Well, how about that market sentiment this week so far?
It’s all been Comms. And I’ve raked up a lot. (Remember…I’m in with either the Comms against Majors, or visa versa.) So, I kept my positions open since Friday. I let them run on since then. And wow…am I glad I did. I finally closed out my positions at Asia open Wednesday. Don’t have the exact number yet, but it’s around 2,000 pips. I was down around -400 pips at the weekend. Then it slowly came up. Ended +1570 or so.
It was very interesting seeing them just plow on up no matter what news came out. And then…when the AUD came out with some news at the Asia open, yeah, they boosted up quickly, but then things just backed off very much. So, I jumped and took profit.
So, after seeing things around London open, it now looks like they still have a strong hold over the Majors.
This is what I’ve been thinking this week.
We have a big push up with the Comms, until mid week, then, a turn when we get close to NFP.
I kind of think things will turn to the Majors then. Predominantly having the USD leading the way.
So, now, I’m out of the market. Just a bystander. Waiting to see a turn. If not…then back to the Comms next week.
Yep, Comms are still in control (present sentiment).
Yesterday was a CHF dominated day. BUT, the CAD was on their coat tails. Pretty strong. They upheld the Comms side of the equation very nicely. And also the GBP weighed down the Major side of it very much so.
And now, (London early Thurs) Comms are all very strong.
It’s getting very interesting. I’m seeing the Comm side much stronger, than the Major side.
But, is all this the rise before the fall???
BTW…I’m telling you guys…watch China. They’re coming.
It’s clear that Jens Weidmann got his way, also clear that he was justifying today’s ECB actions back on Nov 20 when he made this statement.
Check out second last and last paragraph in section 5 “Monetary Policy” of that speech:
Afterthought: it’s interesting how a little bit of history can have such influence almost 100 years later, it has probably caused some Euro bears much grief today.
this means you do not even update your data anymore?
In the beginning one of the reasons I wanted to have my own database was because Timingcharts and Oanda had mistakes, did not have many instruments and also not too many COT analysis, only COT Index and Net positions. I am not so familiar with Tradingview´s COT Report, maybe you can say some more about it.
Had GBPJPY long. Thinking if ECB delivers more QE EURGBP will be under pressure therefore lifting pound crosses up. GBPJPY did go up but for a different reason: risk on. Something to take note of for me.
Mike, I’m seeing comms get back up thought they were going to fall back given the pattern we seen consolidation. It’s a little too early though to make any conclusions. Your major comm analysis was probably spot on. I’m not betting on NFP now after ECB that was a real surprise (for someone who’s had not much of an experience)
I think its about time to dump long dollar trades for comms and EUR.
hahaha, well you just called it again, didn´t you? For me the issue to think about is if it is a reversal or a strong retracement? After all in my eyes EU economy did not get any better, only the statement was not so bearish as many thought about it.
Hi alnazer,
please refer to the posts with the “reply with quote” option as we do not know to whom and to which post you made your comments. I guess however it was meant to me, because of the Timingcharts site. You are right, the advantage of having your own database is to have more accurate data than the different websites have. In the thread we also have well defined steps (mostly by BB) how to create your own COT database. I hope it helps.
Yesterday was a big day for the Euro, note that in Weidmann’s speech he refers to the EZ inflation outlook, rather than deflation outlook, his thinking is on target, he notes that oil/energy is very much the driver of lower prices (commodities) but that this very same thing is helping the economies of Europe and indeed the global economy.
There is an expectation that energy prices are now stable, the threat of deflation has fallen back, there is a sense is that EZ economies have come through the worst part of the storm and are now better positioned to experience growth.
He mentions that there is much work still to be done to make the EZ a slick sports car again and that growth will come as a result of that work and not simply as in the boom driven by leverage/credit.
EZ peripherals like Ireland are leading that work, the larger ones are following.
Bottom line, the recent slide in Eur/Usd was imo more to do with positioning, what they like to call a sqeeze.
Isn´t trading beautiful? An NFP like this (even with positive revision) would have killed the markets with an amazing USD run. Today the first reaction in many pairs is negative! So fundamentals will think a couple of hours and I guess those analysts for the main websites will come out with the explanations and conclude the reaction was expected and normal I would be only interested why those smart ones only after the event can make those conclusions :-))))))))
For the upside we have a Peter who tells us actually in advance what is going to happen. Sometimes I wonder why Bloomberg and Reuters just don´t pay for our news feed here!
Hey FE.
Yep, is interesting huh.
Well, it’s a little after 1pm here my time (EST). London has left. Few more hrs to go till close.
And it looks like the Comms are still in control. Predominantly AUD, and NZD. CAD surely not helping matters. The 2 took back most of their losses against the EUR. So, I think the sentiment has not really changed. Generally, as a whole, Comms are in control. Still.
And one thing I’ve been wanting to tell you guys. I read somewhere very recent (this week) that the CHF has been front running the EUR. So, when I tallied up the numbers, yep, sure enough, it was on Wed that the CHF just pounded everyone. Very, very strong. Then, we had Thurs come. That’s when the EUR went ballistic on all. So, that was a confirmation to me that it’s true. The Swiss IS front running the EUR.
