yeah, it’s terrible how quickly people shut those lift doors without checking everyone’s completely inside 
But that is better than perpetually staring at screens in the dark and living off junk food :
Aloha Manxx,
Thanks for sharing what you did. We all need to help each other come into balance on all sorts of matters, and I’m glad you shared what you did. Shall we all hide from correction or shrink from correcting? Of course, not. If we can’t help each other see what needs to be seen, then these forums are useless. [quote=“Manxx, post:7, topic:109014”]
The weekly does give a longer term view of what is the underlying trend but any TA analysis of it is also so long term and turns sooooooooo slowly that one has either fallen asleep, forgotten one even had a position open or maybe even died in the meantime!
[/quote]
You’re right about that! My weekly was looking good, but them went into a range. Can you imagine four, five or nore weekly candles before it breaks out of a range? I thought I might die first. And all the while not knowing which way it will go, and your trading capital tied up in the negative zone so you can’t lock in profits and use that capital for another trade? I think I’m cured of weeklies, at least for now.[quote=“Manxx, post:7, topic:109014”]
I have actually this summer started to focus on analysing the daily chart in a more tradeable way. I have no results from it yet, but if you like, I am happy to share some of the thoughts and results with you if you think it might catalyse your own developments in these longer timeframes?
[/quote]
Absolutely! At present, my psychological parameters are M15 to D1, mostly hovering around H4, but I am presently trying some stuff on the daily, and expect to continue doing so. Also, at present, I’m getting ready for massive demos of tradeline bounces modeled after Myronn Saremo’s system, which looks excellent: Advanced strategy #10 (Trend Line Trading Strategy) | Forex Strategies & Systems Revealed. I’m also trying some other stuff, but I think the trendline bounces look most promising, especially with the use of a trendline-price crossover alert that I just discovered. Anything you can think of that can help help me along - whatever system(s) you use - will be more than welcome. If you think what you have to share would be more on the personal side and not for public broadcasting, there must be a way via Babypips to communicate with me personally. At least there was with the old format. If you’d like my personal email address, go to my website, www.BibleStudyProject.org, and pull it off the bottom of the home page just above the PayPal button.
P.S. If you have any pull with Santa, tell him I could use a good retirement bundle - which is why I’m breaking my head over forex!
Thank you, and take care!
Norm!
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Hi Norman,
I really enjoyed reading your story! Very interesting! That’s quite a life you have lived! 
It seems you are involved in some very important work in your life right now and I wish you well with that.
I think one of the biggest decisions that any newcomer to retail forex trading has to decide, right from the start, is whether they are aiming at earning an income from trading, or building capital, or utilising existing capital.
Utilising existing capital is perhaps the easiest of these in that one can pick and choose when and where and how much to invest in positions and afford to sit with them for as long as seems sensible. The only serious criteria is recognising how much one is prepared to risk and can afford to lose!
Building up a capital base is also somewhat easier in that there is no pressure to perform according to preset deadlines or defined targets but can be extremely frustrating when there are periods when nothing seems to go right!
Attempting to earn a living, or supplementing a limited income is perhaps the hardest of all. The need to perform is extreme and there is a natural tendency towards short-term trading in order to create drawable income on a regular basis. The pressures and emotional swings in this category can be intense and it draws a huge amount of concentration and study. And it is eminently clear just from this site that most people looking to earn a living from retail forex trading do actually fail. There are few success stories here from previous Babypippers coming back to say how it all worked out so well for them - but there is a constant stream of Newbies who come here, post about their enthusiasm…and then disappear. Why that is, I really don’t know, but I can guess…
So it is necessary to be realistic about what one is looking for and what are the chances of achieving it - and whether one can afford to make all the other non-financial sacrifices such as time, stress and concentration which would otherwise be devoted to other things, albeit also non-financial - which might even be, perhaps, more important and rewarding areas of activity.
There is positive stress and there is negative stress. and recognising which is present in one’s trading development is a good way to conclude whether it is really the right field to be in, or not.
You are currently looking at a lot of things that interest you - let us know how you are getting on and how they work out…
Thank you, Manxx.
Not smart enough to figure out what category I fit into. What I can tell you is this: I’m way past the age of retirement, am still working, and have a small - read “small” - stash for trading live when my demos warrant it. Well, what the heck! I have $2500 set aside. I’m well aware of the power of compounding, and am hoping to do that with my investment. I have done plenty of studying in “all” aspects of forex, including the math, will continue to do so, and will be very careful with risk management. As my account grows, I hope to relieve my wife and myself of the burden of substitute teaching, which we can let go of gradually as we can accept or reject jobs on a daily basis. Lord willing, we’ll be able to completely retire and live off of forex withdrawals (I’m not talking about forex addiction!) based on good trading and financial management. Well, THAT is the category I fit into!
I’ve just shifted from a stage of intense study to a stage of massive demo trading - as much as I could pull off with my school schedule, which will begin in a couple of weeks, and without being too rushed and exhausted that I screw up, which I just did last night! After preaching above about not trading against the trend - you’ll never guess! And it was so obvious, right there on the chart I was trading! And I didn’t see it until I was well into the trade! What I’m planning on doing is typing out checklists a mile long that I hope I’ll have the patience and diligence to follow. There are so many factors! And I’m still learning which are significant and which I could let go of so I won’t be paralyzed waiting for “the perfect trade!” I’m also recording every trade, with commentary, on an Excel sheet, which I’ve just begin to gain some fluidity with, at least with the basics, which is fine for now. I’ve also made progress in understanding how to use Forex Tester 3. So as you see, I’m making an intensive effort. I hope one day to be in the set-it-and-forget-it league, so I can have a life without having my head stuck in my monitor. I’m not there yet when I have the time to monitor a trade - it’s not that I haven’t learned to accept losses, it’s mostly because as I study the progression of a trade I make observations, learn and come to conclusions. I have no doubt, though, that I can launch an H4 trade, for example, and then go to work. I’ve done it, and I didn’t bite my nails down to my elbows, so I’m coming along.
What kinds of trades am I practicing? Trend line bounces and a simple “winning trade” sent by FT3. According to their testing, 55 SMA (among many SMAs they’ve tested) on the daily EURUSD, traded by tossing a coin for buy and sell, with nothing more added, not even a TP, and opening, closing, and then opening a new trade at candle close and open, is supposed to bring good profits over the course of time. I’m trying it exactly as they say, except, because of my location, I’m doing it mid-candle to mid-candle every 24 hours; and am also trying 55 SMA on the daily EURUSD combined with price action and a couple of interventions that I think will help, especially letting winners run by locking in profits, and then comparing the two approaches. On the back burner are trading engulfing candles, pinbars, inside bars, etc. I know the value of learning one approach well, but I’d also like to be able to look at a chart and see a good setup, whichever variety it is, and trade it appropriately. My grandson is a commercial fisherman, and he pulls up whatever is out there, not waiting for one kind of fish to jump in his boat!
Well, there you have it. Any comments, shoot 'em over.
Take care, Manxx,
Norm
Hi Norman!
Well at least your enthusiasm and optimism are both well in place, as indeed is your industriousness
But in addition to the classic optimist/pessimist distinction of whether the glass is half empty or half full, we traders also have a greater need for a third quality, realism or pragmatism: simply what can I actually expect to achieve with half a glass.
Whilst 2500 is ample to start trading on a live basis, it is still necessary to establish what one is eventually aiming for and whether it is realistically achievable. In your case, you appear to have (sensibly) divided your plan into two stages: a) an initial building up your capital base, and b) then earning a regularly drawable income from it whilst maintaining this capital base at least at a constant level.
If you have been doing the math then you will have already determined some kind of anticipated realistic rate of return on your 2500 based on your trading approach, R:R and success/failure rate. Naturally, we have to keep in mind that the 2500 is not really “capital” that we are “investing”. Rather, it is simply a deposit placed with the broker to guarantee possible losses arising from taking fictitious positions with sums far beyond what we actually possess in the hope that the change in exchange rate will go in our favour. It is not really capital in the true sense of investment capital, it is just our stack of chips on the table.
We just hope that we can develop a method that will overall consistently create more winnings than losses.
There are many ways of calculating a level of income with respect to a certain capital base, and there have been many threads here about it, all of which conclude that in order to possibly earn a reasonable full-time income from trading, one would require a very substantial capital sum.
But not everyone is looking for a complete normal “salary”, but maybe just some level of supplement to put some icing on an otherwise mundane income. In which case one could look at it in terms of how many good trades would be required, how big the positions should be and is it realistic with my capital. For example, (and this is only a very loose, of the top of my head, thought process, by way of logical planning).
If I am looking to trade on a 4H timeframe then I could loosely guessimate that, on average, I might see perhaps 10-12 quality trade signals per month? If I anticipate a success rate of maybe 60% then perhaps 6-9 trades may win against 4-5 losing trades? Therefore maybe a net of around 4 trades per month.
If I then overlay that with the R:R, then if it is greater than 1:1 up to, say, 1:2, my net equiv trades may be around 6-7 per month?
If, then, I have assessed that my likely target pips on a 4H trade is in the region of 50-100 pips, i.e. an average of 75 per trade? Then my estimated pip earnings per month could be around 500 per month?
Then I would have to calculate my actual earnings per pip according to my intended position size - or, alternatively, I can instead now jump ahead to my targetted income level and then work back to establish how big a position size I would have to always take in order to achieve that level of income.
Then I can compare that position size with my deposit “capital” and decide if it is reasonable risk or not.
This kind of thought process is always entirely hypothetical and results vary tremendously from month to month, but it gives an indication of the overall order of magnitude and what are the realistic expectations of risk versus reward. It also gives some kind of idea how long it might take to build an initial capital sum up to the level considered suitable for the position sizes required.
Once again, this is an area where there is no right or wrong solution and I am sure other people will have very different ideas on how to approach the math side. But one thing is surely certain - that some kind of math has to be performed in order to assess the realism of one’s ambitions, the timescales involved and the risks involved.
I don’t know if this helps or confuses, but clarity is often born from a state of confusion and chaos! 
Wow, Manxx, you really are the math head! What is your background? Do you trade for a living? Do you use your math at work? What kind of work do you do?
As far as my account amount goes: If I earn a consistent net profit, I’ll add a portion regularly from my work income, and there may be another source I can draw from, as well. What I’m truly counting on though, is good trading and good compounding.
Here’s a quote from Clint, from Honorary Member Q&A: Clint
…
[I]I would urge newbies to learn the power of COMPOUNDING modest, but consistent, daily profits — and, then, letting those profits grow exponentially to build wealth.
There are three elements here:
modest profits — don’t take huge risks swinging for the fences;
consistent profits — this means accurately following a trading method which has a high win-ratio; and
compound profits — let your profits accumulate in your account; and, as your account grows, increase the size of your trades in proportion to the size of your account.
If you can consistently AVERAGE a net profit of just 20 pips each day, you can earn an average 1% increase in the value of your account each day, while trading with no more than 5:1 actual leverage, and limiting your risk to less than 2% on each trade.
A steady 1% increase per day
= a little more than 5% per week (compounded over 5 trading days per week)
= a little more than 24% per month (22 trading days per month)
= almost 1,000% per year (240 trading days per year, allowing for vacations and holidays).
Where else can you legally make 1,000% per year on your initial capital, without taking extraordinary risks?
…
Pretty impressive for just 20 pips per trading day. I could easily see the 24% a month. 1,000% a year? I hope he’s correct, but I haven’t plugged the numbers into a formula to check. But 24% a month? Cowabonga! That’s something to shoot for!
I’m motivated to learn well enough to go live, and then max my trading out without forgetting about the rest of life!
Those are my intentions and goals.
Have a great day,
Norm
Not criticizing your vision at all, and hoping for your great success, but do you know what proportion of retail forex traders ever achieves 24% per month growth steadily?
Do you know what proportion ever achieves 5% per month?
Do you know what proportion ever achieves any steady monthly profit at all?
Do you know what proportion ever achieves profit by copying an unbacktested, unforward-tested “system” from a site like Forex Strategies Revealed where the people submitting their systems are other random, unknown, untested, unproven amateurs and there’s no editorial selection-process at all before they’re published there?
With respect, Norman, your current expectations are unreasonable ones.
You don’t know me at all, but you seem (very wisely) to have respect for Manxx. Ask him whether you think it’s reasonable to pin your hopes on that system and whether he thinks the growth you envisage is a reasonable expectation. And put your confidence in his reply, as I would.
I’m posting to say this because I hope you do well, but your current thoughts and plans are going to let you down.
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Not really, Norman, it was just a loose chain of logical deduction as an example of how one can relate position size with risk and expectations. It’s just a bit of a juggling process to find the right balance between acceptable (and survivable) risk and a reward that will make the risk worthwhile and achieve the desired objectives.
[quote=“LaughingCharlie, post:15, topic:109014”]
Not criticizing your vision at all, and hoping for your great success, but do you know what proportion of retail forex traders ever achieves 24% per month growth steadily?
Do you know what proportion ever achieves 5% per month?
Do you know what proportion ever achieves any steady monthly profit at all?
Do you know what proportion ever achieves profit by copying an unbacktested, unforward-tested “system” from a site like Forex Strategies Revealed where the people submitting their systems are other random, unknown, untested, unproven amateurs and there’s no editorial selection-process at all before they’re published there?
With respect, Norman, your current expectations are unreasonable ones.[/quote]
Yes, I do fully agree with LC here - concerning both the “Forex Strategies Revealed” strategy and the likelihood of achieving a consistent average 24% growth per month:
Forex Strategies Revealed “Trend Line Trading Strategy”
This strategy was posted there in 2008 and the thread continued for a little over a year. It is based on very sound principles of identifying trendlines and entering positions on reversals off these lines. It uses multiple timeframes and is easy to execute and to apply a sensible risk/reward control - all good stuff.
However, that is all it is as far as I can see. And its effectiveness relies on skilled recognition and application of trendlines and S/R levels. This is really just normal application of basic PA techniques. One can, of course, develop skills in this but I don’t see this as any more effective than any other PA-based method?
I have not read through the entire thread but I noticed one comment that does indicate there are tangible risks with this method:
“…in my trading business plan I have added a provision where I will stop trading if at any week losses exceed 20% of account equity”…"I will not trade any currency pair or closely correlated pair,especially the more volatile ones,for at least a week after 2 consecutive losses within a week. This will help you avoid revenge trading witch was also a factor in blowing up my demo account."
In addition, this particular method requires constant screen monitoring to catch the candle that creates the trade opportunity before placing the order:
“I place a sell stop order, at least 5pips below the LOW of the candle that touches or intersects the trendline…You must place your order when that candle closes.”
Personally, I do not hold out much hope for gaining consistent and regular profits from this type of mechanised approach to trade entry. I would personally prefer to evaluate each and every bounce individually. If it was really working well then that thread would probably still be going today some 9 years later? But, of course, I may well be totally wrong here!
24% monthly growth
I am not a great fan of these kinds of projections because markets do not perform in the uniform, cyclical fashion that that would be necessary for this to be achieved on a regular basis.
Although 20 pips per day may sound easy, it is not quite so simple as it sounds. If the first trade of the day is stopped out then you will need a least two more trades to get your 20 pips - and that is only if your stoploss is also 20 pips. And if you are looking for 20 pips from an hourly or 4H chart then 20 pips as a stoploss is not much at all…and then there are always those days when just nothing goes right and you end up with 60 pips loss as the starting point for the next day’s trading?
Also, this is based on 20+ trading days per month. Personally, I think that is a lot! Many traders ignore Mondays totally and some also Fridays. Then there are national holidays, quiet days before data releases, etc. and then one’s own days when normal life obligations get in the way! Personally, I work my own trading plan on about only 10-12 selected trading days per month.
In addition, as with the strategy comments above, these trade opportunities for a possible 20 pip gain do not conveniently always line up at , say, 9 o’clock in the morning before going off to work for the day. They can, and do, turn up at almost any time and it is extremely stressful and tiring to sit around waiting for the right moment - and this doesn’t always fit well with other commitments. Although this can be mitigated by setting specific trading hours when trades are most likely to occur such as the first 2-3 hours of the London and/or NY sessions.
It is certainly possible to gain 20 pips on a particular day, but can one realistically (there’s that word again! ) hope to gain it on average every single trading day? I doubt that somehow.
I am not any kind of authority on trader expectations or verified results but I get the impression that 3-5% annually is generally considered a good result?
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Most grateful for your thoughtful, detailed reply, Manxx!
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Hi Guys,
Thank you for your assessments of realistic possibilities, but here’s the deal: I have nothing else to turn to at this point, so I’ll do the best I can with it.
I’m not trying to blow you guys off or stiff-arm further comments; I’m simply saying that I need to do what I can to make the best of it, and I will.
Norm
You were the catalyst here, LC, thanks for your own input here, too! It is exactly this kind of mutual sharing and exploring of ideas, thoughts and experiences that surely should be of benefit to us all?
As we all know, we are all on the same side here just finding our way forward in a sea of grey, hoping to find the reality amongst the dreams!
We understand that Norman. And that is why we are trying to help expose the realities and the issues ahead. Surely it is better to approach this with eyes open rather than under any misconceptions?
I am sure you agree that you do not have much leeway for error here so is it not better to foresee and avoid some possible pitfalls rather than have to try and recover lost ground after any costly setbacks?
The aim is to be positive and realistic. Forex is cold, heartless and unforgiving, but rewards well those that respect it and approach it with professionalism and humility - and a fair dose of patience!
Absolutely. I don’t anything in this arena for granted. I’ll just keep moving ahead.
Thanks,
Norm
Hi Norman,
I sense a degree of frustration and maybe even a touch of irritation with the comments you have received here - and I guess that is not surprising since it has been pretty much “negative” in nature! (although one has to be careful to distinguish between destructive negativity and positive critical analysis).
I am really sorry if I have dented your enthusiasm and questioned your anticipated level of success in this endeavour, maybe I am just too cautious to be of any real assistance to anyone in this field. I will have to, once again, seriously re-evaluate what I am actually contributing here on BP!
But I am convinced from what I have seen here on BP and in my earlier work, that there is little more pyschologically destructive than failing in financial matters such as retail forex trading. It is such a personal defeat, and oh so often feels so totally unjustified when one has put one’s best into it and the market still just rubs your nose in the mud and walks off leaving you there, defeated, demoralised, frustrated, bitter and angry with both oneself and the world - and often broke, too! Usually, there is not even any chance of sufficient financial recovery in order to take another shot at it, and one is left struggling along even worse than prior to the forex venture.
The finality of financial destruction with no hope of resurrection is almost as devastating as dealing with the finality of death itself. My earlier years as a specialist mortgage lender and handling serious collateral issues including serious arrears and repossessions taught me a lot about that.
I subsequently also spent a total of 8 years as a dealer/trainer/supervisor in the trading room of an international bank, and also saw the emotional pressures of trading upon new dealers - but that was nothing compared with the damage done via personal financial difficulties such as can so easily occur in retail trading - and sometimes even in a flash, in a few minutes…just the wiping out of months of work is bad enough, but a total wipeout is a total disaster.
So I guess I am maybe too far biased towards cautionary advice than encouraging flag-waving! And maybe I have said enough and should leave you alone here! It is possible to make consistent profits from forex trading (I have traded now for over 7 years) but it is complex and very demanding and littered with minefields- as is any serious profession…as I am sure you know from your own experiences!
I hope some others will be able to be a little more encouraging than I have been!
I wish you all the best, Norman, and I really look forward to reading your success stories in the near future
Hi Manxx,
You say that you are sorry . . . “but,” and you continue on. I believe that you are both trying to help and are sorry at the same time for causing me disillusionment. Yes, I did feel it was time for me to put my defenses up - not because I was feeling disillusioned, which I wasn’t, but because of the repetition.
I do think you carried on a bit too much. Why that is I’ll let you figure out for yourself. However, I’m not disillusioned by what you and LC said. I know what I am capable of. I am aware of the forex failure rate and have read of many people blowing their accounts. Probably the main reason for that is that many dove in unprepared, which I do not intend to do. I am also aware of the slow rate of account growth that many experience.
My eyes are on those who have done well with forex - earning a living at it and better - and there’s no reason that I see that I can’t be among them. I have mastered a number of things in my life without the level of formal training that many have had, and I see no reason why I can’t master competent trading. I’ll keep going, being careful as I go, and strive for mastery come what may.
Thank you and take care,
Norm
[quote=“NormanA, post:23, topic:109014”]
I do think you carried on a bit too much… However, I’m not disillusioned by what you and LC said. I know what I am capable of. I am aware of the forex failure rate and have read of many people blowing their accounts. Probably the main reason for that is that many dove in unprepared, which I do not intend to do. I am also aware of the slow rate of account growth that many experience [/quote]
Fair enough.
