Hey guys!
Well, it’s just a minute past 5am for me. And the news just came out for EUR (ZEW for Germany). Talk about sentiment. It looks like the Eurozone will just go down hill from here. And that did real good for my EUR/JPY, CHF/JPY open trades.
Sentiments are looking real bad for them.
Looks like they are not gonna go up, as some people were thinking, (low prices).
Interesting stuff.
Mike
Hi peterma (and everyone else),
can we say that the EUR/USD and GBP/USD correlation and “balance” is back? As EUR lost yesterday and today the whole time their curve is “similar” again. It is a pitty that I closed yesterday my EUR/USD short trades at 1.3380 and at 1.3363. What is your daily view on your two pairs now? EUR shows huge weakness as Mike says but I think we will see very soon a serious support level which is hard to break.
Good trading to all of you!
Hi Mike,
the best part of your analysis that it can provide great setups for my daytrading strong/weak strategy. As I do not follow always every currency, I did not recognize CAD strength vs. all currencies. As soon as I have seen your writing I thought what an ideal setup for USD/CAD long after such a retracement. I clicked on the chart and saw that I am already late as the pair moved already 21 pips up. Still it gave a great idea. It gave me 2 other ideas though where I might jump in, the price is the question. NZD and AUD got some strength, if they still go higher then I will short both of them against the USD.
Keep going with your daily records, they are great!
rookie, are you currently in trades or waiting for opportunities?
Hey FE,
I’m in with AUDUSD short, NZDJPY short AUD was doing great in the morning almost went down 20 pip against USD but after the housing data and some other medium impact better than expected data went up again but still doing okay for now except for NZDJPY I’ll keep them until I see obvious bias change in price action at least until this Friday.
I’m looking at other pairs as well that are trending I will update them as I go in with them are you with NZDJPY already ?
RE: I’m looking at EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY good thing Mike has mentioned about the sentiment bearish data for Eurozone, I had already drawn my fibs retracement I’ll go in tomorrow after the bearish candle closes below 38.2 
Hey guys…
Well, I’ll tell you what I got going.
These 6 are trending (my determination), and in for the longer term. I did add some position size to some of them, and moved stop losses.
EUR/USD — - 2k size
NZD/USD — - 2k size
USD/CAD — + 1k
NZD/JPY — - 1k
EUR/JPY — - 1k
CHF/JPY — - 1k
These are not technically trending (longer term), but are for the shorter term (this week sometime time span)
USD/CHF — + 1k
EUR/CHF — + 5k
I took at 10 pip loss on GBP/USD going low. So, did not get back in.
I’m in EUR/CHF because they are at a major support level, short term trade, and a tight stop loss in place, also with a short take profit. 5 and 9 pips respectively.
Been doing good this week so far. We’ll see if the market will continue with the flow.
Mike
Hi guys,
rookie, I am not already in the NZD/JPY but already out +29 pips. USD/CHF short-term already out with +26 pips. USD/JPY is a bigger war, currently in small plus.
The medium/long-term exoctic currencies are not doing that great. Only USD/MXN short is going good. What was not good and I should have known that it was a presidental election in Turkey on Sunday and the western world does not like the outcome. This waits on all these currencies but of course mostly on TRY. No worries though at this point.
I like your setup for EUR/JPY and CHF/JPY pairs. I will check it out and decide if I go with it. However I am in many trades again and first may reduce the number of trades so I can better manage them.
Good luck further on for both of you.
I didn’t take the Gold short trade I wanted. But may be I will as the week progresses. I took a chance with an AUDCHF short but did not work and I lost 28 pips. The only position I have on now is long USDJPY and I’m still at a small loss (less than 10 pips).
I have to say I’m surprised with the Yen resilience against the Dollar especially. It is worth noting that, seasonally speaking, August is usually the strongest month in the Yen. We could be on for an unpleasant surprise come the GDP announcement.
Price was around 3340 when FE posted above - around the low of the day.
