Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s how it went down today.
Monthly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency that session +3.97%.
• CAD (brown) most sold currency -2.76%.
• GBP most bought currency for the day in total +5.79%.
• USD (white) most sold currency for today -2.89%.

Wow. What happened? Some kind of turn around took place this afternoon.

Looks like the Pound got a serious bid. A lot of attention going there. Also, the USD went through a serious selling.

As I am all about relationships, I definitely noticed that although the USD sold off, so did the JPY (purple). They ended up being -2.75%. And that only makes sense to me. As I have mentioned before, that those two do like to run together. It sure showed today. And you know that I’ve been wondering why the divergence between them lately. Well, looks like the Dollar is coming down, instead of the Yen coming up.

But…man…for as much as the NZD (dark red) took a hit the first two sessions, they made it all up in the last one. They ended up being +1.13%, the next one after the GBP. And then, of course, the AUD next with a +.96%.

I guess we never know when the changes will come. But, I do think this may be a strong hint that we might be going back to risk-on. Which is the prevailing trend. Speaking of that, I’ll depart with that chart.

Alright. Have a good night.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (350.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s happening on this Wednesday…
Quarterly chart.

• CAD (brown) most bought currency so far +1.85%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency so far -1.68%.

I figured it’s easier to know what’s happening more from this chart. It’s a no brainer to see that we have the 4 long standing positive % currencies against the 4 long running negative % currencies.

I didn’t mention yesterday that we have a new top pair spread. The GBP/CHF. If you look back, they had their time at the top for a good while. Mostly through January.

Well, not all that much happening.
I’ll leave you with the month running table.

Alright.
See you when it gets light out.

Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (357.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s more Wednesday.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency that time +.70%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency -1.04%.

Well, not a whole lot of buying or selling happening. I guess it’s getting reserved for later on in the US session. That would be due to the FOMC meeting that we have at 2pm, my time.

And we know that the Dollar (white) will be the most volatile currency. But…that surely has effects on the others.

Check out the CAD (brown). Man, they are still on the bid. They simply are not going away. As you can see, they took a hit yesterday during their session, only to bounce right back in it today. Plus some. But…of course…the day isn’t over. These are just snap shots. I have 3 of those inside of a day. At the end of each session.

So, I wanted to talk a bit about what’s going on in the monthly only table. Let’s look.

That’s zoomed out as much as I can go. Little over a week.
Basically, the USD has been the most bid currency for this month (white). But, you can see that coming into this week it surely has come down.

The JPY (purple) has tried to get above 0%, but can’t do it. It’s dropping. And I think that’s due to a dropping Dollar.

The AUD, NZD, have really struggled in the beginning of the month, but ever since last weeks bomb from the NZD, for the upside, they really are trying to come on out of the bottom. And really, I think that has a lot to do with the US and China trade talk lately.

The CAD (brown) has kept with their prevailing trend throughout this month.

The GBP (blue)…they are so tough to summarize. They have such good days along with some bad days. At least they are keeping with their prevailing trend, which if you look at the quarterly table, they have stayed in the positive running % since the start of the year.

The EUR (yellow) and the CHF (pink), for the most part, have just kept quiet and not really going anywhere. Their prevailing trend has been in the negative %'s.

So, given what happens today with a move of the USD, that should push the particular currencies in their ways. And if that means with the prevailing trend, then we should see more risk-on currencies (Comms) being bought again, and the JPY to sell off more. Along with the CHF.

Look. Anything can happen. I think the best way to think about is whether or not the prevailing trend will continue or not. How many other ways are there to look at it? Know what I mean? But…I do know one thing for sure. They will relate to one another in some kind of way. And that’s the reason why I get up in the morning. To find it out. And to trade accordingly.

Alright.
Enough nonsense. Let’s make this a good day.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (364.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s Wednesday in total.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency that session +.80%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency -1.19%.
• CAD (brown) most bought currency for today +2.58%.
• NZD most sold currency for today -2.68%.

Well, it surely didn’t seem like much of an event today. The USD came up .23% that entire session. And up .49% for the day in total.

I guess the most attention went to buying the CAD.

And for the JPY, there was a lot more selling going on. Seems to me that there is no tiring of them going down, huh? That makes me think that the risk is more on than anything.

Alright. Nothing else earth shattering, that I see.
Have a good night.
See ya in the a. m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (352.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s going on for a Thursday…
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency +1.78%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency -3.88%.
• Some major negative flow -10.76%.

