Ok, I like that rule. But I like even more your new picture. I am not sure what it is but it looks cool.
I guess you never played the Mass Effect Trilogy then 
Heās too old to play BB. Donāt you think FE
Hey guys.
If you arenāt aware already SNB cut its LIBOR rates down to 0.25% from 0.75 with the aim of taking the rate into negative territory.
The crisis in Russia, oil price decline and uncertainty in the global financial market is calling investors off back to the safe havens CHF and JPY.
Iām assuming the move was to defend the peg 1.20 should this level hold the recent CHF gain should be faded and not to mention commercials are getting close to extreme levels - bullish sign from commercials 3 year COT index - so Iām expecting EUR to rally in the near future or at least some nice run up - correction. I would be wary of stop hunters though - the banks if weāre really reaching a bottom on EURUSD.
Right guys. These days I only play with candlesticks. Or almost only.
Rookie, I agree with what you wrote on EUR. I like that thinking. Everyone got the message to sell the EUR so it has to actually rise! However tight SL, just in case once in the history we would be wrong.
FE
Hey guys.
Thursdayās results.
NZD: +7 -0 0///+5 -0 0
GBP: +6 -1 0///+2 -1 0
AUD: +5 -2 0///+4 -1 0
CAD: +4 -3 0///+4 -1 0
USD: +3 -4 0///+0 -3 0
JPY : +2 -5 0///+0 -3 0
EUR: +1 -6 0///+0 -3 0
CHF: +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Comm day. +11
Hey guys.
This weeks results.
USD: +837 ///+143
NZD: +725 ///+628
CAD: +602 ///+523
GBP: +78 ///-186
AUD: -67 ///+109
JPY : -149 ///-167
CHF: -896 ///-357
EUR: -1130 ///-693
Comms made +1260 against the Majors.
Hi everyone,
Here is my COT analysis for the week.
Silver
The COT Report tells us that there was no reversal but most likely a retracement. Both price and net positions started falling. The COT Movement Index shows a sell signal, the 6 months COT index is moving towards a sell signal but it is not there yet.
Crude oil
Bang! Now here is something to look for! First of all we havenāt seen a week since a long time when Crude actually closed above the weekly open price. There is no strong support zone but it stopped the falling. I do not say it is a complete reversal but I agree with Philip that a larger retracement is in the cards, what we might even play on the long side. There are more reasons for this. The net positions turned from the low reading and headed up. Besides that, I started using the strong stockās performance to see the investorās sentiment if it is in line with the COT findings. Peter showed me that we took a bad trade with BB, with not taking the stock sector in consideration. Now I checked $XOI for short term sentiment and it is definitely bullish. I attach it also.
Soybean
The small uptrend stopped and there is indecision in the market at the moment.
JPY
Just before reaching the 3 years net position extreme and the 3 years COT Index extreme the Yen turned back. This suggests that behind the recent Yen strength is not only the risk off sentiment but the near to extreme position reading. It will not be easy to push the Yen upward in the following weeks.
RUB
The COT Report has not much value when evaluating the Ruble. Looking at chart action, the last week had probably one of the largest (if not the largest) Ruble movement in the history. As half of the weekās action is not included in the report I have nothing to analyze here.
EUR
One of the most interesting currencies out there. Although it has last from itās value this week, economic data is turning up and I still think our original 1.2000 support zone has a good chance to hold.
NZD
Not much has changes since last week. The NZD is taking a break at the extreme readings. Looking at the charts the message is clear: do not mess with the NZD! It has a about a draw with USD, GBP and CAD and was beating up the others. We will see what Mikeās stats bring for the week but I am quite sure NZD has a top place on it. Update: before uploading my stats I already see Mike his stats his stats on the thread. Thanks Mike! I see NZD finished second. I will be looking from this point for the upside vs. weaker currencies. NZD does have a strong story now.
Crude Net Positions
$XOI Oil Index
FE
[B]Dear BB, Mike, Peter, Philip and Rookie[/B] (alphabetical order because of democracy),
[B]Some people celebrate Christmas and some do not. It depends where in the world you are and who you are. Regardless of everything I wish to all of you Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!
