Today’s bar is looking quite promising 
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Opened a countertrend trade on NU…reasoning is that it is due for a retracement. Price is extended far from the MA’s that I am using which means there should be a strong move back. Price is also at a level that found support previously.
Ouch, that one hurt. Well, this GBPUSD trade stopped out. If the daily candle closes (bearish) and south of the trendline tomorrow at NY close, then I would be looking for a short opportunity.
My NU trade was closed out (voluntarily by me) because I realized shortly after opening it that it was making my margin uncomfortably close. #SmallAccountProblems So, anyway, it was basically zero change (slightly positive).
As I said before, a small account is easy to impact in a big way - positive or negative. This losing GU trade knocked me down 12%. I know that is a lot in most people’s eyes, but I don’t trade based on set risk values. I trade based on the dollar amount I am comfortably willing to lose. And I was intentionally increasing my risk so that I could increase my potential profit as well. So, that being said, I’m not planning on opening any more trades this week as I work 12 hour shifts for the next 3 days and it’s end of week anyway (early Friday morning). Fresh start next week.
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Hey everyone, been super busy this past week…but thought I’d check in and mention the trades I’m watching at the moment.
First up, NU. So, on Friday it dropped a pin bar (possible rejection)…but I don’t feel confident that it’s going to continue in a bearish direction right now. If we look at the weekly, we see that it is at a level where it has found support multiple times before. This trade may not be ready for a while, I’m looking for it to come back up and test the level I have indicated here. I don’t mind sitting back and waiting for the right opportunity.
Next one, is UJ. It’s at a level right now and I think it will continue in a bullish direction, then hopefully drop down and test the level as support. That is where I would be looking to get in to a buy trade. But, it could also stall out and reverse at this level as it has before - so be on the look out for bearish activity.
Another trade I’m watching is GC. I see a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern and price has just come down and tested the neckline as support. So, I’m watching for bullish signals off of this level.
Lastly, I’m watching UC. It’s looking bullish and if it shows rejection of this level - I’d be looking at a buy trade.
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Hey, with the UJ nov5 I’d say it is more of a major resistance, it’ll likely be heading downwards and a high probability trade IMO. If you see on the left hand side, there is two resistance.
The reason it’ll be a high probability trade is because of those two resistances, if you went long, most likely it’ll give you a few pips less than 50, but if your judgement is correct about a short, you’ll be looking at minimum 100 pips.
I personally don’t follow the currency, however, going long is not a high probability trade, in my opinion.
Anyways, you’ll be the judge since at nov9, it’s consolidating.
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Thanks for your feedback. I agree that there’s a strong possibility that UJ may stall out at that level and reverse as it did previously. However, in line with “the trend is your friend”, I like to wait for a definitive signal of what direction it’s going to take - which it still hasn’t done…so, continue to wait! In fact all the above pairs that I am watching continue to consolidate / not really showing their next move.
I got more curious about UJ, so I ended up taking a look further 
I agree with this quote but bulls do get exhausted, IMO if there is an economic data that changes the whole spectrum of each other’s economy, then the trend is your friend, but as a high probability trade where you lose minimum but gain more, I’d still go for my original decision.
Redline would be my stop-loss, and the green line is my take profit, Yellow box shows you that there was an uptrend market and the orange box is an indecisive market where it is questioning where the price should go. The trend is bullish one week and the trend is bearish one week, if you look at it in a years term, he’ll be a bi-polar maniac. In general, the market does not have so phases in one year, if you can read the market well, you’ll know what it is saying.
If you listened to trump’s news on his Asia tour, he wants to change the trade deficit that the US has with most of its Asia counterparts; I do not see the trend heading upwards in the long term.
If you decided to go for a long position, would you know where you put your T/P? It is very questionable, and the last time it hit 119 was roughly on 28 Nov 2016, a year ago but the recent supports have been hit 3 times in less than a year.
If I did this analysis, I would go back to this period and see what caused the bulls to make this move exponentially. Otherwise I do say the market will keep consolidating at these prices, making it a high probability trade.
This is for educational purposes only.
This is my opinion.
Sorry that I didn’t reply sooner, I have been crazy busy with getting back in to grad school and doing a little house remodeling. Anyway, on UJ you had asked where I would put my TP if I was going long. That would depend on where I put my stoploss because I am trying for 3 to 4 times my risk. So, the question for me would be when would I get in the trade. First lets go back to why I am leaning toward it being bullish. It IS trending bullish, so that’s the first thing. But also, it had rejected that level around Oct.13-16, which is a significant level. At the time of the original analysis, I was watching to see what it would do next - not looking to get in the trade. Fast forward to now, it has come back down and is retesting that same level. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a bullish move at the beginning of the week to come. As far as the whole Trump/trade thing, I personally don’t follow the fundamentals/news at all. I got burned many years ago by trying to incorporate that data into my trading and ‘trading how i thought it should be moving’ based on economic conditions, etc. instead of just reading the charts. So, now I just try to do what the charts are telling me.
For anyone else who is following, I’m going to try to get in some trades this next week - pending the market’s cooperation! I’m going to do an updated analysis soon.
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