Wow. Something happened overnight. The last thing I saw, then went to bed, was the AUD unemployment data. Which was awesome. And that really boosted them. But then I wake up to a murder scene.

Well, it’s risk-off. Only the AUD and the NZD were the only currencies to be negative ( NZD -2.84%). All else very positive.

All I’m wondering is, whether this is a tell of things to come. And we kind of should know by the end of tomorrow. It doesn’t look good…for the prevailing trend.

Alright.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (359.7 KB)

[Trendswithbenefits]

Wow. Something happened overnight. The last thing I saw, then went to bed, was the AUD unemployment data. Which was awesome. And that really boosted them. But then I wake up to a murder scene.

Australia’s Unemployment Figures aren’t what they seem… it’s a fugazi number…

If you have 4 hours of work a week… your in that data as employed… a very large percentage of employment in Oz is now Casual or Part time… so pay no attention to the results behind the curtain.

There’s now talk of two interest rate cuts during 2019, so expect the AUD to be weak for the rest of the year… I estimate the AUDUSD to go below ~$0.70 support sometime soon…

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
Thanks Trends…

Let’s see some more Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency their morning time +1.80%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency, again, -1.49%.

Well, looks to me like the Pound wants the top spot. They have been out bidding the CAD (brown) this week. You can see the session takings this week. Definitely wanting it. Took 4 sessions of the 11 that we had so far. Also, they took 2 complete days of the 3 total, so far. Needless to say, they are on it. Lots of buying the GBP.

And, in regards to the other positive running %'s, the Comms (reddish)…well…they also are losing a bunch of sessions. And total days.

We always get a better picture as the week rolls out. Sure, it’s hindsight. And I think that is evil (in the sense that we should have known something was coming, but we just do not). I simply cannot predict the future (which, by the way, goes for everyone). But the thing is, this is what’s called a trend. It’s a flow. And it seems to me that we have a better sense the more of it rolls out.

So, in regards to a weeks time span, in which I find the most helpful, I will get a better feel at the end of it. So presently speaking, I will be looking for whether the Comms would want to continue on down or not. In the broadest spectrum. But…I do feel that until someone crosses over the 0% line, it’s not all that much of a change.

All that nonsense goes for me, in regards to my trading tactics and plans.

So, disregard that mumbo gumbo. Just talking to myself.

Alright.
Let’s make it a good day, no matter what happens.
I will.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s see how it ended, for Thursday.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) took that session +1.58%.
• CAD (brown) lost that session -1.85%.
• JPY most bid currency today in total +3.28%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency today -5.89%.

Well, I’ll tell you what I think is interesting. Not only did the JPY take the day, but the USD was the next most bid currency for today, at +2.24%. Boy…their tough. See, on Tuesday of this week, they both were the top 2 sold currencies. And I mentioned that it seems like the USD might be coming down to the Yen. But…now…it seems like the Yen wants to go up to the Dollar. I just do not know. Other than they do like to buy or sell together. I’ll just keep it at that. That’s all I know.

And the Comms sure did take a hit today. I mean, my goodness. Let’s see.

• The NZD (dark red) is presently, for the week running, -7.21%.
• The AUD (red) is presently, for the week running, -5.52%.

What’s going to happen tomorrow, you ask?
Heck if I know.
I will be wondering if this slide will continue…or a serious bounce back (due to the prevailing trend on the quarterly table).

Here’s the monthly table.

All you have to do is look at their percentages. Pretty gruesome.

Alright.
Market time over (for me anyway).
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (355.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Let’s see how Friday is starting out.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid currency +2.16%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency -1.57%.

Now, isn’t that something. We’ve seen this before, I remember because I mentioned it how weird that is. Both comm’s on opposite ends of the market. Well, I just looked, and this happened on Friday Feb 8th, NZD (+1.23%) AUD (-1.64%). Funny how it happened on a same day (Fri). Well, just so you don’t have to go back and look, what the final result back then was the AUD lost the day in total. And for both currencies it was a losing day.

Ok. That’s nice. I know. Well, I can’t tell what the sentiment is. Seems so mixed. It’s tough.

I’ll just leave you with the monthly table.

Alright.
See ya little later on.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (362.8 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s what’s happening on Friday.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid currency that session +2.26%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency -2.51%.
• More positive flow 1.68% (the positives going up and the negatives going down).