Nice call FE
Hi rookie,
today you have some possibility to trade the news. I am looking forward to trade the cable in 45 minutes, but it might not get much attention as Carney speaks 1 hour later. I will try to watch that live, it might make some volatility. In the afternoon session I will look for the US tier 1 data to trade, but have not decided vs which currency.
You asked my strategy. I cannot describe the whole strategy at the moment but the main point is today: I make orders in case the report is good for the USD. In case it is good for GBP then I do not trade the news, I will trade the retracement when the signal comes for it. [I]The important point is: I only trade in the direction for the currency I believe to be strong.[/I] That is the USD for me right now.
Good Morning guys…
Yesterday results:
GBP: +7 0 0
AUD: +4 -1 2
CAD: +3 -1 3
USD: +2 -1 4
CHF: +1 -2 4
JPY: +1 -3 3
EUR: +1 -4 2
NZD: 0 -7 0
Major/Comm:
Monday: Comm +1
Tuesday: Majors +2
So, how about the total for the week so far:
GBP: +12 -1 1
CAD: +10 -1 3
USD: +5 -2 7
AUD: +4 -4 6
CHF: +1 -4 9
JPY: +1 -5 8
EUR: +1 -7 6
NZD: 0 -10 4
Surely the GBP has been setting up for the news that’s coming out soon. We’ll see if they are right, (to go up).
We have NZD been beating up upon. But, I see this morning (london session early) they have definitely been making some come backs.
Once again always interesting. Yeah FE, I will be real curious to see what happens with the pound shortly. I would have to agree with you on hoping it will be not so good news. But isn’t it interesting how the market has priced in it being good already? We seen how the market priced in the USD news a couple weeks ago. Didn’t turn out as they wanted, but seemed to kick start the USD for strength lately. So, I will agree with you that the USD is the strongest. What will happen if GBP comes out with positive stuff? They are already on the high side of things. I won’t be in the market also if they go positive.
Let the games begin!
Mike
Thanks FE for sharing ! Today I’ve closed both of my Comms with a loss AUD , NZD. Despite weak Chinese data Aussie dollar kept resilient against USD, and kiwi kept shooting up against Yen again despite slightly better than expected data for yen. However my bias for comms still remains bearish. And I will again look for an opportunity to short these. I was actually thinking of trading US high impact news release during NY session today. I was looking at USDJPY and USDCAD if the data favors US I’ll go long on both of these pairs if it doesn’t like you I wouldn’t trade them. I’m still wondering how kiwi managed to climb higher as it did during Asian session against yen despite data favoring yen.
Hey Rookie!
Yeah, I got stopped out of NZD/JPY myself. Actually been being stopped out quite a bit this week so far, on others also. What’s hurting me mostly is the EUR,CHF, against the JPY. I guess I’m dealing with weak vs. weak.
But they haven’t really broke my threshold just yet.
My USD trades have been holding things up. In on 3 USD.
Hang tough.
Mike
This got me thinking, and my question is mainly to FE and Rookie who calculate non commercial position, did you ever rank the strength of a currency based on change in net position and then compared it to Mike’s tally? I guess it should be similar. May be of we do that and find a correlation, it will act as confirmation to trades we take?
The key for the GBP data was the earnings, the market views the down trend in earnings as an effective brake on inflation - thus diminishing the need to raise interest rates.
The UK earnings numbers have been on a downtrend, caused by more part time jobs, zero hours contracts, more self employment - thus the unemployment numbers remain good.
Flat now that the talking has started, I find that the most difficult part to trade.
The spike up on the data release is common on cable - I suppose that’s why news trading gets a bad name.
Hi rookie (and a bit Mike),
well it is hard to say what went wrong with the trades (AUD and NZD), but I try to help with possible solutions to develope your trading (if you like them you think about it, if not then ignore this post):
[I]Technical indicators[/I]: I do think that it could have been a valid trade setup, however the question is if you entered the right time or not. And as a matter of fact how long you planned these trades. If for a longer period and you already got stopped out then I would come to the conclusion that stop loss was too tight. If it was the short-term trade then maybe the indicators had a problem.
