Complete Currency Dynamics

[MikeWolski]

Good morning mates.
Little more Monday market.
Quarterly table.

• CHF (pink) most bid that session +1.39%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -1.06%.
• Negative flow -4.94%.

Alright. So, looks like the risk-on currencies took a hit. Or we can say that this session just retraced what was taken last session. Anyway. The market is mostly going back and forth. Like usual.

How about the monthly table.

Well, in regards to the monthly context, the 2 brothers have the upper hand. And it’s still interesting to see that the CAD (brown) is not participating with 'em. Still moving down. Man…that trio is fractured. Ever since this month got going, the CAD went straight down. Boy, they sure do sing to their own tune, huh? Reminds me of the Pound. Oh well, I’ll take it. But, isn’t Mr. Oil on the upswing? Like 59 a barrell? Hmph. shrug Must be something up with their economy, taking the sentiment, front and center in some minds.

Anyway. That’s nice.

Let’s just take it one day at a time. Right?
And let’s make it a successful day, for a Monday.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (442.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Monday’s results.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +1.29%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold that session -0.89%.
• Negative flow -2.62%.
• AUD (red) most bought currency today +1.78%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency today -2.58%.

Well, the way I see it, as you can see by the flow, that the last 2 sessions just reversed the open’s positive flow. So, kind of like a shake out. Now that’s aggregately speaking, of course. It really was a mixed bag today.

Specifically, yeah, the Pound, who rides like the Lone Ranger, took the hit today.

Monthly table.

Well, 2 weeks into the month, and that’s what it looks like. We’re at the half way point in the month.
shrug
No real changes taking place. I mean, you have the Comm bro’s at the top. The CAD (brown) on the bottom. And the Majors pretty low, comparatively speaking.

Let’s just see how the week shakes out.
Alright.
Make it a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (429.2 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s what Tuesday’s open looked like.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid +.67%.
• AUD (red) most sold -.83%.
• Some negative flow -.8%.

Not all that much movement. No currency ended that session either up or down a full %. But, it was the Pound taking some pips back.

I find it a bit interesting to see that the NZD (dark red) was a mirror to the AUD. Respectively… (+.33%, -.83%) But, then again, it’s not much movement.

The monthly table.

I mean, you only have the Pound and the Aussie battling it out for 2nd place. Their so close to each other. You’ll have that. Other than that, no changes on the polar ends. The NZD and the CAD have pulled away from the others.

Alright.
Let’s see where the Europeans want their money to go.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (436.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Little more Tuesday market.
Quarterly table.

• CAD (brown) most bid that session +1.16%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -0.77%.
• Around even with the flow .2%.

So, what do we got?
Well, for today, the AUD is still being the most sold for today. That’ll be 2 sessions in a row. And I noticed that they are the only currency that is traveling above 1%. So, for the day they are sitting at -1.60%.

The next most moving currencies are the GBP (blue) and the USD (white). +.72%, -.72%, respectively. So, I guess the market as a whole is not really taking off yet. I would say anything over 1% is mentionably moving. That’s in a day’s time.

Monthly table.

You can notice that the CAD has snapped back from the open of the day. We’ll just have to see how the day ends with them. Will they stay above the -10% level? That’s where they ended up on Friday and Monday. But, so far for today, they climbed above that level. I don’t know…we’ll have to see.

Other than that, the only thing really mentionable is the GBP (blue). They are moving. Of course they always are, right? This time it’s back up. But just look at their %'s. It’s not all that much to write home about.

Alright. Well, that’s about all I can talk about.
Every day is a new experience.
All we can do is stay tuned and find out what happened. I’m sorry. But, we’re all in the same boat together. No one has any other edge about what will happen. Need to remember that.

Make it a productive day.
See ya when it closes.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (441.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s see how the day ended. Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• CHF (pink) most bid that session +1.16%.
• AUD (red) most sold that session -.53%.
• Negative flow -2.8%.
• CHF most bid today in total +1.28%.
• AUD most sold today in total -2.13%.

Wow. The AUD got sold off today huh? Every session they were the most sold currency. But…you know…I was looking. Today was a very light day. In fact, let me give you the top of the line up, in single pairs.

• AUD/CHF -.42%.
• EUR/AUD +.39%.
• GBP/AUD +.35%.
• AUD/CAD -.28%.
• AUD/JPY -.25%.
• AUD/USD -.22%.
• CHF/JPY +.21%.

