Competitive Trader Thread!

Time for a break! :grinning:
The next big news is from the EUR at 9pm, so I’ll be resting from trading for 6 hours and hopefully, the news goes great.

I’ll make two trade based on the strengthening of the US dollar (DXY), With the weaken crude oil prices + USD strengthening, i’ll be long USD/CAD.

Also, I went long on USD/CHF on a technical basis and trying to learn more about the CHF currency.

I ended up banking my profits because volatility decreased and it seemed like a good time to exit.

Profit

USD/CHF = $1.38
USD/CAD = $1.14

I did poorly last night on my EUR/USD trade and lost $2.94, so I decided that my performance wasn’t great and got out of trading for the day.

I avoided the big news from CAD and AUD. Fortunately, I did, since I invested too much of my time reading the market, trying to get into small wins when instead I should be patient, believe in the market cycle and use some of my technical analysis while combining some of my fundamentals, economic events and news, of course :grin:

From what I am experiencing and looking at price action and chart analysis, the market cycle is heavily based on market sentiment, so in a form, i am combining all three technical, sentiment and fundamentals altogether.

I got up in the morning early yesterday with an intention of just trading without considering how sleepiness is more prone to making bad decisions. Hence, today I decided to sleep in and get my mind working at a better level than yesterday in hopes my trade will be better.

I also believe I was trading emotionally, so, therefore, decided to make some technical analysis decisions today

This is my end capital from yesterday.

I decided that I will take three trades based mostly on technical analysis this time, as I cannot predict how the US DXY will fair today, so I went for high probability trades instead.

Firstly, the GBP Stochastic was oversold, however, the US DXY is showing a recovery also no new news to see the US DXY from rising or lowering, a possible consolidating period with ups and downs for roughly 12 hours, leave the trade on for 8 to 12 hours.

Secondly, the AUDUSD, with the bitcoin showing signs of decreasing, investors have went to gold as a safer investment alternative increasing gold prices. Also, with the past news gone and the market trend is back into effect, the current situation of gold will show good signs of recovery for the AUD/USD.

Lastly, USD/CHF, solely based on technical analysis and market cycle, I want to learn more about what moves the CHF actually. I base my decision mostly of the US DXY cycle and how AUD/USD will appreciate alongside with gold.

I’ll be consistently looking at the trades for the day, in hopes of keeping the trades on for roughly 8-12 hours depending on the market cycle, I assume.

Bad news, I closed my trade early :sob:, but I did profit from the trades.

If I kept them all on for two hours longer, I would have been a big winner for the day. Anyways, what’s done is done, just focus on the future and think about what you did wrong.

When I am incline to T/P, I should tell myself to wait another 2 hours or so.

One thing I did right was that I closed my AUD/USD trade quickly after the CNY news came out, took the opportunity for a retracement for the news, re-entered the trade and took some profits from there. But closely my trades early was my biggest mistake.

My results are:

AUD/USD = $1.30
GBP/USD = 0.53
USD/CNF = $0.13

I entered two trades

EURUSD = +$0.8
USD/CHF = $0.89

Three trades I have taken for the after match of the volatility of the previous trade

AUD/USD

Sorry, I print screen the wrong image.

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

You pasted the GBPUSD chart twice, so I can’t comment on the AUS position. The GBPUSD trade is a counter-trend position that has come within a pip of stopping you; it’ll be a long climb back to your profit target, if that happens.

Ironically, the trade I liked the best was your EURUSD position, which already has stopped you out. This was a trend following position on a pull-back, and I will not be surprised if it does not go on to hit your profit target. However, I think a better stop would have been above the previous swing high. If a bearish trend is a succession of lower lows and lower highs, then when the price breaks above the previous high, you know the trend is probably over. Which is why it makes for a sensible place to put your stop loss.

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Thank you, sorry I print screen the wrong image and don’t have the AUD/USD image.

All my trades hit their stop loss

AUD/USD = -$0.98
GBP/USD = -$1.56
EUR/USD = -$1.96

And then I went into a frenzy to just recover my losses, losing a total of $5.49.

Anyways, because of the currency correlation, I double or triple my risk exposure, resulting in some bad outcomes. I need to start using cross-currency and only open 1 or 2 trades if its the US. Might start considering EUR or YEN crosses starting next week.

Need to consider realistic S/L & T/P: numbers, these are numbers based on my experience looking at chart and price action

S/L: 12.5 - 17
T/P 18 - 22.5

The biggest question mark for me is how long to keep my trade running ???

News events: 1 to 2 hours is a good time period
Trend continuation: 4+ hours

Volatility dies down whenever it wants, therefore, trends do not stay forever. Bears and bulls change courses and the market is unpredictable.

I also need to consider how much I am trading in total of risk of capital, If I kept that in mind, my losses wouldn’t be big. Aiming for 1.25% of total capital risk.

