[quote=“Ben1987, post:37, topic:128536, full:true”]
Oh yeah, that’s right the news, my bad.
Is it because the spread widens and brokers usually play with it? [/quote]
Well maybe in some cases, but only if the SL is very close, I think the main problem with trading the news is that one item of news does not always change a trend even if it is quite clearly opposing it. If the underlying trend is strong and persistent then the most a single item of news may give is a limited counter-trend move or a chance to get into the main trend at a better price.
And because a currency pair comprises two currencies then there are two underlying pressure systems at play.
But one thing about this kind of news trading analysis is matching one’s trade objectives with the anticipated impact of the news,
Here is an example of what I mean. With that USDCAD trade, you said:
[quote=“Ben1987, post:33, topic:128536”]
Recent weeks, oil prices have surged and the likelihood of crude oil inventories will be worst requiring more purchases from Canada likely from the US, resulting in higher CAD vs USD. [/quote]
Well that may be so, but it is not likely to happen in the next 10 minutes. That kind of impact may take even days to infiltrate into the pricing. And the oil situation between US and Canada has its own identity and issues such as pipelines and inventories and so the overall US inventories data may not be entirely relevant anyway, other than in a general sense - but you placed a trade looking for about 30 pips with a stop of 15 pips based on this scenario?
OK, there may be an instantaneous reaction to the news that could see follow-through, or there could be a reaction in the opposite direction because the news was not as bad as maybe expected, etc. The point is that market reaction to news can flip in either direction by 30-50 pips or more before showing which way it is going to continue - which can make it very difficult to succeed even if one’s analysis is entirely logical because you are focusing on only one issue amongst a whole load of issues, both long and short term and for two currencies.
Personally, I think trying to gain quick profits in the 30-50 pip range with stops around only 15 pips based on news releases is likely to produce erratic results which, over a period of time, can be extremely demoralising and exhausting.
Naturally, I emphasise that this is purely my personal opinion and should be entirely treated as such! And I sincerely hope you prove me wrong and I really wish you well in your project!
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