I’m not completely sure of the reasons, but it’s true. So, that makes me watch the CHF with the EUR in mind. It’s all about the correlation, that get’s me excited. We need to know this stuff.
Pops…you got anything on that fact?
Mike
P.S…Peter, I have the most respect for you. Always.
Lol, very beautiful indeed, but also very frustrating.
Told today that some UK banks intend to refuse mortgages to people whose primary income is in Euro, they’ve so decided, not on what they consider the future to hold (always thought mortgages were future based), but on they conceive the current trend on Eur/Gbp to be.
Anyways, on a more optimistic note, our good friend at the Bundesbank has indeed been reading our thread and is in agreement, not only are the minnows like Ireland turning a corner, he emphasized today (probably after reading our thread :)) :
[B]Europe’s biggest economy, upgrading its growth forecast for 2017[/B].
Was a follow up of the last statement, included in today’s upbeat statement was:
“But with export markets outside the euro area expected to rebound and economic growth within the euro area gaining a little more traction, the healthy underlying state of the German economy should stand out even more clearly over the next two years,”
So, our little thread includes market sentiment, seems our good friend’s sentiment is very much positive.
yeah, many traders have noticed over the years that CHF vs USD and EUR vs USD, although mirrored in correlation there is a difference, maybe to do with liquidity, I don’t know the reason.
The difference is often on news days and in the ‘spikes’, CHF is generally more TA friendly on such days, so stops needed are usually less, especially on straddles.
Example, yesterday on 15min, USD/CHF the high before the fall was very clean, zoom back and you can see it, resistance/support/resistance - by the book.
Then check EUR/USD, not as clean, yeah there was support 1.0560, session low, but the straddles with their 20pip stops lost out - the s, then r, then s at 1.0250 needed less.
Yesterday was prob not the best example, often the straddles are on NFP, so over the next few months check it out, less spikey but similar gain.
One final thing, hate doing all this look back stuff, but I hate much more how the bankers manipulate price and get guys sucked in, I posted this late last month, those bankers are not yet finished, so when you hear that the Fed are raising, just step back and wait.
I am on the Willco now but my line is N264 as opposed to yours of N160. Should I simply halve this number to get the other number or subtract 80 or is this actually a percentage of the duration, mine being 5 years as opposed to your 3 years. I am using currencies also, and am guessing it is an extreme at that point. I will just use the silver data and try to figure it out myself if no one can enlighten me on the matter.
I was checking the long-term charts and came to the same conclusion as you did: it is questionable if CAD is still reacting as a commodity currency. I checked the CAD reaction and compared it to NZD and AUD to other pairs. Well, the similarities are just no there in many cases. This is crucial for you I guess, for your Majors vs. Commodities statistics. I believe an extended research would be good on the topic, I am not sure how one could be done.
Hey FE…
Yeah, I’ve known about that.
And I think it might have something to do with the tumbling of oil. That seems to have been a game changer.
Well, I have it all documented. And I have mentioned that they do not follow the other 2 very well. They follow the USD more than anything.
Correlations.
I’m beginning to do some serious work on that subject. All of the currencies ARE related in such a way.
This past weekend I bought some flash cards (3x5 cards). So, that’s the research topic I will be working on.
For example, look at the USD/CAD. If that pair tips one way or the other, it’s an indication of what the Majors or Comms side of it will tilt. And lately it’s been indecision. Look at the weekly chart. That seems like it’s winding up to either go up more, OR , it’s at a top and needs a fall.
But, that’s just an example of a correlation that I’m looking at. Each pair means something, in the bigger picture. (AUD/JPY is the big picture of the Comm/Major tilt)
I just might be busy with that all next year also.
Mike
Here’s USD/CAD weekly. The entire year. And it’s been mostly Majors, with a couple good Comm runs in between.
Mike, let me know if I can help in any way. You’re starting into an area that I started looking into as well when I posted here a few weeks ago. Maybe PM me with some thoughts and I can see if I can work through some stuff and we can circle back in comparison.
Hey guys.
Got something here. Talk about the big picture. I’m gonna show you what has transpired between the Majors vs. the Comms this year. Below is a chart of the pips accrued between both of them. See, there are 15 pairs (5 Majors against 3 Comms). At the end of every day there’s a total. Either it will be positive for one or the other. And I have all those totals. But what I did is make a running total since the beginning of the year. All positive totals were to the Majors. Any negative numbers went to the Comms.
So, that’s pips counted every day. 240 days total (to date). If there’s any line moving up, that was Majors over the Comms. Any line moving down was the Comms over the Majors.
So, imagine that at the beginning of the year I made one trade, Majors over the Comms…right now (end of day yesterday) I would be +17,931 pips up.
Interesting?
Mike
P.S…boy that’s hard to see. Sorry! The lines on the left are every 5,000 pips. So, the first line is 0. Then 5k, 10k, 15k, 20k, 25k. That was pretty much how much the Majors accumulated over the Comms at the high. (25k pips)
I would be only interested why those smart ones only after the event can make those conclusions :-))))))))
