Thank you for the encouragement.
Well, I advised that I would update after NY close today, so here it is:
USDJPY broke through a rising trendline I had marked on my hourly chart. I still view this pair as bearish, but it has been frustrating me with the consolidation and lack of progress. I decided that what I will do is bring my stoploss down to just below my sell point so that if I do get stopped out - it is no loss. My thoughts are that this pair will keep dropping, so if I am right - my stop is not at risk of being hit. If I am wrong, oh well, I was considering closing it out anyway due to a lack of progress.
USDJPY:
Since I now have no risk on this trade and I had already removed risk on my USDCAD trade earlier, I decided to add to my position on that one since it is at a point of retracement with (hopefully) more bearish action to follow if the trend continues. Here it is now:
UPDATE: Iām not opening anymore trades on my account atm because I donāt like to have too much going on at once - it makes me sloppy. But in an effort to keep my thread interesting and of value - I thought I would point out some other possibilities that I see.
Short EA:
EURAUD is at a weekly resistance level and showing a weekly rejection candle at this time, this might be a good short to get in for the beginning of next week. Just keep in mind that if this candle closes bullish or indeterminate - youāll need to look down to the daily chart to see how the day closed. Do that regardless. Top down analysis always.
Another one that I think is primed for early next week is the NZDUSD. I mentioned this trade opportunity at the very start of the thread, but it is just now testing that weekly level. Yesterdays candle was very bullish, so I would wait to get further confirmation on whether this level is going to hold. In my opinion, it will likely print some kind of rejection and drop. However, if we see price break above the s/r level, weāll be watching for it to act as support.
Another possible for next week is the EURUSD. This pair has been uptrending for almost a year. As we know, the trend is your friend and the momentum is likely to continue. However, we are at a key weekly level, and on the daily we see a possible head and shoulders pattern forming - so we may see a reversal. Never make a trade until you get more confirmation from the candles, but if I had to wager a guess at this point, I think that the trend continues and we see bullish action next week.
EURUSD WEEKLY
EURUSD DAILY
These are some pairs that I think are at key weekly levels. All of them need further confirmation before entering the buy / sell. Donāt just hit buy or sell based on what Iāve said here, these are just some observations for those trying to learn what to look for.
1 Like
I know what you mean, and it does sometimes get to me. Iām not perfect, my discipline is not made of steel - but I have grown much more patient over the years. What really bugs me is if I get out of the trade, due to my impatience - and then it does what I thought it was going to do. Money lost because I couldnāt just leave it alone! I mostly trade higher time frames so Iām used to having to wait for trades to come to fruition. What matters to me is making moneyā¦
Son of a beech! So, I woke up to this:
That second position that I had just opened up on USDCAD was taken out over night while I slept by this big ole pinbar rejection candle. Thatās the bad news. The good news is it was a small loss, and it looks like price is going to drop big time. Hopefully I will get another opportunity to add to my position here before I leave for work in a couple of hours. I need price to retrace up a bit on that candle, so I can open another position.
Hello C, do you know the why, of the stop being hit
The Ever Informative VIPER
In my opinion, itās simply because I made my stop too tight. Should have placed it over the previous swing high around 1.25310 (right about where my 1st tradeās stop is now) and I would have been fine. I was looking at the hourly chart when I placed that second entry and I guess not thinking it through.
1 Like
WTI early morning, wider stop may have helped, but that is the deal with Comdolls, very susceptible to early (est) morning moves because WTI moved by Asian and then Euro market traders.
The Ever Sleeping With One Eye Open VIPER
Okay, last update before end of week as I am about to leave for work. I have re-entered USDCAD with a second position (remember my risk is removed on the 1st position since I had previously lowered the stop on my 1st trade and it is in solid positive territory).
Basically doing the same thing on my other trade USDJPY as it is finally progressing down. Removed risk on first trade and opened second position. I plan to leave these open over the weekend.
So, for the week, I have add to the position of both my trades and removed risk on initial trades - as was my goal. With one small loss due to carelessness on my part regarding stoploss placement on UC. Overall, happy with this weekās progress. See you all on Monday.
Thanks for the tip, I agree, I know the Asian session often moves against me - I was just careless honestly. Mistakes happen.
1 Like
1 Like
hee heeā¦not sure what solidworks means - but otherwise applicable. mfw iām at work and watching my trade betray me. okay, tantrum over.
I was just thinking about your CAD positions just now,
Well at least the 1st one still has a locked in profit although that 2nd one has eaten quite a hole?
But I think your stop was at a reasonable position so I donāt think you should be distressed about it. Today has been a strange day. I was on EU all day, lost some, gained some, lost it again and then gained it back and some icing with itā¦ some days are like that (as you know).
Just wanted to let you know we are with you in spirit on that oneā¦ and next week is a new week with new opportunites all over again, have a great weekend in the meantime!!! 
Thank you Simon. I was being dramatic for comedic effect. I donāt think there was anything wrong with my trade - it just didnāt work out. But at least it wasnāt something I screwed up this time. If price comes back up and takes out my other stoploss though - Iām going to lose it! LOL
Comment for the day:
According to Investopedia: Price action is the movement of a securityās price. Price action is encompassed in technical and chart pattern analysis, which attempt to find order in the sometimes seemingly random movement of price. Swings (high and low), tests of resistance and consolidation are some examples of price action.
According to ME: the movement of a candle represents the movement of the price. Therefore the analysis of the different types of candles are part of price action analysis, and I donāt give two flying flutes whether or not someone wants to call that Japanese candle stick analysis, or whatever, it is still part of price action.
[Interest in day - Friday 13 th - Iām betting Up on EUrUSD for the week - where are you ? ]
Hey Falstaff,
Iām no expertā¦so bear that in mind. But since you asked, hereās what I think:
Based on the monthly and weekly momentum, I think that it is likely to be bullish. However we are at an s/r level, so itās hard to say. Price could go either way. I donāt see a good signal on the daily chart indicating which way price wants to go next. Past two days were bearish, and we could be seeing a head and shoulders play out on the daily chart - in which case, more bearish activity would be likely. If I were not yet in this trade (Iām not) I would sit on the sidelines, if I were in this trade (long) then Iād be hoping for more bullish activity after the past couple of days of retracement. But if it does turn out to be bearish, Iād be watching for it to break below that 1.17000 level and get short.
You are correct cndlstckchic & also keep in mind that the USD Index has no bearing on NZD as it is not included in the Index.
1 Like
If youāre a candle stick pattern trader you may want to take at a look at your USDCAD Monthly chart & re-consider shorting U/Cā¦ there is one hell of a Bullish Pin sitting there from last Month. Just a thought.