Yes, the first thing that jumped out is the idea of using the chart to measure, or at least get a feel of market risk sentiment.
Looking at Jpy, and I see it moved to the left, then I look at the S&P, then I get the sense that I would not want to sell Jpy right now.
The rapid movement on Aud draws attention and worthy of research, Euro seems to be also on the move.
This is what is good about this chart, it draws attention to otherwise easily missed detail.
Another quick analysis on Mikeâs meter - Friday, Aud/Cad at extremes.
So taking that over to h1 and I see price up at resistance, h1 trend is up, the pull back is shallow, so worth keeping an eye there to see what happens, will there be a push up?
Hey Peter.
YeahâŚletâs diag this baby.
You have made a good point about the AUD/CAD.
When I look at this, Iâm trying to put it into the perspective of whatâs trending. See, at the top, I have the
[I]long term trend standings[/I]. AND I NEED TO NOTE that the first 3 (GBP,CHF,USD) are all tied, in my book.
Thatâs my view looking at the monthly time frame perspective.
And when we first begin the month we can see that the Comms are following the trend, for them is last compared to the majors. And when I look at the others, the JPY is the currency that has, for the most part, broken away to the front.
Also look at the EUR. They have been sort of a risk on currency. I think they kind of pull up the Comms, to a degree. Thatâs interesting. So, go down the list and look at them in relation to the Comms. It seems like they brought up the AUD. Then, they âsling shotâ them to the front.
Another diagnosis for me is to see that it seems like, in the Comm arena, that the AUD and the NZD trade places (lately anyway). And poor old CAD. Actually, they seem to follow the NZD! Until the end. A divergence has taken place. And then they followed the AUD.
So, we kind of know what happens on Fridays, profit taking. Now, in regards to that, look at the EUR. I have a funny feeling that come Mondayâs results they will just boost back up to the front.
So when I think about the Majors and whoâs the stronger one thereâŚwell, itâs tough to say now. Because, yeah, the JPY is currently. But we need to remember and look at how strong they were in the first week and a half of the month. They are dying out.
And letâs compare the GBP and the USD. The USD was stronger up until the 10th. Then they battled, then finally diverged. It sure seems like the flow there is moving towards the GBP now.
So, to kind of put it into a flow perspectiveâŚwe still have another week and a half to go in the month.
I see the Comms finally rearing their heads. With the AUD leading the way.
The Majors switching strengths with the JPY falling away. The EUR becoming no stranger to first place.
Letâs see how the month plays out.
Mike
P.S. I just canât wait to go back and fill in the other months data. I will start working my way backwards.
There is one pair also of interest on the chart, GBP/NZD - both on the long term extremes.
There is only two occasions that NZD got onto the winning side.
D1 obviously on an uptrend confirming the MikeMeter, down to h1 and zoom right back, price currently sitting on upward trend line:
See Fridayâs action as âreachingâ down to the trend line, so a coming together on that day, but I see a widening generally, so aligning with the upward trend - this is one for the watchlist in the upcoming week.
And a close up of h1 on Friday:
And back to the fundamentals and rate hike USA.
The fact that the Fed listened to the market this month instils confidence, strangely, should there be a hike this year I suspect that the market may simply take it in itâs stride - we now know that the Fed are tuned in.
Hi Peter,
I know it is only Monday and you usually not trade on this day, but wondered if you made any trades. The long-term trends were going great to the direction of the main trends. I guess these days are perfect (at least usually for me) when short term economic calendar events do not âdisturbâ the main ongoing trends and the markets work âthey way they shouldâ. I still enjoy the anti CHF carry trades and the slow progresses there.
I am excited how the week will continue?
Phil, are you trading? No setups/ideas are coming from you.
Take care,
FE
Hi FE,
No trades today, would have gone long Eur/Usd if it had moved up from 1255, but never looked like doing so.
I see the consensus is that the SNB have not been active recently.
Gbp/Usd is showing some resilience so will watch out there. S&P - just gone long there, will be either stop out or add in trade,
Hey guysâŚPeter.
What do ya say we keep up with the flow.
Well, collectively, the Majors were on top.
