I’ll post my analysis during the weekend. I have to setup my database again because I had to reinstall Windows on my computer.
Hi BB,
How is your database work? Did you set it up again? Just to give you a bit heads up: in the current slow moving market conditions you did not miss any long-term opportunitites - at least according to me - as there were no signals.
I am waiting to see what you come up with.
FE
Hi guys,
I checked the COT report, didn´t find too many interesting markets this week. The ones that got my attentions were sugar and orange juice. How interesting is that most commodities are struggling and are in a clear downtrend and these two are booming and heading up on the longer term charts.
Also lately there is some divergence between crude oil and natural gas as the second did not turn down lately but held to its gains.
FE
Hi everyone,
As far as I see not many of you follow these days the COT report or just do not want to share the findings. I checked out many of the instruments again, well it is moving for most of them sideways, not even touching the extreme levels of the COT index.
One possible explanation for that could be that based on the “1 minute commodity trader strategy” I believe we see many trend changes and there are quite some commodities where we have to start looking for buy signals instead of the sell.
I wish everyone a great remaining part of the weekend,
FE
Hi FE,
I’d say that the reason for the ‘quiet’ on COT and the likelihood of trend change is reflected in the CRB.
On the EOD chart there are higher lows and lower highs, a triangle or wedge that the technicians refer to.
I suppose this is best reflected in oil intra-day where it seems that on one day the bulls are in command and then suddenly the opposite.
In the midst of these conflicting signals the commercials are trying to hedge their risk, some risking that price will continue in a tight range, others staying on the side.
Best example is perhaps the airline industry - have they been hedging on increased fuel costs up the line or stepping back - not an easy call.
Edit: since never shy of giving my opinion I’d say that the CRB will rise beyond June 16, but may take into Feb 2017 to do so 
Just a wee mention on Eur/Gbp - good chance of a further break north this week, maybe even new lows on cable as well.
The pound is likely to see more selling as the rhetoric on Brexit will come to the fore starting tomorrow - the new term is “hard exit”.
Hi Peter,
yes, some time ago you mentioned that on GBP pairs maybe we will see a new base forming for many pairs. It is however hard to see how long the fall might go and when that new base starts to form. I wish you a great week,
FE
Hi FE,
Perhaps the Eur/Gbp base has now formed, FX providers are offering 86.50 this morning - I would not be surprised to see parity in the months up ahead.
The BOE laid out their concerns last week, it’s not all Brexit, I posted a link over on Clint’s BIS thread.
And so it continues - the ‘hard exit’ term became the phrase for the ruling party at their conference this week, that term caused another push down on GBP, now we have the tapering talk on Euro.
The ‘excuses’ to sell GBP are becoming even more lose, if sentiment was neutral then the recent UK numbers would have caused GBP buying, but when sentiment is this negative then it would take more than numbers to change things.
Problem is that sentiment is currently being dictated by politicians - so more selling to come.
OH - btw the weekly is now needed on Eur/Gbp - another line broken this morning, likely the providers will be offering 87.50 at 9.00am
The UK PM said last night that she is unconcerned by a 31 year low on cable, so wonder will there be some more years added to that number this week, if so maybe then there might be some concern expressed, if not by ruling politicians then maybe the BOE.
CB talk could offer a respite.
Hi Peter,
I also follow that pair, I have in my what you wrote about it. It is really interesting how much weakness GBP accumulated, the fall just never really stopped. Wonder where will be the end of it. Would be great if you write when you think investors are stepping in and enter the game on the long side.
I wish you a great afternoon,
FE
Hi FE,
The ‘flash crash’ that happened on GBP during the Asia is a symptom of the market sentiment on GBP.
It appears that a few algos are loaded for sells, it going to take a massive shift to change that. Since June 23rd I have to admit that I have never given any thought to where price would reverse, only where it would pause.
The above post was early this morning, BP seems unstable - UK govt minister recently said that too many Business leaders in the UK are too fat and play too much golf on Firdays.
