Latest CFTC Release Dated May 13, 2008:
Discuss Trader Sentiment and Positioning at the DailyFX Forum
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over the last 52 weeks. A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. The last 4 weeks of the COT Index are shown because it is just as important to know where the index is coming from. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
[B]US Dollar Index: [/B][B]The 52 week COT index is at 92 and the 13 week index is at 92. With the indexes remaining very close to extreme territory for multiple weeks now, USD weakness is likely.[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Bearish[/B]
[B]EUR: [/B][B]The 52 and 13 week indexes are at 14 and 17 after being at 4 and 8 last week. A bearish extreme has been realized and the Euro should continue to gain in the next few weeks.[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]GBP[/B]: GBP positioning is similar to Euro positioning. [B]The 52 and 13 week indexes are both at 2 and 8 after being at 0 last week. Both indexes have indicated a bearish extreme, indicating that the GBP is forming an important low.[/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]CHF:[/B] [B]The readings are at 24 and 0 for the 52 and 13 week indexes. The 13 week index has been at 0 for two weeks now (last time the index was at 0 was when the USDCHF topped at 1.1594). A turn towards CHF strength is likely this week. Risk has shifted to the upside (towards CHF strength).[/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]JPY: [/B] [B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 55 and 0 now. The 13 week index has hit 0 twice in the last 4 weeks now, suggesting that the JPY will begin gaining again soon. [/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
[B]CAD: [/B][B]The 25 and 50 week COT indexes are at 41 and 67. Neither index indicates potential for a bullish or bearish extreme do the trend towards CAD strength should continue. [/B][B][/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Neutral[/B]
[B]AUD:[/B] [B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 78 and 75. Neither index indicates potential for a bullish or bearish extreme do the trend towards AUD strength should continue.[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Neutral[/B]
[B]NZD:[/B] [B]The 52 and 13 week COT indexes are at 2 and 0. Readings have been low for weeks now, which is suggestive of a bearish sentiment extreme and reversal opportunity. [/B]
[B][/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Implications: [/B][B]Bullish[/B]
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