Hey alphahavoc,
How did your gbp/jpy cross currency pair go ? Did it go well ?
My update for my trading for the day, I ended up losing 10 dollars, roughly 4% of capital.
.
Pretty upset, but it was a good learning experience on how to handle five consecutive losses. With proper risk management, I only lost 4% of my capital. I am still alive.
I added two EUR/USD trades short, but it turned out poorly.
Key points to take from this experience.
- need an approach to low volatility markets
- do not need to enter too early for fundamental economic events
- Need to consider currency correlation, especially since I trade the major pairs.
- Also, consider good cross currency pair opportunities.
There is a lot to learn, my capital is alive, and I can keep growing. 
Over-trading is a real thing, especially for me. I typically trade only four pairs, all of which are GBP crosses. So when the GBP is in the news (like today), I canât trade.
But I pulled up some other charts, and saw some signals on some non-GBP currencies. âLetâs give it a whirlâ, I said.
Didnât work, of course. All my entries, targets, and stops are calibrated around the GBP, and on a non-GBP pair they are rubbish. Fortunately, I knew ahead of time that I was being an idiot, so I had only entered a 0.01 lot position. I lost just over 1 GBP, which I consider a cheap reminder not to deviate from my trading plan simply because I want to be in the markets. 
Itâs also my first loss of the year. May all my losses be that small!
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Oh that sucks it being your first loss and yes let all your losses remain small .
I believe I did over trade today, gotta remind myself that I will only open 3 trades and my next opening of trades will only consist of maximum of 3% of my remaining capital which is $7.24 in total.
4% was abit much for someone that is still learning 
.
Thanks for trying to make me feel better.
I took a new trade based on candlestick pattern and every good economic data from the US with MBA mortgage applications hitting 8.3% vs 0.7% previous and 4.23% 30-year mortgage rate.
My stop loss is at $1.76, which is less than 1 percent.
I believe there will be a reversal due to the news and also the candlestick pattern hit a high and reversed. Combining the two information, it has become a high probability trade, IMO. Also, stochastic shows overbought.
AUD/USD
Looks like you did ok on that one? Well done! Nice, quick trade! 
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I made a quick decision on my USDCAD trade and went short on USDCAD when I was meant to go long on USDCAD and I lost $1.15. The USD vs CAD had better fundamental news and lost another $1.21 trying to get BACK into the trade.
However, I gain on the AUD/USD $4.11 on my other trade.
Thanks, i made a mistake on my CADUSD trade, which was a bummer. 
Ouch! But these things happen, a lapse of concentration - it called being human! Sometimes, though, these kinds of mistakes can even work out positive - which is nice but, well, also a bit embarrassing, you know, earning from mistakenly trading in the âwrongâ direction!
You have 2 MAs on your charts which I guess from their looks are Simple MAâs and not EMAâs? I just wondered what you do with them since the trades that you have taken donât seem to take much notice of them? It caught my eye because I use somewhat similar MAs but I was in the opposite direction to you in those EU trades both yesterday (short) and today (long) and I was surprised by that. What are you reading from your MAs?
I base most of my trades on fundamental news, I just use moving average for general direction. With my EUR/USD trade, I looked at the French Industrial production M/M which was negative. However, I think the overall French industrial production was good, resulting in me taking a bad trade.
https://www.insee.fr/en/statistiques/3304475
Therefore, I read too much into that information. 
Well that is why I asked because it doesnât look like that at all! 
With those EU trades and with that AU trade above the MAs are actually in the opposite direction to your trades. Donât think I am criticizing here at all, I am only curious, thats all. One could argue that your todayâs AU was actually a countertrend trade in terms of those MAs!
Haha didnât notice, Nope you definitely ainât criticising and thanks for pointing it out. I usually use moving average when there is low volatility in the market and I am making a technical based decision rather than fundamental base.
But most of my trades I consider fundamentals, since they create the volatility.
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Another USD/CAD trade based on the upcoming fundamental news in 10 mins, hopefully I do not get it wrong this time.
Recent weeks, oil prices have surged and the likelihood of crude oil inventories will be worst requiring more purchases from Canada likely from the US, resulting in higher CAD vs USD. This time I am basing my decision on CAD in favour vs USD. My stochastic shows overbought, verifying my decision further. Resulting in a high probability trade.
S/L = $2.28
T/P = $5.37
Iâm not sure I would call what you are doing âtrading on fundamentalsâ, but rather âtrading the newsâ, which is generally a bad idea for retail taders.
Oh yeah, thatâs right the news, my bad.
Is it because the spread widens and brokers usually play with it?
Thatâs part of it. But mostly, news time is algo time. You will never be competing more directly with the algos than around a news event. And generally, they win.
[quote=âBen1987, post:37, topic:128536, full:trueâ]
Oh yeah, thatâs right the news, my bad.
Is it because the spread widens and brokers usually play with it? [/quote]
Well maybe in some cases, but only if the SL is very close, I think the main problem with trading the news is that one item of news does not always change a trend even if it is quite clearly opposing it. If the underlying trend is strong and persistent then the most a single item of news may give is a limited counter-trend move or a chance to get into the main trend at a better price.
And because a currency pair comprises two currencies then there are two underlying pressure systems at play.
But one thing about this kind of news trading analysis is matching oneâs trade objectives with the anticipated impact of the news,
Here is an example of what I mean. With that USDCAD trade, you said:
[quote=âBen1987, post:33, topic:128536â]
Recent weeks, oil prices have surged and the likelihood of crude oil inventories will be worst requiring more purchases from Canada likely from the US, resulting in higher CAD vs USD. [/quote]
Well that may be so, but it is not likely to happen in the next 10 minutes. That kind of impact may take even days to infiltrate into the pricing. And the oil situation between US and Canada has its own identity and issues such as pipelines and inventories and so the overall US inventories data may not be entirely relevant anyway, other than in a general sense - but you placed a trade looking for about 30 pips with a stop of 15 pips based on this scenario?
OK, there may be an instantaneous reaction to the news that could see follow-through, or there could be a reaction in the opposite direction because the news was not as bad as maybe expected, etc. The point is that market reaction to news can flip in either direction by 30-50 pips or more before showing which way it is going to continue - which can make it very difficult to succeed even if oneâs analysis is entirely logical because you are focusing on only one issue amongst a whole load of issues, both long and short term and for two currencies.
Personally, I think trying to gain quick profits in the 30-50 pip range with stops around only 15 pips based on news releases is likely to produce erratic results which, over a period of time, can be extremely demoralising and exhausting.
Naturally, I emphasise that this is purely my personal opinion and should be entirely treated as such! And I sincerely hope you prove me wrong and I really wish you well in your project!
But it seems BP doesnât approve of me responding to you!! This pop-up box just appeared:
Consider replying to more people
Youâve already replied 3 times to @Ben1987 in this particular topic.
Have you considered replying to other people in the discussion, too? A great discussion involves many voices and perspectives.
If youâd like to continue your conversation with this particular user at length, send them a personal message.
I can take the hint!!
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You are right, I have to tweak my approach when it comes to trading news and economic events. I will also have trades that are more long term based.
So much to learn