Ohhh, I forgot to say - but I hope this is obvious:) - if something is not clear, please ask and I’ll try to explain!
Another great market is the New Zealand Dollar. Similarly to OJ it was mentioned last week, but the opportunity is still there.
COT Change (52W) / C – 12%, LS – 13%, SS – 8% /
COT Index (3yrs lookback) / C – 91%, LS – 12%, SS – 5% /
COT change signals to me don’t seem to be as effective, thus I wish not to spend time on it’s analysis now. Changes were higher than usual, but I’d not take into any serious consideration. The COT extreme on the other hand is BEAUTIFUL! We have approached ALL TIME cot extreme levels (all time = traders have never held so many contracts net long/net short in their entire cot history)
The signal is clear and the history shows us the NZD has reacted pretty well to them. I’s say it is an unquestionable BUY!
Let’s move on to the Euro, where I have found an All Time cot extreme signal in Small Speculators poisitons.
COT Extreme / SS – All Time /
COT Index (3yrs lookback) / C – 89%, LS – 18%, SS – 0% /
The cot extreme is present in the market, but would this result in a bottom any time soon? Judging by the way these all time extremes became larger and larger it is hard to tell when we are going to reach the end of the decline.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C and LS – All Time /
COT Index (5yrs lookback) / C – 100%, LS – 2%, SS – 0% /
We have reached a bullish cot extreme, again a level that we’ve never seen before. I don’t think it is an “easy” trade as OJ or NZD (those are pretty clear), but it does give us a warning that the decline may be over soon.
Hi guys,
I thought I’ll leave it for now, but I’m looking forward to your comments. I will try to fetch some time tomorrow to have a deeper look at your cot analysis and see if there is anything to comment on.
Feel free to request analysis on any market you are interested in – ok, within reasonable limits of course! 
All the best,
Dunstan
I wanted to add something for your understanging about me: I don’t like to spend too much time on markets where the situation is not obvious, where I don’t see a good R/R opportunity. This is why I’m open to all markets, cause the higher the number, the larger the chances that there will be one or two where you have a good trading opportunity. So to sum up my today’s analyis, I’d say that I would only be considering trades in NZD and OJ for now - that’s the reason I started with these markets:) The cot report on these markets seem to be giving very good signals that look reliable. Why waist your time with markets where the situation is not as sure? I want the the analysis to be LOUD and CLEAR, without any hesitation about what to do.
All the best,
Dunstan
Nice work Dunstan, that will keep us reading for a while, many thks
I agree with Peter, nice job! Although I’d be careful with the SS signals. The name itself is somewhat confusing as not all of them are speculators. Some people tend to mistake them for retailers. Every entity (regardless classification) falls into the Nonreportable category which does not meet the minimum reporting levels. Therefore the group is so diverse that I question the validity of NRNP extremes. Just my opinion though.
Hi Dunstan,
First of all thanks for the analysis and sharing your subscription results.
Just to make sure: here no one expects exact entry points from you. If you get critic for that, well I can only say this is not the technical arena and if someone does not like it the way it is then they should remember it is not compulsory to read the thread. Everyone is welcome but we do not need negative force here. Some people spamed here earlier, if it was annoying I contacted support and “the issue was solved”
It is also good that you concentrate more on the issues where you have a different opinion. It is good sometimes to say something positve if you like a post in the thread but for sure the negative opinions are the ones which will take us further in our journey. Everyone knows it here so just say your opinion without fear.
I liked your orange juice analysis, unfortunately I cannot buy that product so I stay out of it. Also good that you discuss COT as it goes sometimes way too much in the background. That makes me happy.
As I have seen it in your thread and here, you mostly concentrate on net positions. As net positions change over time we basically analyse 6 different COT indicators. Do you do anything else besides net positions? I see on one chart you show a 5Y COT index but mostly you go with net positions.
Have a nice afternoon,
FE
Finally! I managed to get the formula of the Commercial and Large Trader proxy! Okay, I have it programmed. Basically it is the closest you can get to have a COT report-like indicator for stocks.
