The virus has created a lot of selling opportunities, I mean it is lingering risks and market players tend to overreact to persisting uncertainty. I keep short positions on USDRUB, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CNYUSD with Hotforex, although lot sizes are small but I expect to make substantial returns in medium-term.
As I discussed in my initial post in this thread, I’m more concerned about the economic impact than the so called Pandemic… This is real and the knock on effect from China’s shut down has real implications for Australasian economies.
$140 Billion has been wiped from the ASX200 in the last few trading sessions and the supply chains aren’t quite empty yet… Add 7 weeks shipping delay on top of the Chinese manufacturing shutdown and the shortages will get real and real fast…
Europe and the US maybe insulated… Australia and New Zealand are not…
David Buick - a name I remember from many years ago and a Proper Analyst - has a few words to say in the Nigel Farage show this evening about Indices, PE ratios, Bond Yields, Oil Prices, Gold and recession !
Always worth listening to this Guy ! (Don’t mind Nigel - the sound is muted for him.)
Oh and you’ll get the tail end of an advert before it starts proper.
From Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence
(Note the fourth paragraph, which is on-topic with this thread.)
IS THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY LOSING “THE MANDATE OF HEAVEN?”
Chinese civilization has a history of over 3,000 years; even longer if you credit some literary and archeological sources. That makes it the oldest institution on earth (if you consider it an “institution”), and the oldest continuous civilization on earth by any definition. Of course, China includes many different dynasties and periods of chaos in the transition from one dynasty to another. Most recently, China endured a “warlord period” in the 1920s and a Japanese invasion in the 1930s and 1940s in its transition from the Qing Dynasty to the new Peasant Dynasty led by the Communist Party of China.
Through these dynasties and transitions, certain features have endured. One is the philosophy of Confucianism (or, alternatively, Taoism). Another is rule by experts, (the so-called “Mandarins”). And, the last and most important is the “Mandate of Heaven.” The Mandate of Heaven is a shared intangible sense that the Emperor is favored by Heaven and therefore worthy of respect and obedience. The problem with the Mandate is that it can be withdrawn just as easily as it is bestowed.
When an Emperor (including a Communist Party Chairman) acts unjustly or incompetently or in a way that causes serious harm to the people, the Mandate can disappear to be replaced by protests and rebellion until the Emperor or his dynasty falls. According to THIS ARTICLE, the loss of the Mandate is a real danger for Chairman Xi Jinping today. This is due to Xi’s mishandling of coronavirus in the early stages and the economic consequences of that mishandling.
Indications are that the negative economic impact of coronavirus, in part due to Xi’s mishandling, is far greater than the Chinese government admits. Chinese passenger car sales fell 80% in February. Over 55% of all Chinese small-and-medium sized enterprises remained closed as of March 2. The China Caixin services purchasing managers’ index (considered more reliable than government statistics) fell from 51.8 to 26.5 in the month of January (anything under 50 indicates a recession). Local governments around China are reporting that they are “back to work” but local reports show that they are leaving lights and air conditioning on in offices to give the impression of working, but the offices are empty. The government officials are still home. This tactic is designed to fool Beijing, which estimates office productivity by power consumption.
These are just a few of the metrics that either tell a story of economic collapse or are being massaged and faked to keep the collapse story from getting out.
To those who have watched China since 1949, the Communist Party may seem like a permanent fixture. But, those with a longer view of Chinese history know that the ability to rule depends on the Mandate of Heaven and the Mandate can disappear overnight.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
Editor, Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence
(re-posted, courtesy of Jim Rickards’ Strategic Intelligence, and Paradigm Press)
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Yes, I am hearing this as well from Australian Management staff based in Asia… It’s not good…at all.
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We have a Disneyland Paris holiday booked…not sure we want to go tbh
Kind of hoping the decision is taken out of our hands.
Was planning to go to The Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne this weekend, they have already isolated 2 team members from Haas and 1 from McLaren that flew into Melbourne on Tuesday…
Drivers are declining media duties, so it’s not looking good, a lot of noise about possibly cancelling the event altogether… Won’t happen… to much money involved for too many powerful people…
I think with so many race fans flocking from all corners of the globe… I’ll give it a miss and watch it on the Television… I’m not going to tempt fate…
Hiv, ebola and now the corona virus. Thins on this earth are getting worse by the day. It is only a matter of time before some virus wipes out more than half of the earths population. Lets all be cautions, I have watched videos of how people die with corona virus and it was heartbreaking. You just drop and thats it for you.
The government will always lie to keep the world from panicking, thhey are very good at it. I am sure that the number of people that have died from the corona virus is more than what we are being told. Corona is spreading fast. Every one better be prepared, enjoy your life for it may be your last moments on this earth.
The World Health Organization has just declared that …
THE CHINESE BAT VIRUS
is now a worldwide pandemic
I feel really sorry for china. Those videos on the web are heartbreaking. where did this corona virus come from anyway? Did it really come from the food eaten in china as the rumors have it. I am puzzled. Maybe it id but there is no way to tell for sure. China better stop eating those weird foodd though, it is costing us our lives.
Am I the only one who thinks that the world is ending or what. Disaster after disaster keeps on taking place. i really dont know where we are headed but it is not going to be better. The corona virus is probably stronger than the other disease that we have come across so far. People are dying like sheep. I hope it is taken care off soon enough. I want peace in my mind.
I was watching CNN news and there happened to be a guy in a live stream from some place i did not pay attention to. He was blaming China for creating the corona virus by eating bats. Whether it came from the bats or not, no one really knows. I found it very funny because he was damn serious. Either way, china should mind what it eats. Not everything that can be eaten should be eaten.
There’s nothing wrong with eating things that are different to what you do in your culture. The problem is the black market where things are unregulated and uncontrolled. Who knows how that bat died and how it’s been kept.
Salmonella can make you very sick and even die, but we don’t question that you should eat chicken…
McLaren Formula One have just pulled out of the Australian Grand Prix due to a Team Member being diagnosed with the COVID-19 Virus… 3 Haas F1 Team personnel are also awaiting test results…
I’d say this will cascade into a full cancellation of the first F1 Race of the 2020 season…
Also shows just how this “Pandemic” is bring world Industry, Travel and Sports to its knees…
The hits just keep on coming…
This situation leads to huge restrictions and difficulties, some states close the borders, some goods are in deficit, in my opinion it is more like some kind of madness, which leads to economic and political consequences. I hope that everything will get better soon, I would not like it to continue.
The Virus and the Australian Economy
This speech was given in Sydney, by the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia,
on March 11. It was published by the BIS on their website, which is where I found it.
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Corona virus comes from China, but why is it now renamed Covid-19 ??? That is the misery of the Chinese leadership >>> China wanted to change its name to Covid-19, because they wanted the whole world to forget that the Chinese virus originated from China.
after that, the Chinese side also blamed the consequences on the world. China is Asia’s craziest bastard.
all because of China’s greed to monopolize the world. China is always crazy