I’m done. The rest is all below those figures. Nothing else moved any greater (one way or the other) than what you see there. And all this means, is it was a very slow day. See, a normal, moving, day consists of between about .50% - 1.00%. And what we’re talking about here is volatility. How much a currency pair has moved. Don’t forget that an end of the day is never around the extreme of a day. Things always retract before it’s all over.

Anyway. My take on all of this.
I believe the market is probably setting up for a big move. Like tomorrow. First off, it’ll be Wednesday. Big moves are known to happen then. Secondly, and more importantly, tomorrow is when our FOMC meeting ends with their take on things. It’s the interest rate decision time. That’ll be at 2pm my time. And I have a feeling that all (most of it anyway) of the money is getting ready for something. Don’t even ask me what.

Basically, I think it’s the calm before the storm. It’s a getting ready.

Monthly table.

Well, to finish what I mentioned before. Looks like the CAD did not end up above the -10% level. So, I kind of think they aren’t going anywhere. I mean, who knows. It’s just how it looks right now. You would think if money (that wants it higher) wanted to take advantage of this little boost today, it would. But no. Then again, it could be tomorrow. I don’t know. Like whenever things get rolling again. The only thing they have coming is on Friday they have some CPI (inflation) data coming out. And as I see their numbers now, looks like they had a real bad showing last month. And this month looks like a bump up. That’s the expectation anyway. So, there’s a chance it’ll climb sometime this week.

Alright.
I’m done talking.
Let’s get on with the evening.
See ya tomorrow morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (431.0 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
How’s Wednesday rolling out…
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid +.62%.
• EUR (yellow) most bid also +.62%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold -1.27%.
• Negative flow -2.18%.

So, we do have a tie. That’s a first, I think. Interesting. Today is a bid day.

Monthly table.

I guess the only thing I find interesting is how the JPY (purple) dropped. And we’re talking as much as the USD rose. -.59%.

It’s looking more like a risk-off market, all except the Yen. I don’t know. Something’s up. We’ll have to see if this continues today. It surely isn’t something to be alarmed about cause we’re not talking about a whole lot here. Just interesting to me, that’s all.

Let’s get on with the day and see how they lay.
Alright. See ya later.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (437.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
More Wednesday market.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.28%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.35%.
• A bit of negative flow -.94%.

Looks like some risk-on came back during the London open thru their lunch. And the GBP is not favored whatsoever. I guess things aren’t looking good for them lately. Let’s see what the monthly table looks like.

Well, as you can see, we basically have a lot of non-moving currencies there in the middle. Then you have the NZD (dark red) keeping the most bid currency for the month. And then you have the CAD (brown) as the most sold off currency this month. It’s pretty cut and dry.

But in total aggregate…the CAD is what’s grabbing the most consensus. Sitting at -10.58%. It’s kind of nice when things like that continue. Right? Makes our jobs a bit easier.

See, I will always truly believe that if you keep an eye out with what’s happening between all of them, it can result in an accurate sentiment. Otherwise known as knowing what’s going on.

Well…speaking of that…in about 5 hours or so from now, we should see something move. Sure, not all at once, cause I think the big money wants the dust to settle first and strategically move the market the way it wants to. But, give it the rest of the week and we should have a clearer sense of the direction of things.

And see, this is a good thing here, cause we can always compare whether the market wants to continue or make a change in the way it was going. Got to know what’s been happening first. And then to see it unravel.

Alright. I’m done babbling.
Let’s get on with the day.
Make it count.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (443.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Let’s see how it flew.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +3.28%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -4.32%.
• Negative flow -9.04%.
• CHF (pink) most bid currency today +3.25%.
• GBP most sold currency today -6.53%.

Well now we have some movement. Yeah boy, the market took off. Let’s see if I can put some kind of summary to it. Aggregately speaking.
But, I need to put up the monthly table first.

I can’t really see any risk-on or risk-off sentiment. I think we have a bunch of different stuff going on. And it has to do with a lot of single currencies traveling their own way. Let’s see.

• EUR (yellow) driving high.
• CHF (pink) also very much a bid.
• GBP (blue) …God help them. Not good.
• JPY (purple) got a boost higher.
• USD (white) sank.
• CAD (brown) down.

The Comms (NZD,AUD) are favoring the bid more than the sell.

I don’t know. Will this propel the EUR and the CHF up and coming? From the looks of today, it might be in the cards. But I just don’t know. We’ll have to see how the week ends.

One point I do want to make though. We have a little time, but next week is not only the end of the month, but the end of the 1st quarter. And I bet things are gonna fly. I’ll call it a repositioning of the portfolio’s. Look. It’s just what goes through my mind during this time period. I’m cautious and aware of that. You should be too.