I wanted to say thanks for all of you the great work. I took a little time now to see how the thread developed itself from 20.05.2014. until this point and I only feel being proud of this team and feel happy to be a member of it. There are a very few threads where the team sticks together for such a long time and work so closely together. We are there, help each other and get to the next step together.
We work hard, but we also learn a lot. It is not easy sometimes but we did some great steps. In the next year we will make further steps together and help each other on the way.
[/B]
I made my wishes a couple of days too early because from tomorrow until the end of next week please do not expect much work from me. I will be reading the thread, maybe even answer because I am quite addicted to it, but I do not plan to follow the most likely not liquid markets, charts and fundamentals. I want to have 1 week at least without much forex.
[B]All the best and keep up your great work,
FE[/B]
FE,
Post no. 2428 - this is market analysis at itās best, you are using what the US govt force companies engaged in the oil business to do, they are, with great reluctance, having to report their activities in the futures market via the COT report.
Then combined with that you are using the regulations attached to a stock exchange to analyse the activities of investors active in companiesā shares who are involved in the oil business.
Later, you will probably be including the activities of shorter term investors who are active in funds which track the companies involved in the oil business.
This is real insight, real information, real understanding, many thanks.
Hi Mike,
you said once if we need some kind of stats, we should tell you and you shoot it up. I see now some interesting things on the markets. I do not want to make all the analysis when you have done it anyways.
Can you please give me the accumulated stats of the 28 pair? I need all 8 currency pip gains/losses from 1. Dec. until yesterday.
Thanks,
FE
PS: Thanks for the words Peter, you have to remind me later for the shorter term investors activity. It is too early to do that. When I get familier for the normal shares then comes the next step. Is there anything to watch for the currencies?
I can only second [B]FE[/B] here. Iām really glad that I stumbled upon the thread, to get to know you guys and for you accepting me as a member of the team. Iāve learned a lot since my first post here. Itās always constructive to get mixed with like-minded individuals. Well, I just want to say thank you guys and I hope weāll continue our work in 2015 as well!
My COT analysis will come tomorrow.
Funny you should ask, working on that, letās see in the new year.
Happy Christmas you guys, and a peaceful and successful new year.
Well I want to wish us all a merry Christmas and a happy new year. May 2015 be full of pips for us all. Like FE, I will not participate in the thread next week unless there is a noteworthy move. Iām really focusing for the next two quarters on buying USJPY, USDCHF and selling NZDUSD. I wonāt be involved much in other currencies unless GBP steps up. I currently have two positions open; USDJPY and USDCHF for a combined profit of 42 pips. I will hold until after the break most likely.
Since my COT analysis yielded no results I thought I share some updates on oil. Earlier this week Saudi Arabia, one of the biggest oil producers in the world, released its budget for the next fiscal year. It is the first budget in 45 years that posts a deficit.
Despite that, Saudi Minister of Finance said that his country will not lower production even if oil production reaches $30. This suggests that the country is looking to aggressively challenge Shale oil producers and put them out of business. There strategy is actually showing success but will need time to for the results to come out. Some Shale Oil producers will definitely default on their loans in 2015 as the price of oil is now lower than Shale. This doesnāt mean that Saudi Arabia will win, but it definitely makes it an interesting battle.
It is worth noting that an earlier Gann analysis I shared marked $33 and $14 as possible reversal points for oil. My expectation for the commodity in 2015 is to see price stabilize for a little, rally before falling again. My plan for 2015 is to sit out the rally and sell it all the way down to $33.
Good luck with your trading lads.
Hey guys!
Well, for the last about 3 days or so Iāve been very sick. But Iām finally coming out of it now. And I just got caught up on the thread. Yeah, after I just posted the stats for the week, I basically went to bed and didnāt get up for the last 24 straight hours.
I do want to wish you all guys a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year! When I look back at the year, I do realize I (and we also) have come a long way. But also realize there is so much to learn. This is just how it is. Itās a tough market. But we all are learning so much. Itās about progression. Just think where we will be in say 5 yrs from now. Just that much more smarter about it all. And, more than anything, itās just fun and exciting! So my wish is that we will continue on with learning from each other, all the while becoming more successful in our business endeavors.