So, looks like the NZD joined big brother as the day unfolded.

The JPY (purple) has been more selling today.

The Dollar (white) is not all that moving.

Basically, it is a bounce from what’s been the sentiment all during this week. This is what I had at the end of yesterday.

@MikeWolski

The NZD (dark red) is presently, for the week running, -7.21%.
The AUD (red) is presently, for the week running, -5.52%.

What’s it presently look like now?

• NZD is -6.52%.
• AUD is -2.96%.

So yeah, their bouncing, but still looks like it might be a losing week for them. Speaking of bouncing…Here’s a look at this month (all by itself), only of the daily end totals.

All you have to do is look at the reddish ones. The NZD (dark red) was the one that moved pretty far up, only to come back down. And the AUD (red) did make a try up, but in comparison to the others was basically not making any headway.

Therefore, now that we are starting to head into the end of the month, I kind of think that the broader sentiment just might be changing. That does take some time to make a dent on the higher table.

Well, we’ll have to see what the Americans do with them. Yeah, it is a bit of risk-on today, but up to the present time, not all that much. Hope I gave you some kind of perspective.

Alright.
I’ll see you at the end.
Be careful.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (370.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s look at it.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) took that session +2.56%.
• USD (white) lost that session -2.09%.
• NZD most bid currency today +3.25%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold currency today -2.06%.

Alright. What do we got?
Well, the Comms made a pretty good run into the closing. Let’s see what they did this week in total (as I have been cluing you in on so far).

• NZD ended it being -3.96%.
• AUD ended it being -3.39%.
• CAD ended it being +3.41%.

That’s not all that bad, considering the NZD was running the week more than -6%, as I showed you at the US open.

Well, that’s nice.

Next week is 4 days left in the month. All we can do is watch what happens, right?

And all I know is that it’s the weekend at the present moment. And I plan on making the best of it.

We’ll talk later.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (357.4 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
I’m back. It sure does help when the electricity is back. Had a power outage all night. Well, it did come back on for us at 2:40am this morning…but my wifi wasn’t working. That finally got working again sometime around 5 something. In any case, all I can do is pick up where we left off. Good thing my system sticks with the running totals. Skipping a session is no big deal.
That’s nice. Here we go.
This is the quarterly table, and today’s latest will of course be from the open of the week.

• NZD (dark red) the most bid currency since the open +3.60%.
• JPY (purple) the most sold currency since the open -2.55%.

Well, let’s look at the picture.

• AUD (red) +3.27%.
• CAD (brown) -2.01%.
  That’ll be the Comms. The CAD is out of place. But, they haven’t really had their chance yet. Remember, we’ve mostly had the Asian and London’s morning session so far, for those numbers.

What else.

• USD (white) -1.86%.
• CHF (pink) -1.29%.
  Those are the only other outliers. So, basically, the safe havens are being sold, today so far. See, the Dollar can move during any session. Don’t forget, they are what the world mostly transacts with. And the Swiss was open for business for some hours now.

We’re gonna have to see what the Americans think. But, so far, it’s definitely risk-on buying.

Let me keep the perspective here in this thread. This is only the Gateway to what’s going on in the market. When it comes to our trading, we all have the obligation of finding our own particular methods of extracting profit out of the market. All this is, is a tool for knowing how they are all relating to one another. And it’s broken up into the specific sessions and how a day ends up.

The market is going to do what it does. All we should want is a piece of it. And the strategy we develop should reflect that. Knowing what’s going on in the market should not be the same as trying to figure out what the market will do.

This is just a tool.

Alright.
Boy…power (electricity) is a wonderful thing. And I guess that’s the one thing that will keep me from you guys.

Mike out.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Here’s Monday’s results.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +1.37%.
• CAD (brown) most sold that session -2.29%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency today in total +3.86%.
• CAD most sold off currency today in total -4.30%.

Ok. Well. I guess the CAD is on the downslope, huh? No help from home. And it looks like it was a pile on, not only on them but also with the JPY (purple). Were down -4.00% today.

So, I would have to say that for a Monday, the market sure was rocking. I haven’t seen stretches like this in a while. For a Monday that is.

Ok. And one more thing. The GBP is looking quite hot lately. Just look at the monthly table. They are the most bid currency running for this month so far.