All we can do is be objective about it. But, in the meantime, I’ll tell you when I see a real change. We need more time though. Cause today really can be just a knee jerk reaction. Once all the sessions get their turns, we’ll have a better idea where the consensus lies. Right?

Alright. I’m done here.
See ya in the morning time.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (433.0 KB)

[ria_rose]

It’s been a while @MikeWolski! But I’m super happy to see that you’re doing great. Keep it up! I’ll always be cheering for you. Woooooh!

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s some Thursday market.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +2.57%.
• USD (white) most sold that session -1.55%.
• Positive flow 5.98%.

Well, this is mostly some risk-on sentiment. The only currency to go against the grain up there in the table is the CAD (brown). And no real big surprise there.

Look like is was all about the NZD and the AUD. +2.57% & +1.73%.

Monthly table.

Since the last session, looks like there wasn’t any follow thru buying of the EUR (yellow) and the CHF (pink). But again, it’s not their turn yet. We’ll have to see what they themselves think, coming up now.

Alright. Well, may the risk-on continue. Right?
Let’s make it count today.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (440.1 KB)

–Thanks Rose!!

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Here’s a little more Thursday market.
Quarterly table.

• USD (white) most bid that session +2.16%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -4.00%.
• Negative flow -7.06%.

Wow. The USD really turned the open tide, huh? They go from the most sold during Asia to the most bought currency during London’s morning time. Interesting.

The Pound (blue) is really taking a hit. Just look at yesterday’s sessions. Now 4% is quite a lot. Especially for one session. I feel bad for them.

Don’t worry. I’m keeping watch on things. You can call me the watchman. So, what’s the EUR (yellow) up to?
For this we have to go to the monthly table.

All you have to do is look at the yellow. Yesterday was some exuberance. Their coming back down. So, don’t get all that carried away with them, just yet. Remember how I always say that we need a little more time to see how things progress? (I know…I hate always having to say that…I’m sorry…but it’s the game)

And the CHF (pink) is riding right along with them. Now that’s normal.

Oh, I almost forgot, I wanted to mention the relationship of the USD (white) and the JPY (purple), today. I’ve been telling you this a lot. But, it’s happening again. Not only did the USD grab some pips, but the JPY tailed them also. They were up +1.83% this session. That’s quite a bit. Just under what big brother took (look above).

Again. We definitely have some brotherhood here.

• USD & JPY.
• AUD & NZD.
• EUR & CHF.

Hey…I’m here to remind us all of these currency dynamics.
Also, we need to see what the end of the day will tell us also (I’m forever having to remind myself of that).

Alright.
Let’s make the most of this day, huh?
Mike out.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (446.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
How did Thursday end…
Quarterly table.

• CHF (pink) most bid that session +2.62%.
• NZD (dark red) most sold that session -1.48%.
• Negative flow -6.10%.
• CHF most bid currency for today +1.92%.
• GBP (blue) most sold currency for today -3.32%.

Wow. I think this is kind of weird. It was the USD, CHF, show today. Also the JPY (purple). But I find it interesting to see that the AUD (red) and the NZD (dark red) were right up there with those other 3. Look.

• CHF (pink) +1.92%.
• USD (white) +1.70%.
• AUD (red) +1.24%.
• NZD (dark red) +.96%.
• JPY (purple) +.94%.

The rest of the currencies are in the negative. But, I can’t call it any kind of risk-on or risk-off scenario. Things are flying all by themselves. I mean, you would think that there’s a bit of safe haven buying. But what explains the Comms right up there? shrug

Well, I do know that the GBP (blue) and the CAD (brown) are dragging dirt lately.

Ok. How about the monthly table.

The only thing I see kind of out of place is the Swiss (pink). Man…they took Tuesday, Wednesday, and today! Yep, there’s definitely something going on. And I don’t know what.

But, on the other hand. Does it really matter? All we really need to be aware of is that there’s a consensus of buying the Swiss this week.

Alright. Well, be careful out there. It could be dangerous.
See ya in the morning.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (435.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
It’s Friday. Let’s see how it’s playing out.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +2.12%.
• CHF (pink) most sold that session -1.07%.
• Positive flow 3.68%.

Alright. Well, the market went back to some positive flow. It’s been since about 3 sessions ago. And the CHF finally sold some. The GBP finally got bought. That’s been awhile also.

How about the monthly table.

