at the hourly and 4hr charts, in my opinion it doesn’t look like it will make it back up that far due to bearish pressure). This is one of those trades I mentioned keeping an eye on last Friday, and it took off. Wish I could have had a better entry, but still feel pretty confident about getting a decent move off of it. We’ll see what happens…

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Oh rats, now I feel kinda bad and won’t sleep toninght, seriously, CC, I’m sorry and did not intend to cause any disturbance, or hard feelings, or irritation. Now with that having been said you really don’t have to respond until you have the time etc, really you don’t have to respond at all hehehehehe. I’m not Professor VIPER in the movie, “The Trading Chase”, just a guy trying to help.

Please don’t think I am trying to convince you, or that you have change anything. The whole point of my posts was to save you money, and try to get you to hit the brakes a bit and consider that just maybe following a long trending plan might not be the best way at this time.

The Ever Chow For Now VIPER

No worries, that’s not what I meant at all. I am just saying that I would like to fully consider and take in what you’re saying, but I need the free time to focus - and that is in short supply.

Saw this trade possibility on another forum, what say you all? Broken trendline on daily chart, at resistance…looks promising to me. I’m thinking of entering if it breaks the low of that bull candle from yesterday.

UPDATE: actually, if it breaks the low AND comes back up and retests the support as resistance, then I would look for a signal.

Another trade possibility (again, not mine - I don’t like to take credit when others are the ones who spotted it - but it doesn’t hurt to share). We have previous support being tested as resistance. And an inside day candle set up, so, if today’s candle breaks the low of yesterday’s inside candle - we are likely to see a bearish move.

Regarding that EURAUD (I never trade this so don’t take these comments seriously):

My short term method (4H) does show vulnerability to the downside but 2 things would concern me at this stage:

  1. on the daily, it managed to close under that 1.5000 level 2 days ago but then closed back above it yesterday and is now struggling to press it from above. That is a big Pycho Support number and I would prefer to see it close again under it on the daily to confirm the down side.

  2. I am looking at the series of recent HHs and the even longer series of HLs, stretching back to Feb through July, Sept and most recent - that looks like a strong upward support trendline to me and I would have preferred to see that broken first as well?

But these are just comments, I don’t ever trade this pair, so take that pinch of salt…

I thought I might add that 4H chart here. This is not a “trading” chart. I just use it to help identify current overall directions. If that 1.5000 level breaks then it does seem we will head straight towards at least 1.4950. But I still have that “if”…oh, and sorry for contaminating your thread with some MA’s (help, choke, I’m being strangled…poor old Simple_Simple, he was ok really, just a bit, well, simple… :smiley: )

Simon,

Your feedback is much appreciated! Don’t ever worry about posting here. And I think you’ve made some great points. By the way, I do use MA’s as dynamic s/r - so you’re not polluting anything :smile:

Did you happen to see my earlier post about trendlines and how I’m never quite sure if I’m doing them correctly? Cause see, here’s how I could interpret it (not saying your way is wrong) - I just really don’t know! But here’s my example:

Another possible interpretation, I always notice that when breaking through s/r levels or trendlines - we tend to see big strong candles busting through ( or price stops right at the level and picks up again as if on the other side )…do you know what I mean?

https://stockcharts.com/articles/decisionpoint/2015/04/whats-the-difference-between-an-ascending-wedge-and-an-ascending-triangle.html

I thought this was pretty interesting…

If we disregard the previous trendlines entirely and look at this like a bearish ascending wedge, that is a good sign - however not in the clear until a break out of the wedge occurs.

ooh, and a double top pattern…i love forex <3 so much to piece together, like a constantly moving puzzle, lol…

huh! :smiley: what then

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Shhhh! It means I’m on the Christmas card list! :smiley: