There we go : flight to safety- 3 mins ago
Hey guys.
Heads up on the GlobalDairyTrade figures.
https://www.globaldairytrade.info/
Looks like things are looking up for the commodity prices.
Any thoughts?
Ok, so if we look the Copper Gold setup from an intermarket point of view, then actually (if I understand it right) we are looking to short gold as the current situation only has to do with safe haven move and when it is over then gold will be a commodity again and commodities are falling so it will go down with them.
FE
Hi Peter,
looking at the article, if the 1985 level is right for S&P, combining that with the uncertainty of Yen strength in the last couple of hours, we might have found the bottom. As we are not bottom catching people, we can wait some more of course 
Thanks for the article, I will remember the 5% āruleā.
FE
PS: I wrote the article some minutes ago and since that short time S&P is moving nicely up and W/S turned.
What I liked about the article was the comment about āflight to safetyā, there are so many different terms all about such a simple thing - risk on/off.
The numbers may or may not be correct, I didnāt actually read them to be honest.
Your analysis is how I would read Gold. The scenario we have seen will settle, so what I look for are signs of fear abating, if I see that then Iāll close my trades, wait a while and see if the bottom pickers begin to circle.
The signs will be the usual, bond market settling down, small caps being bought (they often circle there early) A/D starting to rise, rise in russell2000, and then into the sector story.
W/S is set on 10yr, thatās where it gave the signal to buy the 10yr back on Fri (using USD/JPY as itās influencer) so letās see when that market is saying to sell, then that will be one of the signs for risk back on.
Which sector lead the fear, which sector shows lessening fear ā¦
Only then some bottom picking
Interestingly, yesterday I was pointing out to another trader a live sell on Nat Gas, at NY open. Price was at 3010, it was on a sloping up trend line having hit third time. The sell signal had various confirmations in Energy, so despite the TA I was saying itās a sell.
Here is that line, which was already on my chart, price stalled there on the 5 and 15min (see the hr1 candle body) - so likely there were some buy orders that got sucked in, couple of hrs later and W/S confirmed the sell - fear was on.
Right now itās giving a buy signal, except for the ma, or more importantly confirmation in XLE, XOI, UNG and XNG - otherwise itās still just bottom picking, signal or no signal.
And lastly, I didnāt mention the SPY.
Here is how it closed this evening, hmmm the sellers didnāt follow on down
Hi BB,
can you make a post how do you update your COT template in the end of the year? What do you delete, what do you still use etc.
Thanks,
FE
Hi everyone,
Here is my COT analysis for the past two weeks.
[U]Silver[/U]
Nothing to report.
[U]Crude oil[/U]
Here is something funny. There is a clear reversal since more weeks at the net extreme positions, but price just keeps falling. I guess we can see here that COT report is not a timing tool and we might be ready for a reversal. Who knows when exactly that will occur. However oil is becoming slowly a free commodity to buy
[U]Soybean[/U]
Here is also something to look for. There might be a breakout to the upside on the TA. The trend has changed a couple of months ago on the daily TF. [B]Peter[/B], which ETF do you suggest do look for? I checked the SOYB from NYSE. It would be nice if you take a look at it. The daily is going up but the weekly is still down. So I am not that sure about it.
[U]JPY[/U]
In this risk off sentiment I guess the whole world is sitting tight and is watching when to jump back to short the yen. Fundamentals have not changed so there might be serious pips to be made with the yen.
[U]RUB[/U]
Very interesting. In a relatively short time from one net positions extreme we almost arrived to the other extreme. So we can expect soon commercials buying again. Wow this whole Ruble story is just very crazy. If you like gambling, well then I can suggest to jump into the Ruble. You do not even need a large position size, you will either get a margin call or make a small fortune.
[U]EUR[/U]
The EUR is very interesting also. Just when the currency started to show some strength across the board then EUR/USD opened with a about 150 pips weekend gap to the downside. There were some progress in economic data IMO but still a 2. QE news came to the surface with potential problems from Greece and this was all enough to cause problems.
[U]NZD[/U]
It is one of the latest strength stories. The dairy price increase (also posted by [B]Mike[/B] today) can give an extra boost for the currency.
FE
Hey guys.
Tuesdayās results.
NZD: +6 -0 1///+4 -0 1
JPY : +6 -0 1///+2 -0 1
USD: +5 -2 0///+2 -1 0
AUD: +4 -3 0///+3 -2 0
EUR: +2 -4 1///+1 -2 0
CHF: +2 -4 1///+1 -2 0
CAD: +1 -6 0///+1 -4 0
GBP: +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Comms edged them out by a little.
