I’m in BB. Can’t be missing out on free webinar or seminars :). Show me an example after all I’ve got all of your database so database wise I’m all set!
and on Murphys book, you may want to give it a second chance. At at least the last few chapters. Lots of useful info VIX, AD lines and such…
Hey FE,
I agree. Peters posts are a true gem. It takes me a while to grasp the whole thing at one go. Maybe I’m slow 
but I’m getting better at it. I’m sure he’ll put a better explanation later but from what I’ve understood NYSE AD - NYAD is used as a leading indicator for S&P. See how he’s spotted divergence on NYAD. Well the divergence in NYAD signals that there’s going to be a pullback on S&P. Its a bearish signal. But I’m assuming its a correction since Russells 2000 reached new highs confirming S&P rally.
And on commodities, I think its good to have a bit of such info. Well we’ve got an insider Philip 
Yes Philip, the shale gas aspect is one of the main drivers at present. It’s unlikely that OPEC will agree on anything especially lowering of production it can be a hard pill to swallow when your income is falling due to lower prices and then someone tells you to sell even less.
It’s not only the US that Shale Gas is becoming more prominent - this from the BBC this morning:
BBC News - Shale gas: Ineos to invest £640m in UK exploration
I liked this analysis from The Guardian back 4 weeks ago.
Low oil price means high anxiety for Opec as US flexes its muscles | Business | The Guardian
Hi BB,
we are doing COT analysis with You, Rookie and myself. I would suggest that everyone is doing it for his own products as we do anyway a COT Index in our databse.
Hi Philip,
thanks for the interesting explanation. If you have such information, you can always share it here
FE
FE,
There are many ways to read A/D, this is an article on one way.
MailBag: What are the Best Ways to View Advance-Decline Data? - Articles - StockCharts.com
Sometimes it’s good to think of the ‘market’ as a whole, especially if taking a longer term view. So looking at NYSE A/D is common as is looking at SPX Advance Declines.
My own, very personal view, is that there is an increased chance of a pull back, maybe not as large as the last one, in the next week or so. I also feel the next couple of days will shed more light.
The Advance/declines on the S&P are my own favourite.
Nice answer here by Chris on the NYSE.
Okay, here’s this week’s historical study. Well, it is not exactly ‘historical’ as it stretches back to 2012. I’m planning to include the ‘1 minute Commodity Trader’ method into my trading arsenal, so I’m re-checking it’s effectiveness in various markets. My first victim is Silver because the trends are pretty clear and tends to last long.
We are in a downtrend (from 2012), so here are the sell signals (100% accurate!)
(The green indicator is ProGo Professional)
[B]Okay guys, here are the numbers to use for each commodity class[/B]
Currencies - 26 weeks
Metals - 26 weeks
Meats - 13 weeks
Softs - 13 weeks
Cotton - 26 weeks
Grains - 26 weeks
Dollar Index - 13 weeks
Bonds - 52 weeks
Stocks - 13 weeks
Energies - 13 weeks
Obviously, weeks means the look-back period for the COT Index. I won’t tell you what to analyze, you are free to choose.
Hey guys.
Thursday’s results.
CAD: +6 -0 1///+5 -0 0
NZD: +5 -0 2///+5 -0 0
AUD: +5 -1 1///+5 -0 0
GBP: +3 -3 1///+0 -3 0
EUR: +1 -3 3///+0 -3 0
USD: +1 -4 2///+0 -3 0
CHF: +0 -4 3///+0 -3 0
JPY : +0 -6 1///+0 -3 0
Comms took it. +15
The AUD was the only Comm with a down day, against CAD.
0030 GMT
Mike
Hi Peter,
do you have an explanation why gold and silver is rising very nicely at the same time with S&P? I do not remember the part in the discussion in which case are they rising at the same time. My metal trades are boosted with this result but the S&P does not make me too happy on the other side
I am waiting of course answer from anyone who has an opinion. Mike, it seems like you can post tomorrow that it was a comdoll day
FE
QE in Europe, or it’s possibility, or the talk of it’s possibility is driving up the Europeans, S&P futures tracking those at the moment.
So let’s see what the US thinks about all this shortly
Remember, QE, money printing, more money in the system, more money = more spending = business very happy = investors want piece of that happiness, so up go stocks, so up goes their respective indexes.
(lol - all summed up in one sentence)
Hmmm… seems the US traders were not that terribly impressed with all the excitement. Still, the record books say another new high for the S&P.
Some PA guys are big into candlestick formations etc, there is a certain validity to that but for me only when there is a story to tell - a reason, a sense.
Today’s candle on the S&P tells a story, really the difference in a vast ocean of water.
FE, Gold, aha - this is intermarket at it’s most difficult, there are two very strong guys playing arm wrestling, one will win, one will lose - presumably the strongest reigns.
Gold:
USDX:
[U]Crude Oil[/U]
Net positions are continuing their direction to extreme levels (just like COT Index) but what got my attention is the decreasing OI and the last three green candles which are not included in the report. If there is no large change coming in the last 26 minutes of the market then Crude oil celebrates its’ first 3 up days in a row since the start of the downtrend in June.
[U]RUB[/U]
SIGNAL! SIGNAL! SIGNAL! I am already in the trade so I did my best to take away my emotions. The hard fact is still: it is a SINGAL! It does not matter how I glue my eyes to the charts I just see a signal. Net positions turned back in the last 3 weeks, COT Index also left the extreme and Commercials are only increasing their short, longs not anymore. The price chart also confirms my findings. The uptrend stopped and cannot make new highs. It is your money of course to decide if you enter the trade but the reason why we do all this is to remain our colleagues if there is something. It is the rare occasion when there is actually a “big something”.