They were blaming fat finger during Asia in a thin market, maybe the same fat fingers were in action before setting off for golf this morning:)
Anyways, all is well for the pound - the BOE are investigating the cause of the selling 
Edit: Btw providers now offering 89.00, not sure how many years added to the 31, wonder will the PM have a think about her comments of no concern made earlier.
Hi Peter,
EURGBP is following your analysis and forecasts, as usually
My question is this time about gold and silver. It seems like I missed something during the week, I was very surprised for the huge sell sentiment. Any ideas what trigerred that move?
Thanks,
FE
Hi FE,
I was totally focused on GBP, so much so that I could sense the chatter about Gold but didn’t even look.
Only now I can delve a little deeper - I was conscious of the talk about ECB taper, Draghi was in a sense hushed, not his usual way, I figured some pressure from the Germans, Weidman’s input maybe weighing heavily.
Anyways, looking back I see that Gold reacted negatively on Oct4, on the same day as the Taper story, the USD was happily rising until the break of the taper story whereas Gold had begun to fall a couple of hours before.
Maybe this analysis has some basis, I see Jack the Pipper here on the home page was calling the fall via GLD which we have spoken about maybe a year ago this thread.
Technicals, Chinese holiday behind much of gold price drop | MINING.com
Hi Peter,
Last week gold was the interesting commodity, this time it is crude oil. From a technical perspective we are in a stronger support and also psychological zone.
From a COT Index perspective we have just arrived to the value of 100%. Based on some earlier knowledge (also from the two books) this looks a very interesting situation.
If price would head down, it would be a further confirmation that the downtrend is still valid. If price and COT Index remains up, like it did some month ago, then at least from a COT perspective we would be looking for buying opportunities in the future.
Any thoughts on that?
Have a nice Sunday,
FE
Yeah, Gold traders seem to be watching the USD, fair chance of more buying on that currency so likely more gold selling.
Oil is interesting, buying right now cannot be construed as bottom picking, the interesting thing is the CRB, just like oil it made a low in Aug past, the final down day was Aug 2nd,
same day as oil.
The next attempt at a low was Sep1 - just lost the remainder of the post, site is unstable.
Oil seems ahead of the curve at present, likely the OPEC effect, an effect unreliable in the past.
Maybe a fakeout on the recent high, then a squabble within OPEC on production
FE, oil has broken the recent high aright, now the question is whether that break will prove to be a fakeout or not.
Will have to break a while now from BP, this Gbp thing needing a lot of attention.
Take care.
It was indeed a fakeout, yet another example of using TA and FA and how they both intertwine.
OPEC are a very difficult group to get to work in harmony, especially so when price is against them, seems Iran and Iraq are being blamed on not agreeing to a production freeze.
But yet there was a clear breakout on price.
Some of the really smart guys, those that hint they have a superior knowledge and think they are an elite thus seldom grace these threads, they say we should never ‘predict’.
The more a trader thinks about price behaviour, the fundamentals, always on the right side of the chart, then the easier it becomes to predict.
Have a good weekend FE.
(btw, GBP still on back foot despite good numbers - never a healthy sign for a currency, prediction: cable will fall off a cliff into the ocean next week :))
lol, you & one or two other fanboys clearly have some weird fascination with the broker guys on 16 candles don’t you.
They don’t have a superior knowledge at all, neither have they ever claimed to be an elite group. They’re just a lot more experienced than you & have been around the block a couple times.
Those comments were directed at them by one of your fellow fanboys during one his comical, emotional meltdowns, something they delight in reminding him of whenever the mood takes them.
They simply encourage interested parties to view the playing field through a different lens by focusing on & implementing a minimalist, low maintenance, totally objective & logical approach to identifying, filtering & executing high probability bets.
I think a more accurate representation of that quote was folks have [I]no need to predict[/I], not that they shouldn’t. If you want or need to predict then knock yourself out mate.
The fact they don’t subscribe to the majority of advice, information & material bandied around this site is to their credit & my benefit as far as I’m concerned, & amply justified judging by the regular tales of woe & despondency regularly witnessed around most of these threads.