I don’t know. Kind of looks steady to me. The NZD (dark red) was up there with the Pound. That seems to be who you want to buy. Well, this month anyway. Also, the CAD seems to be the one to sell.

And speaking of the CAD. Today will bring important news. Boy…I just hope the market is right. It would be awesome to see some bad numbers, huh? Look. It’s just been going that way. Like, why not go all the way. Right?

Alright. Let’s get on with a Friday. The weekend is close.
See ya in a few hours.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (442.6 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
How’s Friday rolling out.
Quarterly table.

• JPY (purple) most bid that session +4.46%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold that session -4.52%.
• Negative flow -1.86%.

Wow. We have some movement going on now. The Yen is climbing. And that’s not with any kind of relationship with the Dollar either. Something’s happening there. Well, all we really need to know is that a lot of money is moving there.

The EUR is crashing, relatively speaking. And remember just a couple days ago, when the FOMC spoke. A lot of exuberant buying happening then. Well, now we know, that was nonsense. It’s not what the real movers want. See, this is what we need. We have to be patient to get the sense of where money really wants to go.

Monthly table.

Well, what has been predictable, over time, is that the CAD (brown) is still being sold off. Today will be interesting with them. Oh…that would be about right now. Well, I better hurry up with this.

One more thing. The Swiss isn’t all that strong either. Unless there is some profit taking from this week. Today is Friday, and we need to realize the profit taking trading aspect. As opposed to the direction of things.

That might be what’s happening with the GBP also today. They’ve taking such a hit lately.

Alright. Let’s run the week out.
See ya at the end.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (449.3 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
It’s over. Let’s see what happened.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +3.54%.
• CAD (brown) most sold that session -2.57%.
• Negative flow -1.62%.
• GBP most bought today in total +6.51%.
• EUR (yellow) most sold today in total -5.04%.

Wow. We got a lot going on here. Changes occurring. I’ll tell you what I think.

Broadly speaking.

• JPY (purple) is on the rise.
• EUR (yellow) is on the slide.

Take a look at the monthly table.

Yep. It’s confirmed. All you have to do is look at the purple and yellow. And what big moves today. In fact, I looked at their chart. Zoomed way out. I put in a long term trade. I’ve always wanted to do that. Well, it’s an entry limit order. If it drops to 123.820, I’ll be in. And I won’t touch that for a long time. No take profits. No stop losses. I’m calling the fundamentals about it. I think it has hundreds of pips to go.

Anyway. That’s something totally separate from my swing trading strategy that I operate. I just wanted to mention that to ya.

Alright. Back to the changes. Any else?
Well, the CAD sure told me, today, that the money doesn’t want to go there. I mean, they didn’t have all that bad of data come out. I thought it was quite good. I’m no economist, but I’m pretty sure it beat expectations. Anyway. I was surprised to see it eventually lost even more pips. Across the board.

What else. The Comms. Well, the AUD (red) took a real hit today. And their brother, just, didn’t. Something’s up with that. I kind of think that we just might be going away with the risk-on sentiment. Look. I’m thinking the Yen has something to say about that.

We’ll see. All I’m doing here is thinking. That’s all. Our strategies should not be based upon that. Well, mine isn’t anyway.

Alright. That’s all good and nice.
It’s the weekend. And I’m excited! I got another book. Came yesterday. And cannot wait to read it.
Essentialism
Mckeown

Make the most of it!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (434.9 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Welcome to the last week of the month, and quarter. Let’s see how it’s gonna unravel.
The Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.30%.
• GBP (blue) most sold that session -2.05%.
• Positive flow .4%.

Well, first off, it’s Monday, and things are moving slowly. So we can’t expect much. But, I would say that there is slightly more risk-on buying than risk-off.

Let’s look at the monthly table.

Well, to be honest with you, the only 2 currencies that ended the session in negative numbers was the GBP (blue), and the CHF (pink). -2.05% & -1.08%.

And the NZD was the only other currency to be greater than 1%. All other currencies were below 1%.

So, we really need more time to get a sense of what’s happening. But don’t forget, it’s very possible to see some moves this week. We don’t know when it’ll happen, or how. We just need to be ready for anything. And it might be large.

I remember last Friday. It was the EUR (yellow) and the JPY (purple). I’m gonna keep my eye on those 2, and see if any more moves come out of them.

Alright. Let’s get moving on this Monday.
See ya in a few.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (435.5 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning again.
Alright. Let’s see how Monday’s playing out.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.54%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.80%.
• Positive flow 1.64%.