Hey Mike,
The pair has been trading in a tight range. According to COT weāve already reached commercials extreme long reading. So I was expecting some kind of a correction before the trend resumes.
If you quickly glanced over NZDUSD daily chart, youād think that despite the fact the weāve seen two consecutive positive reading on GDT Index, kiwi has failed to make higher highs. But notice the tight squeeze ? Iām no expert at reading these type of patterns. But Iām thinking kiwi just might get on its rally mode soon. I donāt know when. But Iād focus on this pattern and see how it develops. I have been going long on NZDUSD short term plays. I guess all it needs is a bit of a push, anything dovish from FOMC minutes of meeting could kick start what weāve been waiting on. Commdolls rally :13:. And vice versa.
But weāll see. Iām not going to try to predict any outcome. Trade what you see is as best as it could get. However buying kiwi at its current levels is going to yield something. 
and your theory major/comm split. Should NZDUSD run up, so does NZD cross pairs if I understood correctly ? In that scenario your plan will play out smoothly. But youāll need to work out the tricky parts - trade management. Keep us updated !
I wonāt delete anything this year. Just keep adding rows.
About Crude Oil: I donāt have any NP extreme on my chart.
Thanks for the answer BB. On Crude, I had a NP extreme not a COT Index extreme. But no signals on any other indicator. Also TA shows nothing.
FE
Hi Team,
I entered a 4:1 R/R ratio trade, I have no idea if it wins or not but thought I share it. Not because of the winning part, more if we can have a discussion on the thought process from which we can learn.
I entered XAU/USD on the short side. Here is how I made my decision:
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BB started a discussion yesterday, Peter explained great the double role of gold, and we came to the conclusion that it is most likely the risk off currency sentiment working on gold and not the commodity role.
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Commodities are still falling based on the trends and JPY is very weak and it seems like to risk off move has come to an end or at least has a break. The JPY does not gain anymore on the currencies so risk on might come back soon which is bad for gold. These arguments were the starting points to make my trade.
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If gold loses itās risk off role and moves back to itās commodity role, then it makes sense to me to think that it will fall. I checked Dr. Copper which is not doing so good, I checked oil which can not gain anything back from the large losses and Nat Gas also do not profit from cold weather. So I thought being a commodity for gold cannot help much.
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I went to look for ETFs. Well the NYSE is not open, Asia might be closed and in Europe I did not find anything that seemed to be a large one. I sticked to āThe Gold Bond Group Ltd.ā from Israel. They have to have money and it is early afternoon there so they I guess are calmed down and know what they do. Gold made some gain in the last hour on their ETF but looking at the whole day they lost value.
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Last but not least I wanted to see our W/S indicator. It gave a sell signal on the 1H TF.
For me all these factors meant to sell. Correct me guys what I was missing or if I did not consider something. I tried to use technical factors (W/S) with intermarket analysis (ETF, commodity-currency role) and currencies (JPY).
IMO if I started to look now for thousands of indicators, they would only have been arguments to find something on some of the TFs for not taking the trade. In the end I am sitting here and work a lot to find setups which do match with my expectations.
Now I only have to wait and see how it plays out.
FE
Good luck with the trade, although I would wait until Commercials stack up on the short side
You are looking for a rise in the USD to help the trade, that looks very possible coming into NY. A fall in US10yr would def help things along - interestingly W/S (on USD/JPY) is suggesting that possibility.
How would a fall in Bonds help push the Dollar higher? I thought rising Dollar usually results in higher Bond prices.
Context - still in the risk off territory, has been this past 3 days, so if that train continues to roll Bond prices will continue to rise, Yen will continue to rise, USD will be pulled down as a consequence of USD/JPY, and Gold will rise.
Hard to know re the deflation story in EU, although itās no shock - I suspect WTI will continue to influence
If the train has stalled, then it will roll back. Weāll know in about 2 hours or so - some one of those, maybe the S&P will be the leader.
BTW -US 10yr - itās 50sma acted as support in the current hour, XAU/USD itās 50sma acted as support in the current hour, XAU/USD just pierced itās 50sma and retreated in the current hour - all Eastern Time on Oanda, GMT GOLD 50sma acted as support in the current hour.
Just thought it was neat - now those 50smaās will be broken if this train is to reverse
Oh, I see. Then how comes thereās a positive relationship between Stocks and Bonds? Iām having a hard time wrapping my head around it. Bonds are thriving in a risk-off environment, right? I mean they are considered to be safe investment relative to Stocks. If investors are pouring money into the Bond market, then the Stock market should suffer. I guess.