COT Report Analysis - a thread on market sentiment

Just luck, I closed usd/chf long yesterday - no one saw this coming.

All will settle down soon. I’d say there could be more upside yet on chf, changes the dynamics of the risk equation - back to the old days again.

Well I’m actually keen to hear more from you on that, because I actually think this is a superb opportunity to go long USDCHF, its like going back in time and buying the pair at a better price.

Guys I’m hearing a lot of crazy things that brokers are doing as a result of the SNB decision. My advice based on that is not to trade today at all. Even close some of the trades you are happy with.

Yes, its that crazy…

USDCHF is now trade able again, I lost 1,250 pips. But my account survived!!! :smiley:
Now the work begins to make up for those lost pips, I’ll need you guys in the coming weeks.

The gap was a killer. I could also not close it at all. The broker said they did not get any rates from the banks. I think there are huge problems at the market. Things are happening I have never seen.

My NAT GAS trades are closed and I do not see a balance on my account at all. This is very interesting as the NAT GAS trade was in a nice win but it is not shown at all. I contact my broker (one of the largest) and they do not answer to me right away which never happened.

FE

That’s why I call them bookies.

MT4 apparently is wiping accounts,FE Nat Gas should have remained unaffected - no spikes there that I can see - so if you are trading on mt4 the problem is there, nat gas trading at 3280, similar to themt4 chart.

BTW the wipe probably caused by nice little server side script - always protect the broker is the motto.

Philip, nasty loss on usd/chf

Well I talked about crazy things happening, one of them were that brokers closed off trades to retail traders, whether they were CHF or otherwise.
I’d recommend you take a picture of your account history while you have it to show them the trades you were in when the dust settles. Unfortunately I will have to tell you that there is no use calling the broker, they are in as much trouble as you are.

Alpari are doing great for me though and they are functioning as normal now (with the exception of blocking CHF trades for 3-4 hours.)

I heard the same about the wipe outs. Thats why I think its better to close the trades yourself and protect your capital.

To be honest though I think it isn’t that bad. Millions of people were probably wiped out today. The average profit I make on winners using my system is slightly more than 300 pips. So not too bad given the market technically crashed while I’m in it.

Hi Philip,

I do not know what the hell is going on and where you get your information but they closed all my trades, I do not see any balance and I am not allowed to trade. Since that time my trades go into my direction but I am not allowed to open any trades.

You have luck with Alpari at least.

FE

Good job Philip.

I’ve learned a lot of lessons. (frankly I don’t even want to talk about it)
It’s all stuff I do know, but, now, after experiencing it, maybe it will stick.

I think this is a game changer, what the CHF has done. The sentiment has changed. And as I like to see the big picture, I would like it if we could talk about this. About what has changed, and who’s gonna be effected.
The CHF is a Major. So does that mean the Majors will be more weighty, than the Comms?
The CHF is a safe haven currency. Will they take over more than the JPY, when risk off?
How will they affect the USD? Put more downward pressure on the USD?
How much of a divergence to the EUR?

I just would like to converse about it, watch the progression of the CHF, and hopefully get in on the flow of them while it’s still early in the year.

But, first of all, do you guys think this is a game changer?

Mike

What’s the name of your broker?
Can you see your balance? Does it calculate your equity after closing the trades?
Can you see your account history?
Do you have the option to withdraw your money?

Thanks Philip, I get back to you pm.

The market doesn’t like guessing, it likes surprises even less.

Here is the best analysis that I’ve seen regarding SNB

BBC News - Why the Swiss franc can’t escape being a safe haven

A good article. But I wonder how far this is going to go. Franc surge. On the news Swiss shares tumbled 14% - banks were among the biggest losers with UBS and Credit Suisse both down by 14 percent. This move will surely present challenges - in terms of export and for the overall economy.

Fundamentally I think we should pay more attention to the upcoming key economic datas. On its safe haven status CHF still got AAA credit ratings - but SNB move where they suddenly decided not to depend the peg when they were talking months how they were going to take all necessary measures to defend the peg puts SNB credibility at risk. It’s going to be a wait and see game from now on.

Swiss central bank shocks markets with currency ‘tsunami’ | Reuters

Okay, I just got home and saw the craziness :slight_smile: I was flat fortunately.

Well we haven’t heard from Mike, but I think he should have come out the best…he was long AUD if I remember correctly.

Hey guys.
Thursday’s results.

CHF: +7 -0 0///+3 -0 0
NZD: +6 -1 0///+4 -1 0
JPY : +5 -2 0///+2 -1 0
AUD: +4 -3 0///+3 -2 0
USD: +3 -4 0///+1 -2 0
CAD: +2 -5 0///+2 -3 0
GBP: +1 -6 0///+0 -3 0
EUR: +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0

Comms took it by a little bit.

0130 GMT


BTW…my account crashed. Don’t want to talk about it.
(I did mention that before)

Hey guys.
Mike.

Here’s a good one SNB Bombshell: The Aftermath – Thoughts From 15 Major Banks | ForexLive

I think its your AUDCHF that took the whole thing down. I was short on EURJPY. It did turn out to my favor. It could have been the other way around, easily. Before this it never occurred to me how risky the market can be. How a single news can have such a drastic effect. I’m going remind myself every single day ‘calculate your risk for every trade you place’ you never know whats going to happen.

I’ve come to realize the seriousness of the situation as I was reading many articles on yesterdays CHF surge. Although, I was lucky enough to get past this event there’s no guarantee that this won’t happen in the future.

I read headlines on FXCM and IG are in deep trouble - stating that clients owed them millions. Then I got on FF, there was a thread dedicated to yesterdays event. How some people had SLs - its just that they were a little far off - when there was no quote coming in from big banks - no one was willing to take the other side of the trade - even with a SL if it wasn’t strategically placed you’re doomed regardless. Brokers recovering negative accounts is a whole different story. But it just got me thinking. I’m not experienced enough in the market to say ‘yeah I’ve seen happening it’ll all come back to where it was’ so I’m a little concerned. What do you guys think ?

I agree with you. I think everyone of us should look to see how there brokers are doing and try to get their money out if they smell something funny.

On what the SNB did yesterday and the manner of how it did it, I remain convinced that I can never know where the market will go. Trading to me is an art of playing the possibility; you restrict the risk and try to magnify the profit.

I was on the wrong end of the biggest daily FX move since the 70s. The forex world literally came to an end for a couple of hours.

Despite that, I managed to sustain my account (albeit losing 15% of my equity.) That is because before I longed USDCHF, I told myself “I’m certain of my bias, but I’ll take only a small position (based on what I learned from money management) because you never know what will happen.”

Now to me that trade is as beautiful a trade as the 1000+ pips I made on USDJPY in three months.

I think also the lesson we can learn from this is that we should never be arrogant with what we know. We analyze like the geniuses we are, but we trade like the helpless nobody’s we could be if central banks decide to pull the plug.