Ok. Well, that’s more risk-on sentiment. Nothing says risk-on/risk-off than the AUD/JPY pair. And that’s our most bought and sold currencies that session.

Looks like the NZD (dark red) relinquished the control over to big brother, for the second session. Little more confirmation of that sentiment, huh?

What’s the monthly table looking like?

Honestly, there’s not much I can say. It’s Monday and no real moves happen on this day. All we can do is just compare how the Europeans think as opposed to the Asians. Well, that’s one way of looking at it.

The JPY (purple) buying slowed up a good bit. We’ll have to see what the Americans think about that. Will they want more Yen? Or less?

We’ll see.
Alright. I’m done talking. Time to get some real work done.
Make it a good day today!
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (446.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good evening.
Monday’s in the books. Let’s see what happened.
Quarterly table.

• NZD (dark red) most bid that session +1.90%.
• USD (white) most sold that session -1.40%.
• Positive flow 5.82%.
• NZD took the day being +2.82% today.
• JPY (purple) lost the day being -1.89% today.

Looks like both the USD (-1.28%) and the JPY were a favorite for a sell today. Well, the Pound joined them also today (-1.68%).

Other than that, I would say that the Comm brothers had the most attention, for a buy.

Look. I know this is the easiest job in the world to do. And that would be hindsight announcements. Believe me, I’m aware of it. And I hate it. But, just remember, I’m the watchman. I believe the more you pay attention and are aware of how things are progressing, you have that much more of an edge.

Anyway. How about the monthly table.

Now…I don’t think there’s an excuse to not know that the NZD/CAD trade has been a good trade (believe me, I’ve reaped much from that). But, all you have to do is see how much percentages they are on the ends there.

I do have to say though. I’m backing off now, from that. We’re heading into the end of the month, quarter. Things very well might get shaken up. No doubt I can be wrong about that. But, it would be stupid not to be aware of it, at least. Know what I mean?

Don’t worry. I’m keeping my eye on the Yen. Big brother is watching. I’ll let you know if they really want to go somewhere. Plus…you’ll see it with your own eyes.

Alright. Enough nonsense.
Let’s make it a good night.
See ya in the a.m.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (441.1 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
What’s happening on this Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• AUD (red) most bid that session +1.15%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -1.20%.
• Positive flow 2.54%.

Yeah, I thought this looked familiar. It wasn’t the last Asian session, but it was during London’s open yesterday. The 'ol risk-on scenario.

It is kind of weird to see the NZD (dark red) not get any of that. They ended that session being -.70%. shrug Interesting, I think. We’ll see.

How about the monthly table.

Look. There’s not all that much movement happening with those currencies in the middle. Their all within a couple percent of each other. The outer ones would have to move a good bit to get knocked off. Cause seems like their untouchable, unless a major move would happen.

It’s still on the early side. But, if there would be a real change, I would think it to come like Wednesday. We’ll just have to see. Thinks like to fly on Wednesday’s.

Alright. Let’s move on.
Make it a good day today.
Mike.
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (447.7 KB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning.
Little more Tuesday.
Quarterly table.

• GBP (blue) most bid that session +2.26%.
• JPY (purple) most sold that session -2.36%.
• Positive flow 5.2%.

Alright. Here we go. Let me show you how the day is unraveling. I took this pic only about 2 minutes before 8am.

That’s the JPY. Yes. They are what’s being most sold today in total. It’s a pile on today, so far. So, by looking at it this way, we can see that the GBP is what’s mostly being bought.

I also find it interesting that the AUD and the CAD are quite a bit bid. But not the NZD (In the comms context). In fact, the NZD is the second to the most being sold. Next comes the CHF.

Well, if you look up at my table up there, the running %'s since the beginning of the year, it all lines up. All except the NZD. I find that interesting.

Let’s look at the monthly table.

I don’t know. You can probably cut and splice it many different ways. And I don’t want to do that anymore. All I know is that I’m wanting to find some meaningful changes. And at the present time, I’m not finding any. First off, the end of the day hasn’t come yet. Secondly, until the ends (NZD, CAD) get replaced, I wouldn’t say much is happening.

You never know, there might be a reason the JPY climbed up to second (EOD yesterday), and maybe by the end of the week, it could happen. All I’m saying…is don’t count them out. Just yet.

As always. We need more time. First, EOD. Then day by day. Then, the end of the week. But honestly…I don’t really care. I’m just throwing out real possibles. Remember, never hope. Play the probabilities.

Alright.
Let’s get some real work done today.
Mike
MY DAILY’S.xlsx (454.0 KB)