Competitive Trader Thread!

[Ben1987]

Sorry for the delay, needed some time to work on myself.

Ok, after some self-actualisation and soul-searching , I wrote a trade system and a trade plan that I want to post for others to use or help me make improvements, whichever works. This trade system is not finalised yet, but if it helps someone get new ideas for their trade system, that’ll be great. I couldn’t upload the whole document, so I’ll just show step-by-step guide with my visual aid for decision making.

step visual aid.docx (383.7 KB)

Btw the profit target is not updated, but whatever you get the point.

I did end up losing more, however, all was not lost as I gained valuable experience to actually see which trade strategies would make sense or not. I also deposited an extra $320 on top.

As you described earlier about economic events, unfortunately, I came to the same conclusion and you do get mixed results trying to trade them. But the attempt was not futile but was helpful for me to recognize a lot of things about trading. For my swing trading decisions, I completely ignore economic events, however, with my day trading, I do not.

[Ben1987]

Anyways, moving forward, I have 3 swing trades on and 1-day trade on.

My swing trade positions are 500 with roughly a 1 to 2 RRR.

Swing trades on

GBP/JPY (500)- based mostly on trend line analysis

EUR/CHF (500)- based mostly on trend line analysis

EUR/USD (500)- based mostly on trend line analysis

I am a bit sceptical about my EURUSD trade, however, I am leaving it.

Day trade on

AUD/USD (600)- based on the higher timeframe trend line on D1 & W1 + SMA200 heading back to norm

I try to swing trade cross currencies and leave the Major pairs for my day or scalping trading.
Now I am recognising my GBP and EUR is positively correlated.

[margarethcollins6]

interesting post! I’m always looking forward to your post

[Ben1987]

I lost on my AUDUSD day trade which was $1.53, however, I have a new day trade on ATM but wished it was the USDJPY.

USDCHF (600)- based on the higher timeframe trend line + SMA 200 H1

Fundamentals were in my favour and currently, my GBP/JPY is ATM 80 pip winner, I plan on closing this trade at the end of the week or next week.

which were:

1.Bre-exit is almost finalised, so it is possibly good news.
2. Japanese government is facing controversy on tampered documents.

Captial at

need to expand on exotic pairs eventually, but will do currency crosses for now.

[Ben1987]

I closed my USD/CHF, profit $0.08 trade because of big news coming out from the US in 30 mins roughly. but leaving my other trades on.

[Falstaff]

Ben - Good to see you back.

Rest of post removed, it is not my place to say that 1

[Ben1987]

Thanks falstaff, I realised that I was too unconventional on my approach and I needed a more systematic approach and a way to recognise my mistakes, hence the trading system.

Yeah, my trade system is actually roughly 8mb, so couldn’t upload it.

[Falstaff]

Hi Ben, I guess you read it then ?

Ok - perhaps that might help.

All the very best mate

[Ben1987]

I think without everyone’s contribution, I wouldn’t of moved this fast in learning how to trade, thank you all.

[Ben1987]

I ended up losing on my EURUSD, -$5.07, which I did mention I was reluctant to keep on, however, I did want to stick to my plan. If tomorrow the EUR/USD seems like it’ll reverse in the direction in favour of USD, I’ll short again.

As the news/economic events are pessimistic about CAD views against the US, I was inclined to a bullish trade on the US.

USDCAD (600)- based on economic event/news on CAD + SMA 200 H1

I believe it was a temporary pullback and I don’t see much of a chance that the currency will fall below too often.

Also, another position became of interest for me

USDCHF (600)- On the SMA 200, Stochastic is oversold, currently in US market session & slight uptrend on D1 chart

[Ben1987]

I closed my USDCAD trade and won $2.03

USDJPY (600) - It follows my higher timeframe trend line analysis combined with SMA 200 + US market session

[Ben1987]

I closed the following positions -

EURCHF (Swing) = $0.17 - reason because low volatility
USDJPY (Day) = -0.85 - reason because low volatility with uncertainty
USDCHF (Day) = $0.15 - reason because low volatility with uncertainty

Still have my position open for GBP/JPY

New position for a Swing trade vacant.

CHFJPY (500) - Oversold on H1, D1 & W1 stochastic + above SMA 200 H1

Plan on opening a new day trade eventually today when volatility picks up.