Feā¦I got you. Iāll get these stats out to you soon. This wonāt take long. Iāll compile it and have it out to you in minutes from now.
BTWā¦I just started my 2 week vacation (from work). I will be off till after the holidays. Iām very excited!
It is a shame the market wonāt be flying, but that wonāt stop me from working. It only means more time for me to continue on with my research. If you remember, Iām putting things into perspective and itās taking a lot of time. Very interesting stuff. Itās all about getting ready for next year.
Okā¦Feā¦stats comingā¦
Mike
Stats for Dec.
[B]Week 1[/B]//////////[B]Week 2[/B]///////////[B]Week 3[/B]/////////[B]TOTAL[/B]
CAD +963///////JPY +1685///////USD +837///////////GBP +1119
GBP +758///////CHF +651////////NZD +725///////////NZD +1050
USD +755 //////EUR +585////////CAD +602///////////USD +968
CHF -116 ///////NZD +483////////GBP +78////////////JPY +314
NZD -158 //////GBP +283////////AUD -67//////////////CAD -98
EUR -433 //////USD -624/////////JPY -149/////////////CHF -361
AUD -547 //////AUD -1400///////CHF -896/////////////EUR -978
JPY -1222//////CAD -1663///////EUR -1130///////////AUD -2014
Hey guys!
Here comes the analysis of the COT report for 2014.12.16.
Metals
Copper - Bullish
Gold - Neutral
Silver - Neutral
Palladium - Neutral
Platinum - Neutral
Grains
Wheat - Neutral
Corn - Mixed (more on that below)
Softs
Coffee - Neutral
Cotton - Neutral
Sugar - Bullish
Energies
Crude Oil - Neutral
Gasoline - Neutral
Natural Gas - Bullish
Others
Treasury Bonds - Neutral
VIX Index - Almost bearish
We have 3 bullish signals and 1 mixed signal.
Corn
The chart does not tells us much about the OI. It has been bouncing back-and-forth since 2012. There is no apparent consistency between OI highs and lows and NP extremes.
Thatās what I mean by a mixed signal. Funds are extremely bullish while Commercials are still 10% away from the extreme zone. It is important to note however, that the setup was similar when Cornās price reversed the last time. Despite the fact that Funds were at 93%, the Commercials reached 22%.
Nothing to note on Commercial Movement Index.
CP/OI (Willco) flashing a sell signal (0%)
As I noted earlier, Wheat and Corn has a positive relationship. They are moving in perfect harmony since the rall.
Conclusion: Iām waiting for a sell signal from Wheat or a Commercial sell signal.
Well I said I would post on only important story and I just found one. I read a story,this, for currency traders this piece of news should put us on alert as it should signal a fundamental shift.
It puts AUD for me in a bearish trend similar to EUR and JPY. My assessment of the currencies are as follow (they are listed in order of bullishness:
- USD: very bullish. 2) GBP: slightly bullish. 3) CAD: neutral. 4) NZD: slightly bearish. 5) AUD: bearish.6) EUR/CHF: very bearish 7) JPY: Very bearish.
Hi Balazs,
hmmm the analysis are great but the setups are extremely dangerous. After the Nat Gas loss I will be cautious. You wrote Nat Gas us bullish. I believe it will become a good buy at this moment it is only gambling. Last week it seemed good just above the main support zone which was broken so it seems only guessing to see when it turns.
Sugar, yes the support zone holds and looks like it is a good R/R trade.
Corn and Wheat looks the most dangerous to me. Looking at the charts everything comes to my mind except a reversal. Saying that, of course the COT report is there to spot those reversals and as I did not analyse it I do not know what the report says. Maybe you can shoot it up. However the recent rally looks very strong so be careful with that trade!
Good luck,
FE
Hi Philip,
I like your USD, JPY and AUD view because I can agree 
I am very cautious with the EUR. They made nice gains lately and also produced nice data. The question will be if these are retracements or reversals.
FE