Ok. Check this out.
This is the daily standings during the whole month of Dec.
You can plainly see that the Comms (NZD, AUD, CAD reddish colored ones) are, and have been, the most sold currencies during the month. The NZD came off a super previous month. And around the beginning of the month they got sold off and joined their brethren, at the bottom.
The JPY (purple) really got bought in the last couple weeks of the month. Look. They didn’t spend much time in the teens of a percentage. Just shot up to the 20’s. That was end of month, end of quarter, end of year buying going on. This is all facts. And we can only see this as in hindsight, of course.
The others…I don’t know. The only thing mentionable was the EUR was definitely more of a bid, and in demand, relatively speaking. Mind you, it’s all a comparison thing.
So, we turned the page. New year, new everything. Everybody is coming back to work now, and let’s see where the money wants to go. Will it be different? Will we see change taking place? Cause now we know what’s been happening, heading into a new year.
The most bid currency was the JPY. They kept it up alright, in the first couple days of the year. Right? Especially, when that flash caused heads to spin on the 3rd. Well, now we know that, for some reason, that was the end of that. It went completely downhill from there. Even up through NFP.
But what I find interesting, is the CAD. Boy, it didn’t take them long to find a bid. You can’t tell me they started off the year without some good demand. When you compare them to the others, only then can we see that. In fact, they’ve been dragging the bottom for a few long months now. They’re due.
Then the AUD woke up, cause last month they were dead last. Both the brothers came up and joined the CAD. Basically, it was full on commodity currency buying. And believe me, it’s been a while since I seen that. See, that was the norm just a few years ago. That was all I was seeing back then. Mr. Oil changed that scene, and separated the CAD from them.
But, honestly, in the past, I remember seeing the JPY flirting with the Comms for a period of time (like how it looks now). I don’t know, maybe it’s an Asian thing. Like, they both want to be in demand. I can’t assume that the JPY will automatically drop to the bottom, from here on out. But, surely that happens a lot. Dennis will tell you. They like to be polarized.
And well, the USD (white), it took them some time, but surely after NFP they finally hit bottom. Comparatively speaking.
Well, concerning the Europeans, it’s nice to see the brothers running closely to each other (EUR, CHF). That is typical. Even look at last month. Yep. Does make sense. But, whenever they diverge, then something is going on. I’ve seen that also, in the past. It’s all in how they are relating to one another.
The GBP is in a class of their own. And we all know why, lately anyway (cough, brexit). It’s no surprise they are dragging towards the bottom. Look. Things can change pretty dog-gone quickly with them. Next thing you know, they can be riding at the top. It’s all economically related nowadays with them. But, in the meantime, the (buying) money has it’s sites and attention on something else.
Actually, that’s another perspective. If you look at how much the %'s are, we can deduce that there is more of a pile on in regards to what traders are buying, instead of selling. I look at this. How much is the % on top, and how much % on the bottom? There’s more of a bias at the top (Comms) than there is at the bottom. Now, look at last month. The bias was more for the bottom, AUD. I guess you would call that a sentiment. Was stronger for selling the AUD than anything. It surely wasn’t strong for the EUR. Kind of like, “well, that’s the best we can do, no one better at the present time”. That’s aggregately speaking.
So, I would say there’s more excitement and confidence slanting towards the most extreme end. Man, last month you could have sold the AUD against anyone and made some money. As opposed to buying the EUR against just anyone. Big difference.
Alright. Those are some of my thoughts. And that’s how I think about the market. I know that everybody is different. And you can make money a million other ways. So, just take it for what it is.
It’s just a perspective.
Alright. Mike out.