“But” since you came here as a post seventy year old Newbie, offering nothing more concrete than näive enthusiasm and a strong drive, and then talking about earning 1000% per annum profits, then I think we may be forgiven for being just a little over-concerned about your awareness of the risks involved here!
But, if nothing else , you have opened my eyes that if I cannot even reach someone like you without offending them, then I really have nothing to offer here on BP. Thank you for that lesson…
Good luck and Rom 12:18
Manxx,
You’re exaggerating, misrepreresenting, and cherry-picking what I said, and are now turning to personal attacks. My conversation with you on this matter are over unless you change your attitude.
There were no personal attacks.
Nor was there any exaggeration or misrepresentation.
As Manxx said, and for sure many other readers of the thread are feeling, it isn’t possible to read this without being very concerned about your perceptions of what’s involved, here.
Your enthusiasm is admirable.
But when you’re talking about copying a system from the Trading Strategies Revealed site and making over 20% per month profit from it, it’s clear that your total lack of experience is doing the talking.
That isn’t anywhere near realistic, and people are trying to help you by explaining that to you.
Charlie and Manxx are both quite right.
I’m sorry and surprised to see you criticizing the “attitude” of people trying to help you.
That would be your loss.
People are trying to HELP you, here.
People who have been, and are, where you want to get to.
I have no dog in this fight, but it seems to me that you’re the one whose attitude could do with being changed.
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Do you think maybe you have a different impression of what being “prepared” means, from the people offering comments and advice to you here?
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Hi everyone, including Manxx,
Misunderstandings are easy to come by, especially when people are not conversing face to face. What I have to say will be a response to various comments made above, including comments made by me.
Manxx, you referred to me as a “post seventy year old newbie.” I took it as a personal attack because I didn’t see what my age had to do with anything. I now see the possibility that you were referring to how little time I have left to learn. If that’s what you meant, or something similar, then I’m sorry for misinterpreting it as a personal attack.
To those of you who are concerned about my gullibility about overnight riches, please let me assure you that I am not. I could see how I went bonkers over Clint’s numbers; but on a deeper level, I know that if I do a fraction as well as his possibility projections, I’ll be a happy camper. I could see how my enthusiasn was misleading; but deeper down I knew better than to assume fabulous success. If you reread my posts, especially the last few posts, you can see how I intimated that I am vulnerable to loss or small profits, just as anyone else is. For example, “I don’t take anything in this [forex] arena for granted. I’ll just keep moving ahead;” and "I’ll keep going, being careful as I go, and strive for mastery come what may.
We can kick this dog around forever, and I’d rather not. I think all that needs to be said has been said, at least by me. If any of you have anything new to contribute, then fine; but to go over any of what what we’ve been talking about already would be going around in circles.
Manxx and LC, you made some good points about not being gullible about overnight success (or however you want to phrase it), and I agree with you. We’re in agreement, so let’s move on.
Let me simply reiterate that I do not take success for granted, especially not overnight riches, nor am I unteachable. This can be seen on the matter which this post originally addressed. On that matter, I responded to Manxx, “As a result of your input, I’ll soften up on my dogmatic “moral of the story” in my post” - and I did, even suggesting that people read Manxx’s input.
One more loose thread: Laughing Charlie, you wrote, “Do you know what proportion ever achieves profit by copying an unbacktested, unforward-tested “system” from a site like Forex Strategies Revealed where the people submitting their systems are other random, unknown, untested, unproven amateurs and there’s no editorial selection-process at all before they’re published there?”
Was that warranted? First of all, I said I was going to test it, not bet my wife and kids on it. I wrote, “I’m getting ready for massive demos of tradeline bounces modeled after Myronn Saremo’s system, which looks excellent:” Advanced strategy #10 (Trend Line Trading Strategy) | Forex Strategies & Systems Revealed.
[/quote]
Secondly, have you examined the strategy? Perhaps you might find it to be sound, as I did.
OK, guys, I’ve done what I could to fess up where I felt it was warranted, and to explain myself as well as I could. Perhaps we could move on from here, either in this post or elsewhere - but as I said, with NEW things to consider, expressed in a way that uplifts, not tears down. I include myself in that last statement.
I wish you all the very best,
Norm