[Ben1987]

The day trade I took was the AUDUSD

NZD has been bullish, the AUD is above the SMA 200 D1 chart + Stochastic oversold (D1 chart). (Slight deviation to my trading strategies) + very positive news from China. these considerations made me decide to take the AUDUSD (600) trade.

[Ben1987]

So it says that I have not been on this forum for roughly 212 days but here I am back to reorganize my approach to Forex. I was over analyzing situations, impatient and was over trading. This is my starting capital which I have left for 7 months roughly alone.

I am taking a swing trading approach with the right risk-reward ratio that involves 70% technical and 30% fundamentals and holding trades for two weeks regardless of what happens. As we all know that technical analysis cannot be the sole determinant of your trade and hence for the 30% in fundamentals. I have forsaken the use of economic events besides the large ones and plan on making trades on a two-week forecast approach.

My current approach is:

Firstly, if the risk-reward ratio is not 1 to 2.5-3 and the high lows of price have not met the currency price in a while, then it is not wise to take that trade.
An example is a trade I am currently on now.

The last time GBP/JPY hit 151 was roughly around May and at the best of my knowledge I have not heard any relatively good nor bad news of the UK economy. At best, it will be a no trend trade. Even though my technical indicator of Stoch/RSI shows that has been oversold, the fundamentals and the past high shows, it’ll be a questionable trade. Making it a marginal decision and risky.

Here is a good example that meets technical and fundamental analysis:

The last time USDJPY reach my take profit area was a few days ago, my StochRSI is oversold and my SMA 200 shows that the market is in an uptrend. the deviation from the SMA200 is pretty dramatic, however, it matches my fundamental analysis of the US economy being strong.

I have not formulated or finalized my trading system. However, I have some key ideas which I will start implementing soon after these trades.

I will be implementing my excel spreadsheet of high/lows for the week that helps me analyze weak vs strong currencies as a starter. Review my past decisions and try to write once a week in my journal.

I have had to recoup my thinking and now its time to grow my Forex trading system again and align it with my business plan with a realistic approach.

The trading decisions I am making are based on a two-week basis and will not be taken off regardless of the outcome. Since my risk/reward ratio is high, this allows me to make some poor decisions that in turn gives me an opportunity to grow my Forex aptitude.

[Falstaff]

Hi @Ben1987 - Good to see you back mate

Good to see you’ve been thinking and are trying something new too !

[Ben1987]

Hey Falstaff,

I am glad you are still in the forum ,

From all the knowledge I compiled from you guys, Swing trading is optimal for retail traders, after I took 7 months off, half my capital gone to realise that. Still alive, which is good.

So, I got that around my head, eventually . Slow and steady wins the race.

[Ben1987]

Ok, as I said that my GBPJPY trade was a weak trade, it hit my stop loss which came to no surprise to me, should of closed it but I stuck to it until the end. however, my USDJPY is still going strong and have made 0.60 cents on interest rate differential! . Probably leave it on for another week or two, depending on the technical indicators. I try only trading one idea every two weeks and hold onto one trade at a time.

[Ben1987]

Continuing on from my past analysis of GBPJPY, where my Take profit target was 151 but it has not hit 151 since May 2018.

My next step for this currency is to wait until the currency hits 144.3 which will align with my technical analysis of STOCH/RSI being oversold and match my currency valuation of roughly 147.

This will allow me to have a risk/reward ratio of 1 to 2.5-3, ff the scenario occurs. This matches my fundamental analysis and technical analysis.

[Ben1987]

My next trade will be on the EURNZD and will place a trade on it this coming Monday. It closely matches my setup requirements which are:

1. Past price reached previously recently (Graph details) Yes
2. Stoch/RSI (Oversold/Overbought) (technical indicator) Yes
3. matches my risk reward of 1 - 2.5/3 Yes
4. SMA 200 above or below (Trend continuous signal) (optional dependent on fundamentals) Yes
5. Weak economy versus Strong economy Yes
6. Willing to hold trade for two weeks or more YES

Proceed to enter trade on Monday.

Sound like a robot , but a systematic approach is always good!
The picture will be updated shortly on Monday when i enter the trade.

[Ben1987]

I have made an entry into my EURNZD trade, however, I am sceptical about this trade because of the 1 Hour chart movement that could possibly make it a bad entry at the moment. However, It aligns with my fundamental and technical analysis on the day charts.