A lot to learn, however, I’ll keep improving every week and eventually get myself out of the negative digits, hopefully. :grin:

Before I entered this trade, I asked whether the market will offer me the right risk/reward and S/L+T/P ratio given the news event. I patiently waited aiming for roughly S/L 13 T/P 18 and I took the trade. However, maybe I should have aimed for a more realistic T/P spot that will match a likely spot the market will hit.

While I was typing, I got stopped out and lost $1.06

Price action goes up and down, entering at the right spot with the right R:R that the market offers is very hard to do, still learning tho.

Key points from yesterday trading:

  1. If the market is not giving me the right R:R for my interpretation of the market, I do not need to trade and just enter a market order.

  2. S/L of 12.5/15 is quite low and my trade idea might need 15-20.

  3. I DONT HAVE TO ALWAYS ENTER THE MARKET.

I made a market order on NZD/USD. The correlation of the AUD and NZD do not match because of the recent bad economic news that came out of NZ, market sentiment and market cycle will have a high probability of a correction to match the AUD and NZD back together.

My other trade is USDCAD.

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Mind if I talk a little bit about risk management?

In his book, The New Trading for a Living, Dr Elder uses the analogy of swimming to discuss risk management, saying that there are two kinds of danger the swimmer faces: sharks, and piranhas.

The ‘shark’ is that one big trade that goes wrong, taking a massive bite out of your trading capital in a single shot. For this reason, he recommends never risking more than 2% of your account on a single position. This is fairly easy to understand, and to apply, and is all over the internet. You are clearly aware of this rule, and have been managing your position sizes accordingly, so I won’t say any more about it.

The ‘piranhas’, on the other hand, are the string of individually acceptable losses that nibble away a substantial part of your account, almost without being noticed. For this reason, Dr Elder suggests that if you ever suffer a 6% draw-down that you stop trading for the rest of the calendar month - you are clearly out of sync with the markets and need some time to put yourself right, or let the markets return to normal, as the case may be.

I rarely see anyone reference this rule, but I found the implications staggering. Whereas the first rule requires you to manage risk in reference to your account size, the second rule requires you to manage risk in reference to your account size and your hit rate.

Let me give you an example by comparing two profitable systems. Don’t worry about the R:R ratio, just accept that both are profitable in the long run.

The first system has a 90% hit rate. If a 2% position size is used - the max allowed by rule 1 - then a 6% draw-down - the max allowed by rule 2 - will involve three consecutive losses. The chances of that three loss streak starting with any given trade is 10%x10%x10% = 0.1%. The odds of this happening, and thus being locked out of the market for a couple of weeks, is so low that a 2% position size can be used.

The second system has a hit rate of 25% - it’s all about picking the big winners. If a 2% position size is used the chance that any given trade is going to be the start of a three loss streak that locks you out of the market is 75%x75%x75% = 42%! Using a position size that is perfectly permissible under rule 1 has nearly a 50% chance of locking you out of the market after only three trades under rule 2! Every month!

But suppose that system instead used a 1% position size. Now, a lock-out only occurs after a string of six consecutive losses. The chances of this six loss streak starting with any given trade is only 18%, a far more reasonable number. Still a little high for my tastes, though. What about a 0.5% position size? Well, that requires a 12 loss losing streak, and the chances of that beginning on any given trade are only 3%. Much better!

So, as you can see, the 2% rule is only half the story, with the 6% rule being the other half. I mention this because your last account update is showing a draw-down of 4.8%, and you are talking about increasing your position size when, respectfully, your hit rate rather suggests that you should be reducing it.

Edit:

Obviously, there are ways to hit a max draw-down other than a string of consecutive losses. I’ve tried to keep things simple, though, to illustrate the basic point.

2 Likes

Totally agree, I need to have another view on my risk management strategy. I have not looked at what is the cost of each S/L amount, just whether it matches my R:R which I think is wrong.

What’s causing the biggest issue in my trading is firstly currency correlation, I have decided from today to do 1 US trade, and the other two being Yen and EURO crosses to reduce the likelihood of unusual correlation of my trades. Secondly, Jumping into the market too quickly when it doesn’t match the R:R plus the actually hit rate of my T/P which I am working on ATM.

Thanks for the informative explanation of seeing another side of risk management. :grin:

I think analytical wise for trading I am pretty good, however, putting it into practically for profit making is a different story :sob:. I believe I am inexperienced as a trader, however, I did not lose as much as last week which is a positive note, so hopefully I turn a profit next week!

The errors I made from this week, considering and aligning my Post 94 to work on.

Key points to improve my forex trading

  1. Question my approach, whether my T/P is in a realistic zone and what is the probability of it hitting. Aiming too high or low is detrimental to my success.