[U]JPY[/U]
Everything is normal from the COT perspective. I do not know what the Japanese would say about their economic situation.
[U]Soybean[/U]
Re-entry possibility! Ok guys many of you were talking about the 1 minute Commodity Trader System this week. You can try it live on Soybean. There was a little retracement and now it might be a re-entry possibility. Willco is heading back to give soon a buy singal.
[U]NZD[/U]
Nothing special. The week was a bit bumpy for NZD and Fonterra might cause some bumps on the road. Altogether in “Weakness-ville” NZD still looks like one of the best options.
BB please share with us with you see on Wheat. It looks interesting from the chart.
Ok guys, these were the five markets I cover on a weekly basis. In the next post I will present my new product to extend my database. IMO we work here a lot and often we have to write “nothing special” or “no signal”. Well this time there is action and if you want to make pips you might find some opportunities out there!
FE
I have to say the BB method is fast and efficient. Exactly what I like. I tried to get ready with my analysis before the babypips.com maintenance period and it worked good (I am there at the weekend but not as much as usually).
So this time I introduce the EUR, my last currency for a while. From now on Rookie will fill in the holes in the currency business.
EUR
Altogether there is nothing new about the EUR. However I do make a big difference between the EUR and the JPY; the two currencies which are sold across the board. While we are not even close to any extremes with the JPY we cannot really say that for the EUR. Now you shouldn’t worry or close those short EUR trades, I just want to say if you look at the net positions that those extreme levels are not in an unreachable future. And it reminds me what we talked about during the week: do not believe everything you hear about the financial markets. I remember how the banks talk about 1.05 and 1.00 EUR/USD. Sometimes I think they say un purpose wrong forecasts so they can take the money on the misleaded retails traders. My goal would be on EUR/USD more the major support at 1.20.
After all the talk here are the charts for you:
Net Positions
CP/OI and OI
Willco
COT Index
Commercial Movement Index
Well, I did manage the report before maintenance 
And hopefully you like the new EUR charts and database.
Good night guys and girls,
FE
We did discuss how QE in Europe could have a possible effect on the US stocks. Today it showed us a preview, although it does seem that SPX needs a bit of rest after going up so much quickly.
On RUB, may be buying it against EUR or JPY would be better?
Hi Philip,
I agree you with buying it vs. EUR or JPY but I can only trade it vs. USD 
What possibilities do you have to buy it? In which trades are you in?
FE
Hey guys!
Since last week I’ve been doing things the BB way. I analyzed AUD last week and this week I’ll be adding pound onto my database.
But before we get into it I just wanted to give a quick summary on AUD, last week I concluded that there wasn’t anything significant :
Specs net shorts and commercials net longs have both seen some decline. But nothing too drastic. There has been some decline in OI as well. COT index is far from extremes currently , commercials at 78 - specs at 23. Commercials 6 month COT index is however at 97, specs at 1. How should I interpret this ? I remember BB mentioning how he’d use 6 month COT index to ride trends and COT 3,4 years index for picking up tops and bottoms.
Before we reach any conclusion thought I’d attach a chart of AUDUSD
(weekly chart)
(daily chart)
Comparing the two, if you look at price action especially the dailies you’d notice that bulls have been skeptical I’m not sure if we have found a bottom just yet (COT Index in line), in short I think itd be safe to assume that bulls and the bears have been equal almost since the absence of dollar rally. The pair had been trading in a range both on daily and weekly TFs. The weekly S&R lines have been there since a year ago.
I’m not sure how to make of this bullish COT 6 months signal. Anyone ?
Lets move on to pound.
OI has increased a bit so does commercials net longs while specs have increased their net shorts.
We haven’t reached extreme COT readings yet.
Increased by 5 points from previous readings.
Commercials longs takes up 59% and shorts 37% of total OI.
Willco is at 71 currently. Assuming that 90-100 is a buy signal. We haven’t reached a viable signal just yet.
Well my conclusion would be to go with the flow - the trend since I see no indication of bottom just yet. However once again
commercials 6 month COT index is 100, specs at 0. Again I’m not sure how to make of this. So I resorted back to my good old GBPUSD daily and weekly charts. As it turns out , too bad how could I have missed out on this. Kidding guys. GBPUSD has been on a downtrend, unlike AUDUSD the trend has been consistent both on weekly and daily. Getting back to what BB has said about using COT 6 months signal to ride trends. I’m a little confused here guys. So commercials COT 6 months index says 100 , which if I’m not wrong is a buy signal. Hows that going with the current trend that we have on GBPUSD - downtrend ? I don’t understand the reasoning.
Hi Rookie,
I can repeat myself, please check our 1 minute Commodity Trader link in this thread and you will understand everything! The interpretation of the COT Index signal is easy. You got a buy signal from the Commercials (great that you have seen it BTW!), but it has to be in line with the trend (26 SMA) because we only jump into trends with the 26 week COT Index signals. Conclusion: the trend and COT Index signal shows contradiction so you do not do anything. The trend is down so we would only look for sell signals currently.
I hope it helps,
FE
Ok, I see you see the problem here yourself. You shouldn’t even ask because you answered it You only look for entry signal in the direction of the trend and you share those signal with us. But it turns out you are in a contradiction so it means we do not do anything now,
You analysis are a lot better this week! It is only your second week with this kind of analysis but I see the improvement.
FE
Thanks FE!
I was trying to look for the system but with no luck - I’ll try once more should be good by next weekends. I did get the screenshot of your post however. So I shouldn’t be contradicting myself, and ask a question only to answer it myself later without even realizing.
I agree on EURUSD. I think there’s going to be a buy opportunity at around 1.2040. As for taking the short side, I think there’re better probability setups besides EURUSD.