Their saying to the Dollar (white)…see ya, wouldn’t want to be ya.

Alright.
Let’s just see how the week plays out. Oh, and that would be the month also. The end is ni.

Have a good night. See ya in the a. m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (358.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s happening this Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency +3.11%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency -1.50%.

It’s pretty clear that the Pound has it. Definitely most of the attention goes to them. But, aggregately speaking, it was more risk-off during Asia. The JPY (purple) was the next most bid currency +1.26%. And all the Comms fell.

I’ll leave you with the monthly table.

Alright. See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (365.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s more of what’s happening on Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency that session +2.88%.
• AUD (red) most sold currency that session -.95%.

Ok. Well, that’s 2 sessions in a row, for the most bid and the most sold currencies. That doesn’t happen much. So, we can clearly see what the consensus is, so far for today.

I’ll spell it out. The GBP is on a roll. It really is stretching out. Not only are they the most bought for the month, but also for the year running, in %'s against all others.

They are more favored than the risk-on Commodity currencies. Let’s see the month running table.

And we can plainly see that the JPY (purple) has been the most favored currency to sell, this month. Which also has confluence with the quarterly running table (see above). It’s been a sell and it hasn’t been changing all that much.

So…the only real change lately has been with the GBP. But also, I would have to say, that the CAD (brown) has dropped out of favor. They are no longer the most bought currency, in which they have been since the beginning of the year. They have been replaced. We got a new sheriff in town.

Well, that’s how I see it. We’ll have to see how the month plays out. That’s all I can do, is mention what has been happening, what’s the present sentiment, and just wonder whether it will continue or not. Right? That’s all a trader wants to know…will a trend continue or change?

Numbers don’t lie.

Only people do.

Alright. Make it a good day. And be careful.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (372.3 KB)

[purtle]

Numbers don’t lie.

Only people do.

Quote of the week!

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s see what the numbers say, for a Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid for that session +2.07%.
• USD (white) most sold that session -1.98%.
• GBP (blue) most bought currency today +6.94%.
• USD most sold off currency today -2.48%.

Well, all I know is the Pound took off like a jet today. That’s about 7% in one day! That’s all kind of uncommon.

The AUD did a good bounce back, huh? They go from losing 2 sessions in a row to winning the very next. Interesting. So, if you do the math, they ended up -.38%. Not bad. Better than little brother (NZD -1.57%).

And the Swiss (pink) was the second most sold currency today being -2.02%. And that would surely tell you something about that top spread pair, GBP/CHF. On a serious roll. I caught some of that.

Ok. I’ll leave you with the monthly table.

Alright. Have a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (361.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s some Wednesday market.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid currency +1.00%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold currency -.64%.

Not a whole lot of movement so far. This would be considered some risk-off sentiment. In fact, this pair EUR/JPY is known as a barometer of that. That’s along with the AUD/JPY pair. They are just a quick shot of risk-on or risk-off.

Anyway. It’s pretty tame so far today. We’ll have to see what London does. And it always seems to me that they just love their Pound. Will they get some more?

shrug

Alright. I’ll leave you with the monthly table.

See ya little later on.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (367.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good day mates.
Here’s more Wednesday market.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid currency their morning time +4.21%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold currency that time -3.39%.

Well, the biggest change was the Pound got another boost higher. Also noted is the CAD (brown) tagged along. The Comms took a hit. And it’s interesting that the JPY (purple) didn’t continue their domination since last session. I know (been reading some stuff about them lately) that they are getting a little concerned about a high currency (relatively speaking). They, along with the Swiss, are real anal about how much their currency gets strengthened. They simply do not like it.

So, when you see them there at the bottom…don’t be thinking it’s a bad thing. It surely isn’t! I know us humans tend to think that being in last place is not good, when you see a line up like this. But to put this in some kind of perspective, the real perspective, being last is what the big heads want.

And that doesn’t necessarily equate to what the traders have in mind. It is probably more proper to think of where the traders (money) wants things to go, than those in charge. Well, I guess when it comes to a certain point, that’s when they start intervening. Right?

You have to broaden your thinking, and remember what we’re dealing with here. It’s not just who’s in first and who’s in last place.

So, again, we should be most concerned with what the trend is, and prepare for when it changes. Not so much as trying to guess where things want to go.

Being a trader means being prepared for whatever might happen.

Alright.
Make it a good day today.
See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (374.4 KB)