  2. Trade only one or two US currencies, decide on economic events and news, concerning currency correlation. My other trades have to be EURO or YEN crosses.

  3. Consider dividing my capital risk proportion of 1.25% into my open trades. Since I am not a swing trader, as I presume from the past two weeks of experience, my S/L and T/P needs to be aligned with a day trader’s approach.

ATM I have an S/L of 14-17 to T/P 18-24 roughly. IF my Bottom end of my T/P is larger than my S/L top end, I can make some profitable trading.

The biggest problem I had was the randomness of my S/L & T/P and will need to structure it. Also, getting too involved in the market, getting out of the trades too early, well, too much to remember :sob:.

However, I am getting better every week, and therefore, will keep improving weekly and hopefully turn a profit next week, but my main priority is just to keep learning, that’s it.

Hi Ben, it may pay to find a Currency Strength Indicator/Meter which gives some insight into which of the pair has the overall strength and the pairs possible future direction.

Below is 4 TF’s of the NZDUSD for the last week and you can see that long term the NZD had the strength and therefore the moves later in the week after the USD strengthened were downward or Shorting situations.

Weekly TF shows the USD as taken over the strength by end of week and this is confirmed by the Daily TF…The 4H and 1H TF’s are fluctuating wildly, possibly due to turbulence from the recent cross higher up the TF.

Edit: As you can see on the W1 Chart the NZDUSD plunged 80+pips on the cross over (now marked on the CSM) at 6.00am 18-01 (GMT+11)

So…next week we can reasonably assume that the pair will move downward…lets see.

Or in Bar Chart form you can see how the NZD weakened and the USD became dominant towards EOW.

Have a read of this excellent thread from Dennis, it will give you a better idea of using the CSM.

Hope this is of help…

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I wanted to enter a trade early based on the US government shutting down but the spread increased. The market sentiment and fundamentals will be bearish on the US

My capital for the starting week is:

I considered my past mistakes and won’t be opening more than 2 trades on the US ever.
I will find EURO or YEN crosses.

My current trade is on CAD/USD since the spread is lower than CHF or EUR at 15 pips previously, I got it for roughly 4 pips. Oil has had positive news of a rebound of $100, so the trade could lead to a good outcome.

My S/L seems like its pretty close but the fundamentals, news on the US, the downtrend of the USD against the CAD and oil prices with news of a possible recovery to $100 makes it a high probability trade.

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I got stopped out, however, I kept the same idea of my original plan and short the EUR + CAD against the USD and lowered my units to match my S/L. Will print screen it when I get home.

A reminder to myself, I will not put more than 2 trades on for the US! :grin:

Just closed my USD/CAD trade to lower my risk against the US

This is wise
i made a rule for myself as well a while back,
NEVER More than 4 Trades at a time
usually i only have 1 or 2 though, 99% of the time it’s 2

but i also have another rule

that being… When i set lot sizes i do this
let’s say my risk is $10 for the trade (Generically speaking)
so, if i know i’ll probably go to 4 trades, then i’ll put the first trade as a lot size of 0.25lots
that way if i get to 4 trades, the total weight (as i call it) the total of the LOTS does not exceed 1.0 lots

if i know it’ll be 2 trades adn no more i will start on 0.5 lots
and so on…
doing it the other way goes above your risk requirements.
it’s better to make it slow than make it quick with high risk

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Have you considered using the ATR to calculate your stop losses? On the H1 chart, an ATR setting of 12 will tell you what the average range of a bar is over the last half day. This gives you a completely objective view of the recent volatility of the currency pair,

You could then use a multiple of the ATR to calculate your stops. So, for example, by using 2xATR(12) you would be saying that you want to be able to weather two average size bars moving against you before being stopped out. If you find that doesn’t work you could try 2.5x, or 3x, and so on, until you find the right fit for your trading style.

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I’ll definitely consider thinking about it when I am at my laptop to work on my trading, thank you.

Even though I do not open too many trades anymore, I have another new issue concerning trading which is trading too much of my “trading ideas,” leading to “overtrading.”

This is shifting my original trade ideas which are causing me less profitable outcomes. I plan on only trading four trade ideas a day, two for the US and two for the cross-currencies. Also, I need to avoid making quick “trade idea decisions” while I am out.

My trades for the day were:

700 units USD/CAD long = -$1.53

I decided to lower my unit amount to 500 since it seemed like I was making bad decisions based on S/L and T/P. Considering a S/L of 16-20 and T/P of 22-27

500 units EUR/USD short = $1.87
500 units USDCHF short = $1.14
500 units GBP/USD short = -$1.04
500 units USD/CHF short = -$0.85

Current capital

USDCAD - it was based on the fundamentals, however, oil movement seems more relevant for the CAD than the recent economic event that occurred.