I’m staying on the sidelines myself! Although we’re seeing some shifts in EUR and JPY positioning based on Forex Ninja’s latest update: Weekly CFTC COT Forex Positioning: Euro and Yen Bears in Play
Hi Guys, just a quick mention on oil and the S&P
Trading the S&P yesterday and again today, nothing on fx so far this week.
What prompted me yesterday was yet again the green lights for the sectors, same picture today.
What was surprising was that xle was leader of the pack yesterday, I expected to see a rise in WTI, surprise, surprise there was nothing much, yet XLE was marching onward.
No surprise then that today WTI found new legs.
XLE yesterday and today:
And XLE’s influence on the S&P again today. (tradingview.com)
I now exit the long because maybe a stall in oil price soon.
(sectorspdr.com)
Hi Peter,
awesome analysis. One question: why do you think that oil prices are going to fall? I mean there are quite many reasons for it, but I guess your reasoning is not COT report or oversupply from a bloomberg article 
I smell something more with the sectors or technical in it.
Take care,
FE
Hi FE,
No it’s just down to enough for the day, when the S&P is up at these higher levels I usually exit if there is any sign of loss of momentum, since the driver is the energy sector and oil plays such a large role in that then I exit when I see something like this:
(USO 15min)
OIL etf is similar.
Well FE was correct, the Gold traders didn’t buy which gave a clear indication of USD strength in the couple of days ahead which was the start of this week. Price is now around 200 pips below that post, that’s FX I suppose.
Just to mention last night’s exit on s&p and the reference to oil, I see wti has fallen today, so the heads up on USO last night was valid.
A lot of reds on the sector spdrs at present and the leader down is none other than XLE.
There was another little marker that I hadn’t the time to post on - little ol W/S on the US 10yr with s&p, this is what I was looking at in addition to the ETF’s
So guys, any bets, strategies, hopes, takes etc. before the NFP. I am ready for a disappointment. Of course I will not jump into it before the event, but looking at the numbers of the last reports, I am more beleiving in a downside surprise.
FE
Hey FE…
Well, this morning, at about 2 hrs into London, I switched. I’m now with the Comms.
This week I was in with the Majors over the Comms. And I jumped. Lost -1139.6 pips.
After the GBP was dumped yesterday, and seeing the numbers change. I believe it’s going with the Comms, coming up.
This is pretty much how the week went. (I started with the M over C ). Things went down hill, I was down to just about -1000 pips. Then mid week things turned back around and I was up to about +200 pips. Then it turned back around again. I was down to about -1200 pips. That’s when I changed over to the Comms.
And we’re at the present now.
I’m thinking it’s going to the Comms. (Putting money on it)
We’ll see how it goes.
P.S. —Glad to here your sentiment also. Hope your right buddy!!
Let the games begin.
Mike
Well that was that, I went short Eur/usd just before the news - reasoning same as the US GDP release, no way would the Fed have released a hawkish statement if the NFP was going to disappoint.
I’d say the gold traders have been betting the same since the release of that Fed statement.
Wow that was a movement! One of the best reports I guess! Well Mike, this did not go the way we expected Wonder how long the USD hype can last.
Hey guys.
Let’s talk. Put down your pencils, take a coffee break. I know your all retrieving, analyzing, compiling all what happened this week. Yes, me too. So, I just wanted to shoot out to you what I have seen so far.
I started with the USD, and this is what I find interesting.
Well, I got them trending high across the board (long term, medium term, short term) against all the other Majors. BUT…not so fast against the Comms.
[B]USD[/B] (Long term, medium term, short term)
—CAD—[B]+ R +[/B]
—AUD—[B]+ R R[/B]
—NZD—[B]+ R R[/B]
So, all you have to do is look at the charts in the monthly time frame, weekly time frame, and daily.
That’s my estimation, above. BTW…the medium term against the AUD I have right at the breaking point now (weekly tf). So, if it goes up, it’s ranging, and down will move into trending high (USD trending high against the AUD).
This tells me that the USD surely has room to move until we get to extremes. That’s predominantly in the medium and short term time spans.
I’m not saying there won’t be a bounce, but, all I’m thinking is I think there’s a better chance that next week the Dollar can move on a whole lot more against them.
This coming week should be telling. And I’m talking about the short term direction before Dec comes.
Cause surely you would think that there would be some taking profits (bounce) before they continue their domination.
OK guys, you all can continue on with your analyzing. With the coffee of course.
BTW…yeah FE, I took a hit. I’m humbled. And I am NOT going to get psychologically bent out of shape. It is early in the month. There’s more opportunity coming. I’m just waiting for the open so I can get in on with the Majors. (Believe me, I am not beating myself up about ‘why did I change over to the Comms’).
It’s pointless. I’m moving on and just want to get in on with the flow.
One more thing guys.
I bought a book, it came yesterday. I’m super excited about it. [I]Profitability and Systematic Trading, by Michael Harris[/I]. That’s due to this chick out there who mentions it often (here in BP’s). I think she’s very smart. Like real smart.
Talk to me guys!
Mike
Hi Mike,
I liked how you differentiated the trend between the Majors and the Comms how they look like vs. the USD. What I do not get is if you are looking at the longer term trends then why are you jumping in and out of those trades when those long term trends actually change a lot slower?
I am also interested basically in all books, but first you should read it and keep us updated how it was
Have a great Sunday,
FE
Hey FE…
It’s all about perspective.
I don’t find the trends to dictate my trades directly. I just need to have the complete picture in front of me.
And as time passes by I am able to see change. And that change consists of the 3 parts (long, med, short terms). It’s visually kind of like a snake. It bends. And I can always look back and analyze what has been taking place. It’s an on going process.