[I]Trading strong vs. weak currencies[/I]. Well I do not find the setup the easiest to trade I have to say. WE DO expect a trend change for JPY but we are not sure when it comes and currently JPY gains on geopolitical risk. This makes JPY hard to trade as if tensions rise it is gaining strength and when tensions go down it loses value. So trading the news for JPY pairs are not so logical sometimes because at the same time the are wars and people might pay more attention on those. I also do not find the these currencies very strong so trading weak vs. weak economy is never easy.
Last but not least: [I]interpretation of news[/I]. We are all humans and interpret news differently. I agree with you because of weak AUD and Chinese news but I do not know what kind of better than expected Japanese data you are talking about with my own interpretation. Asian Session Recap - Aug. 13, 2014 For me it is clearly bearish and I think the reaction of traders weighted just more the Japanese news.
Other things:
just for the fact yesterday I was finished with my last short-term setup from the weekend (NZD/JPY short, USD/JPY long, USD/CHF long). They all made +20-30 pips. Looking back, I am happy with two trades but not really with the USD/JPY. There was just many more pips in it. The long-term trades are not doing that good, but that is why they are called long-term.
We just had BOE Report and if you heard Carney you could take profit from it. I am bit angry because I missed 8 minutes of the speech, I did not find it online right away. I could still make pips on it but half of it was already away. If you made orders like we discussed earlier, you could have made +70-80 pips (we sould not be greedy, I do not take the whole move to capture, the 70-80 pips is more realistic). As I said I got a lot less of it.
Good luck for the afternoon session
PS: as I read Mike’s post, he already wrote weak vs. weak. That is exactly how I see it.
Thanks peterma your fast update and sharing your thoughts!!! Please share with us your wisdom tips like your “spike up” observation. :59:
Hi Philip,
your idea is not so easy to realize in the first round of thoughts Although the percentile comparison of currencies is most likely the only thing we can do about that and that is a reason why I do it, to see strength. But not in a way you write it with net positions. I think the main problem with net positions is that - 100 000 net position for EUR has a completely different value as a - 40 000 net position for NZD as the demand is just a hell of a lot higher for EUR, so in the above example NZD might be a lot more bearish with a lot more positive reading. This also goes on the change of net position as smaller currencies most likely have smaller net changes as the main currencies. As I said, these were my first thoughts.
Hey FE,
I think my bias towards JPY was wrong. Ive actually thought about pretty much everything that you’ve listed while trying to figure out what went wrong. I’ve looked at technical aspects of it, I might have entered a bit too early I concluded with my SL being tight about 20 pips away.
I was following my myfxbook calendar GDP annualized came out at -6.8% /consensus -7.1%/, GDP quarter at -1.7% /consensus -1.8%/ though it was a lot worse than previous figures it was slightly higher than what was expected. I thought that would pull JPY up against NZD as it was already weak but it didn’t. I think I should have looked at JPY on a bigger scale at its economy rather than focusing on actual v consensus, a small part.
I’m finding it hard to adjust my trading plan as sessions carry on and flow of things shift, prior to this week I used to have a rigid plan and if things went well I didnt look for more opportunities to trade if not I simply didnt place a trade at all.
I agree with you that for now USD seems to be the strongest of all, I don’t see much strength elsewhere. There aren’t much pairs trending now Mike, JPY turned out to be bearish /I was wrong/ weak EUR and the comms. Not much to pair really except for USD v weak pairs.
I was late to GBP data release but I’m going to be trading the US retail sales in one and a half hour, my first attempt
Lol, nothing wise about it, seems to happen often with cable on UK news, especially when the numbers go in the direction being anticipated - I have seen all sorts of theories as to why.
Anyways, good luck to everyone on the forum
Yes Philip, I usually take a look at Mikes stats and see where things are going during the week.
It’s a bit tricky, on a short to medium term things play out a little different from what my weekly report says. Everybody takes turns from what I know. Its never really a victory to one or two currencies throughout the week.
I think it’s all about adjusting your plans during the week while still at the same not losing sight of where things are headed on a longer term.