Commodity Bloc Currencies Post Fresh 2009 Highs (Daily Classical)

• Euro smashes through 200-Day SMA; exposes key 1.3740 highs
• Dollar/Yen very choppy; structure looks toppish
• Cable looking to extend gains back to 1.5375 2009 highs
• Dollar/Swiss takes out March trend lows by 1.1165
• Dollar/Cad drops to fresh 2009 lows by 1.1500; long triggered @1.1540
• Australian Dollar posts another 2009 high; short triggered @0.7645
• New Zealand Dollar also surges to fresh 2009 highs above 0.6035


EUR/USD

                        [B]EUR/USD – [/B]Has now retraced just over 78.6% of the major 1.3740-1.2885 move with the market likely to test next key topside resistance by 1.3585 over the coming hours. A break above 1.3585 should then accelerate gains and open a full retracement back to 1.3740. Key short-term support comes in at 1.3340 with dips expected to be well supported ahead of this level. Only back under 1.3340 will delay.[B] Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]                                                                                                                  [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.3740

                                                                       [B]R3[/B]

                                                                       4/24 high

                                                                                                                 1.3700

                                                                       R2

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 1.3650

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       Mid-Figure

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.3475

                                                                       S1

                                                                       5/7 high

                                                                                                                 1.3400

                                                                       S2

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 1.3340

                                                                       [B]S3[/B]

                                                                       5/8 low

                                                                                                     [B]

USD/JPY[/B]

                        [B]USD/JPY – [/B]Daily studies are mixed and the market continues to chop around with no clear directional bias. Key levels to watch above and below now come in by 99.75 and 97.95 respectively, but we do not recommend taking any positions until a clearer opportunity presents. Our strategy will be to wait for studies to either show overbought or oversold before looking to enter the market.  A closer look at the daily chart does seem to favor a bearish bias. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
         [/B]                                                                                                                  [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 101.45

                                                                       [B]R3[/B]

                                                                       4/6 2009 High

                                                                                                                 100.00

                                                                       R2

                                                                       Psychological

                                                                                                                 99.75

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       5/7 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 98.25

                                                                       S1

                                                                       5/7 low

                                                                                                                 97.95

                                                                       S2

                                                                       5/6 low

                                                                                                                 97.15

                                                                       [B]S3[/B]

                                                                       4/30 low

GBP/USD

                        [B]GBP/USD – [/B]The market has shown zero follow through from Thursday’s bearish outside day and although still confined to inside day price action, shows the potential for a break above the recent 1.5200 highs. Back above 1.5200 will expose a direct test of the 1.5375 2009 highs, while inability to do so, could warn of a short-term top by 1.5200. Key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.5200 and 1.4945. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]                                                                                                                  [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.5375

                                                                       [B]R3[/B]

                                                                       1/8 2009 High

                                                                                                                 1.5300

                                                                       R2

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 1.5200

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       5/7 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.4980

                                                                       S1

                                                                       5/5 low

                                                                                                                 1.4755

                                                                       S2

                                                                       5/1 low

                                                                                                                 1.4705

                                                                       [B]S3[/B]

                                                                       4/30 low

USD/CHF

                        [B]USD/CHF – [/B]We are starting to get a little concerned with the market breaking down through critical trend support at 1.1165 on Friday to potentially open a move back to psychological barriers at 1.1000. Below 1.1000 opens a deeper drop to challenge 1.0865 which guards against the 2009 lows at 1.0610 from early January. Back above 1.1340 is required to take the pressure off of the downside.[B] Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]                                                                                                                  [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1425

                                                                       [B]R3[/B]

                                                                       5/7 high

                                                                                                                 1.1340

                                                                       R2

                                                                       5/8 high

                                                                                                                 1.1245

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       5/5 low

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1000

                                                                       S1

                                                                       Psychological

                                                                                                                 1.0865

                                                                       S2

                                                                       1/8 low

                                                                                                                 1.0800

                                                                       [B]S3[/B]

                                                                       Figure

USD/CAD

                        [B]USD/CAD – [/B]We have been attempting to buy the pair over the past several weeks with little success and little pain and have once again entered a long position on Friday by 1.1540 after stopping out at cost by 1.1660 earlier in the day. Daily studies are highly overextended and the market is due for a material corrective bounce over the coming days. We still see the pair trading in a broader range dating back to the Fall of 2008 and view any opportunities to buy at current levels below 1.2000 as compelling. The market has set fresh 2009 lows on Friday. [B]Position: LONG @1.1540 FOR A 1.2040 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.1290.[/B]                                                                                                                  [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1765

                                                                       [B]R3[/B]

                                                                       5/7 high

                                                                                                                 1.1735

                                                                       R2

                                                                       5/8 high

                                                                                                                 1.1630

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       5/7 low

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 1.1500

                                                                       S1

                                                                       Psychological

                                                                                                                 1.1465

                                                                       S2

                                                                       11/5 low

                                                                                                                 1.1305

                                                                       [B]S3[/B]

                                                                       10/14 low

AUD/USD

                        [B]AUD/USD – [/B]Short trade triggered on Friday with the pair finally crossing over into overbought and trading above 70 on the RSI. We see limited upside potential from here and expect the market is near the point at which it will start to roll back over. Back below 0.7500 is required to confirm and accelerate declines. Fresh 2009 highs have been set on Friday.[B] Position: SHORT @0.7645 FOR A 0.7245 OBJECTIVE, STOP @0.7845.[/B]                                                                                                                  [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.7820

                                                                       [B]R3[/B]

                                                                       10/3 high

                                                                                                                 0.7740

                                                                       [B]R2[/B]

                                                                       10/6 high

                                                                                                                 0.7700

                                                                       R1

                                                                       Figure

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.7620

                                                                       S1

                                                                       5/7 high

                                                                                                                 0.7510

                                                                       S2

                                                                       5/8 low

                                                                                                                 0.7460

                                                                       [B]S3[/B]

                                                                       5/7 low

NZD/USD

                        [B]NZD/USD – [/B]Has broken to fresh 2009 highs on Friday after clearing the previous 0.6035 highs from January. Daily studies still show room to run and we look for some more upside here potentially back towards 0.6085-0.6130 before considering a potential short-term reversal. Back below 0.5900 is now required to negate bullish price action and take pressure off of the topside. [B]Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.[/B]                                                                                                                  [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Resistance[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.6265

                                                                       [B]R3[/B]

                                                                       10/20 high

                                                                                                                 0.6130

                                                                       R2

                                                                       11/4 high

                                                                                                                 0.6085

                                                                        R1 

                                                                       12/18 high

                                                                                                                 [B]Level[/B]

                                                                       [B]Support[/B]

                                                                       [B]Details[/B]

                                                                                                                 0.5910

                                                                       S1

                                                                       5/8 low

                                                                                                                 0.5825

                                                                       S2

                                                                       5/7 low

                                                                                                                 0.5755

                                                                       [B]S3[/B]

                                                                       5/6 low

                                                                                                      [B]

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail[/B] [email protected] and you will be added to the “distribution” list.

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