It’s a tool. An aide. And it only makes sense not to be too short sighted, or far sighted. Kind of like I need a 3-D picture of what’s going on.
Oh, and then when you compare each of the relationships to one another, that leaves me with some good data.
It’s structure.
That’s how I look at the market. Cause I don’t believe it’s chaos.
Mike
What happens if Fed doesn’t hike in December?
First the world goes down and the USD will follow
[QUOTE=“PhilipPirrip;732224”]What happens if Fed doesn’t hike in December?[/QUOTE]
Fed hike at least the first one has become imminent, especially after that very solid NFP numbers. Unless the data between now and Dec surprises the market and the Fed. I’m with Dec hike. The first hike has been priced in since last summer so I don’t think there’s going to be much follow through on dollar buying after the initial jump unless FED gives a clue as to how sooner they’re going to move up the rates. But I doubt the second one is going to come as easy with dampened global growth outlook. Regardless of their domestic economic growth they’re going to have to account in emerging markets IMF has warned FED on numerous occasions.
:worlds biggest shipping company says global economic growth is even worse than it looks: can’t link the article here now.
Deflationary risks are looming over China, the transition won’t be as smooth as we’d like it to. But from what I’ve read they’d been taking necessary measures. Market is expecting PBOC to cut rates further.
Oil is continuing on its downward spiral. But oil led investment has been decreasing. With decreasing suppliers and heavy burden of increasing operational loss sometime next year the oil price might go up.
BoE Carney was all on rate hike but at its latest meeting he took a cautious stance. Pound crosses aren’t doing all too well on weekly. Again like USD the first rate hike has been priced in long ago. The second one you ask , I don’t think it’s until FED hikes.
EUR, ECB is out to ease again.
You’d think in this scenario comms would take control finally. But aussie is struggling although the head of RBA hasn’t been all that dovish lately. Concerns over China.
Kiwi, El Niño drought effect might pull NZ into recession. Fonterra announced that it was losing out to EU competitors. GDT numbers tell it all. RBNZ will have to ease again.
Where are we headed ?
Deflationary risks are looming over China.
If you asked me if I would hold trades any longer than a week or two I’d say no thanks I’ll take what I can get.
Having said that, in the short to medium term I’m seeing some decent setups for instance GBPAUD provided that PBOC ease further and AUD employment figures come out decent.
GBPJPY, GBPCAD short. I’m up with AUDNZD just qualifies for your system Philip.
On the other hand I was betting on euro to climb higher against NZD it did on 30m but not enough on 4h chart can go lower any minute. Mr. Wheeler is speaking later this week that’s all there is for EURNZD to go higher for now.
Greetings all.
I know this thread is like a small family so I’m making my introduction about reading along and hopefully interacting a little. I began my FX education a number of years ago but life got in the way of me jumping in as I had planned. However, “sponge mode” is back on and I’m looking to add to my fundamental understanding of things.
I’ve been reading along I am more inclined to be data driven like Mike W. I’m reading John Murphy’s - Intermarket Analysis book at the moment and noting items to expand upon once I’m done. I know a lot of you quote tidbits of info but where is your primary source of information? I tend to make little manuals for myself for references and would like to add to that with whatever you can provide.
I know you are all much further along than I am in levels of understanding so I hope you don’t mind an understudy.
Thanks,
EJ
Hi BostonEJ,
first of all: welcome to the thread.
Yes, you are right this thread is like a small family where we all help each other. We started one and a half year ago, have been through quite a lot, but were never shaken out of our believes and always following our goals.
We all learnt a lot here (I believe) and made important steps.
BBalazs, rookie and Philip are not as active lately, but will hopefully contribute further on.
peterma is the star of the thread, but with Mike we are also there always. Different to the current situation of the thread to the earlier is that we understand each other already with a coupld of words so the posts are shorter.
We have been discussing in this thread the Intermarket Analysis books many time. I am not sure how you could search those posts. I made with the help of the others the first post to become a table of content. However as the Intermarket Analysis books have nothing to do with the COT Report, they are not involved in it 
Where is our source of information? I tell you: it comes from our own. I told our team a couple of times to try to have as few links about other sites and analysts as rarely as possible. Experience shows that other opinions are only disturbing us in logical thinking and making right decisions. We read of course fundamentals, but the decisions are purely our own.
We all developed our systems which works for us, the rest we discuss here.
Once more, I am happy to have a fresh member to give a new face to our thread,
FE
PS: if you like Mikes approach, feel free to contact him in this thread and discuss the important points. The quality of his analysis has improved significantly and he made enormous steps compared to the “old Mike” one and a half year ago.
Hey guys…EJ. New Mike here
Welcome to the thread. (Sorry, but I just got caught up on things here now)
Looks like the boys are back! Rook, I missed you. Philip, I missed you too!
So, EJ, take a seat. Join us around the table, and let’s talk.
I’ll tell you something. We definitely have a bunch a genius’ in here. And I’m not kidding. Some of the things that comes out of Philip’s mouth is incredible. And better yet, our father figure Peter, well, there just isn’t much he hasn’t seen in the market over the years. So, his manual is experience.
I would hope we could get to know you EJ.
See, we are concentrating on finding the present market sentiment. We have our own studies. And we come in here to the round table and bounce things off of one another. And, of course, it all revolves around trying to make good trades.
I’ll be able to tell you (in pips and %) about how one currency fared to another. I believe in relationships. And I just want to know how the field is looking in regards to trends and dominance’s.
So, I just wanted to welcome you here.
Now, bring on the questions!
Mike
P.S. —FE, I missed you too buddy!