The EUR (I was soooo wrong) was the only weak Major. Now in last with sis (for the month).
The CAD was the strong Comm.
The GBP pulled up to the top, for the month.
We just might have a turn around for the Comms heading into the final days of the month. Heading back where they were at the beginning. �??
Mike
Yep, patience is now key, even the Europeans upset my little S&P buy.
Still no fx trades for me, long (again) S&P - trying to get something going but important to start small.
Just wanted to ask if you guys trade forex, because for me nothing really comes up that looks interesting. Just range trading and short-term volatile moves. Hope soon the ongoing trends will continue.
As I have read many times, these are the perfect time to do some advanced search in other fields of forex or read some books.
FE
Yeah, some of the market sayings are based on myths, yet others are based on experience.
Friday morning I mentioned, on a different thread, that most retail would likely be short USD, specifically I was thinking of longs on Euro/Usd - 3 days later and price is minus 340 pips, so maybe there is a truth in the saying not to follow the crowd.
It takes patience and discipline to not follow the crowd. FE is correct, some learning time.
Is the sky still blue?
Is a frogs butt water tight?
UhhâŚyep. Iâm still trading forex.
This week has been a good week for my trading. Iâve been all in with the trending pairs.
Sure, in the last 2 weeks the market has not really been following the trend. But my feeling was right about this week.
18 trades placed at the open.
12 closed positive.
2 closed negative.
4 still running.
+704.9 pips so far.
Against NZDâ6. All closed positive.
Against AUDâ5. All closed positive.
Against CADâ5. 2 closed negative. 3 still running.
Against CHFâ2. 1 closed positive. 1 still running.
The CAD has been beating me this week.
But for the month, so far, Iâve finally come back up to break even, for the most part.
But, anyway, FE, your funny. ([I]still trading forex?[/I]
Mike
Hi Mike,
sorry for the wording, my mistake. Obviously I am also trading, I meant if you are having running trades, especially short-term. I am interested, because I do not see many good setups so I do not enter trades.
FE
Eur/Gbp signalling some Euro buying of interest - not yet GBP selling so may have a positive effect Eur/Usd
Update: Euro buying had that effect, despite Draghi not ruling out more QE, maybe the market agrees with my view that QE long term is an effective medicine for EZ - no GBP selling despite Eur/Gbp which would cause me NOT to sell that cross.
Been reading over your fundamentals a bit. donât mean to pry, but last I looked the Euros are having a bit of an inflation problem or lack of it, along with US low inflation numbers. So volatility most likely low right now, with more strength in US headed our way. I believe the USD is more of an economic barometer than a leader this month. Last week would have been a nice money maker especially after watching the Eur go sky high then fall like a rock on Fed news. Could have made some pips either way, long or short. No I did not place a trade, but wish I had.
Hi Team,
Peter, GBPNZD broke the strong trendline, we have to see if it was a fakeout or a real breaking of it. I also see huge AUD strength, any opinion on that?
Philip, are you watching the COT Report? I am watching when the next COT Index signals are going to come to sell commodities. Do you trade any commodities these days?
FE
No new low made as yet on Aud/Usd but Iâd say not so many buyers whilst data from China continues.
Gbp/Nzd already heading back up so likely more buyers. Took a small long on Eur/Usd yesterday, thatâs the first this week.
GuysâŚ
Well, here it is. This should give us a picture of the month. (I revised it. It goes from left to right, and from the top down)
Once again. All the numbers shown on a day is the total % added up each day from the beginning of the month. Itâs the cumulative total.
Mike
I actually shorted GBPNZD early this week and from what I can see I think we are yet to see an upward turn just yet. But Iâm speaking from 30m view.
Mike, Iâm with you on EUR. EUR was in the shadow of pound from last week to early this week. I saw indications of euro buying from tuesday went long on EURJPY yesterday. Now looking back EURUSD was a good choice, both signaled long.
Peter, EURJPY and EURUSD both signaled long I took EURJPY because it had already went one leg up on 30m compared to EURUSD so in my head I was thinking the probability was higher with EURJPY. At first glance the move of EURUSD seemed similar to EURJPY. But now EURUSD is front and EURJPY is behind. Why is that ?