It’d be great if you showed an example. I do like your idea of using COT 6 months index for hopping on trends and 3 years for picking up tops and bottoms. If I’m correct up to this point, we’ve seen you picking tops and bottoms but not going with the flow. Correct me if I’m wrong. Moreover I would like to know which signals you’d be looking out for , for hopping on trends, and in which range should they be at. I’ll get it all, with an example. No worries
Hi Rookie,
please check the table of contents. We have discussed with Philip the issue. It is the 1 minute commodity trader idea. Of course BB can describe it too, but why should he start long discussion when it is already covered. You can actually do the whole process on Timingcharts.com perfect. If BB has another idea then he might share it.
BB,
I do not know the indicator and never used it. If you are so enthusiastic about it then I am too as it has to be something good for us! Show some examples or analysis if you can.
FE
I’m testing it atm, so far, I’m not impressed.
We have got price premium on WTI and Brent Crude OIL. Might be the sign of a possible reversal?
I’d like to know more about that. Very intriguing.
Mike, clear up your inbox so I can reply to you
Hi guys,
I liked from the beginning BBs idea about making a special task during the week besides our routine work. I made every week some historical analysis. This week I changed that and rather invested the time to add an extra product to my COT database.
Rookie made his analysis about AUD on the weekend and concluded there is no extreme. Some weeks ago I said I am pretty bullish on NZD as the commercial net positions reached a positive reading which is already strange. So I decided to make an analysis on AUD’s little brother, the Kiwi. Dunstan was faster though with a couple of hours and analyzed it. I still find it important to show you the charts as Dunstan concentrates mostly on net positions so you might find interesting the five other charts.
Conclusion: I do not even have to write special analysis to the charts because Dunstan already said a lot. So I would only like to remind you that the COT reading is based on the contracts vs. USD. As we know USD is very strong so there is a very bullish signal from COT for NZD but in case you would like to trade it, I rather suggest other currencies. I entered multiple NZD trades weeks ago and I have to tell you, no matter how the days are going the fix carry trade is nice to see every day. Almost all trades are in a large positive standing so it might be difficult to decide if it is still very good to jump in but everyone has his own technical indicator for entries to decide that. If not, there is the COT index to jump in the trend (lately discussed it a lot). I do not know if NZD is strong these days or not, I only know that there are many weaker currencies out there. I also do not forget how vulnerable comdolls are for risk off sentiment so a protective SL is always there.
Have a nice evening,
FE
Hey guys.
Monday’s results.
JPY : +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
USD: +5 -1 1///+2 -0 1
CAD: +4 -1 2///+3 -1 1
NZD: +3 -2 2///+2 -2 1
GBP: +3 -3 1///+1 -1 1
AUD: +0 -5 2///+0 -3 2
EUR: +0 -5 2///+0 -2 1
CHF: +0 -5 2///+0 -2 1
Majors took it, barely. +1
1240 GMT
Mike
Dunstans analysis showed buy for NZDUSD which was also in line with FE’s analysis on the pair.
If you look at weekly chart of NZDUSD, the pair has always been in uptrend - somewhat. But what has gotten my attention is that on weekly chart how the pair tested ascending support line, to top it all from technical point of view we have RSI oversold reading on weekly chart, which is unusual. And look at that volume. This could well be commercials getting ready for a round of sell off or in other words rally. Interesting.
And I have seen gold upturn BB, again gold is testing weekly support. What I have been noticing is that, COT signal usually comes together with major S&R levels.
Hi Team,
As Philip is in his wintersleep phase before his vacation, I thought there has to be something special out there to wake him up and make him more active.
Shorting the S&P 500 certainly has to qualify and get an answer from him 
Do not expect very special and long analysis. I always pay attention and try to learn from Peter. I found it amazing when he compared Russell 2000 with S&P 500 and discussed the whole theory. Then with some generals and troops out there he discussed with us the A/D Line.
I checked all three charts (S&P, Russell and A/D Line) and this gives me the conclusion that S&P is most likely to fall. I do not know when but based on the 50 day cycle on S&P (I read about it) it should have some kind of a bottom too, in the first half of December.
I am already in, check the chart and wish me good luck,
FE
EDIT: if you do not know what to look on the charts or the theory behind the divergences, please look after it in the thread somewhere. It was a long discussion. You can also search somewhere how Russell leads S&P or what the A/D Line tells us.
I like the trade FE! Good luck with, that