Take into consideration for last weeks' action, that it was the first week of the month where key reports were published which always create a huge volatility in the market:
Now here are my findings for the following week:
AUD: although it does not look to be completely in an extreme position, 61.68% non-commercials are long, AUD had gained hundreds of pips since February and Fundamentals are not helping AUD either. I think latest in a couple of weeks, AUD will be turning to the downside. I will look at it closely to get in at the right time.
GBP: although the Pound gained again this week, 64.10% of non-commercials are already long, looking at the Cotbase.com graph and interpreting the news it looks like GBP is loosing its steam. Just like the AUD, it might not yet been in a turning point but it this will come soon to the downside!
CAD: as you might know, I am bullish on CAD and I am also in a long trade vs. the CHF. My bullish bias stays with CAD, maybe I should change the setup though and not trading against CHF but against another currency. Non-commercial net long positions are 37.05%, fundamentals were not great this week but I think CAD can rebalance and will gain some pips again.
EUR: people got quite negative on the EUR within 5 weeks of time. Of course it is logical as the currency lost almost 400 pips vs. USD. 38.78% of non-commercials are long and the interest rate cut does not help the currency either. I rather stay away from this currency. COT makes slowly a signal to buy, on the other side my fundamental bias is more to sell.
JPY: if I am getting really bullish on a pair, it is the JPY. Only 12.65% of the non-speculators are net long, so it is getting to a COT extreme. USD/JPY is in a tight range since half a year. On my opinion it is only a matter of time when JPY breaks out and get strength. And for this time I do not think that we have to wait long!
CHF: it looks a lot more balanced as last time. It is still not really bullish though, and as I said I will stay in my CHF short trade but might change it in a week.
USD: just like the last months, the USD is producing all kinds of mixed reports, quite balanced currency without clear directions. I do not see good trading opportunities tor the currency.
NZD: I would compare the NZD to GBP and to AUD. It has a long period of strengthening behind it and it looks like steam is lost and the downside starts. What is different to AUD and GBP though the NZD started already the downward movement in my opinion about a month ago. It retraces of course and still show strength however 82.14% net long positions of non-commercials show that there are not too many possibilities to grow and the decline will most likely come/is already in decline.
BRL: this week we have to travel to Brasil for an exotic currency setup. The BRL has a net long position of non-commercials of 75.07% and open interest raised about 20% this week. This shows that volatility and action is about to come!
Instead of giving tipps to exact currency pairs this week, I rather tell my medium- and long-term view on the different currency:
Bullish: CAD and JPY
Bearish: AUD, NZD and GBP.
Neutral (including currencies with slightly bullish and slightly bearish): USD, EUR and CHF.
I wish good luck to you all and I am interested about your opinion what your medium- to long term bias is on the currencies!