I going to wait, the suggestion is that poorer numbers were expected, mind you the gap wasn’t.
May be an attempt to fill that later, I’ll hold fire for next hour and see.
See how no spike, was coming down from the daily pivot (6725) from early this morning.
Hi Mike,
thanks for the info, I signed up too. I hope the email comes in the same minute of the release. NZD/USD is rising sharply, as I see the price report was a disappointment in the last three months. We might see firework in an hour boys and girls!
Hi peterma,
thanks for your updates! I do not cheear so much for a pullback though 
You are both the best with working and not forgetting our thread at the same time! I wish you guys good work and many pips simultaneously!
Hey FE…
You were right I just came across this article looks like the risk is back on.
Merkel to visit Kiev Saturday in clear sign of support for Ukraine - MarketWatch
Merkel to visit Kiev Saturday in clear sign of support for Ukraine.
I’ll stay away from JPY and will observe CHF movement. I’m thinking who should I trade NZD against with besides USD if the dairy bid turns out to be bearish.
Good luck guys!
Hey FE…
I just been wanting to say that you did a good job putting into perspective the CHF and JPY. Good article!
I do agree with that, absolutely. I need to remember the bigger picture when I look closer and find who’s trending. I do remember back in the beginning of the year that the CHF was on a real big roll. When the GBP was very strong also then. I’m sure there was different global things going on at that time also.
Anyway, I just wanted to tell you that.
Good job keeping us thinking!
Mike
An absolute beast of a post! I actually have to say that in the bigger picture I do agree with your views on CHF and JPY actually.
Regarding my AUDCHF and USDCHF trades I also agree. Different people will have different perspectives on different pairs. For example I’m who will look to make money off of reversals. It worked for me in the EURUSD earlier this year and it worked with GBPUSD trade as well. With AUDCHF, that pair should be in favor of AUD (although AUD is not in best shape at the moment). for me AUDCHF Year highs, monthly resistance and commercials buying less and selling more CHF. If there is any trade I’d like to be wrong on, its these kind of trades. Other traders may want to wait for more confirmation(a trend line break for example). Both methods are right if you know the hazards and benefits of each one and accept.
Next week I will be very clear on my trading ideas next time.
Hey guys…
Any updates on dairy bid price ? I’m on the website global dairy trade couldn’t register so far no update :34:. I’m already in with NZDUSD short though USD had somewhat positive at least up to par with expectation releases it isn’t moving much as I anticipated.
Yeah Rookie!
I just can’t find any updates myself. Just haven’t gotten any email alerts or anything.
I’m in on NZD/USD short also. Should be a good day. Looking good so far.
I’ve been trying, on the info, with no luck so far.
?
Hi guys,
thanks the comments.
I am on the website what Mike gave. I clicked on the “Results”. On the middle you see for the last Event August 5: “Duration of Trading Event 1:58 hours”. I never used the site but I guess this means the time that is given for the event is only the beginning of bidding. So we have to wait until the event is ready and only then can they update the news and send the email. Of course I do not know if this is right and also I do not know if they send the email right away or later. However it is a possible reason why we did not recieve any email. Last time it took 2 hours to bid, so if it would be similar then soon there should be a decision.
FE
rookie, USD looks good if dairy price comes out weak. For another possibility I would use Mike’s table as it shows us daily sentiment.
The USDX is at 81.80, it might just find some resistance here, let’s see
Hey guys… FE and Mike
I’ve also looked at duration of trading event the last time it was 2 hours and have thought about that the result should be out in 2 hours or so I think it is, you’re probably right.
While I was keeping a close eye on NZDUSD , EURUSD and AUDUSD has moved down quite a bit not sure if you guys were on it. I’ll stick with NZDUSD for now, I do expect dairy price to be bearish same as or more decline than previous readings. I don’t think there will be much movement upwards as we’ve talked prior supply is increasing while demand decreases. And NZ treasury has already cut down on future economic forecasts could be due to anticipation on further decline in dairy prices.
However, given the positive releases of USD , NZD isn’t moving much as I thought it would. There could be one possibility I’m thinking bears may have already bid down on NZD against USD earlier today or later yesterday I see a huge bearish candle on daily chart. That could explain why we didn’t see a sharp downward move right after the USD data releases.
I’ll keep it going though the news didn’t bring much volatility as I expected it would.
I liked your post by the way FE about your view on JPY and CHF I can’t agree more with you. I’m going to be very cautious with both of them especially on long setups.
Hi Peter,
I like your comments because you bring some colour to thread always with some analysis that we do not follow. Good to know that USD Index reached the high point. As I do not use it often, it gives a good opportunity to learn something about correlations.
On the other side, did you have to upset rookie, Mike and me? We have the farm on the USD at the moment and then you give us such a bearish signal
Have a nice afternoon everyone. I do not know when I will be back. Maybe only late night.
And for our EUR/CHF discussion:
SNB to Cap Franc Until 2016 as Euro-Area Recovery on Hold - Bloomberg
we need follow market. we must take the resistance and supportance. it is important to set TP or SL. with this stategy you will control your order and your money.
Lol, yeah FE, USDX is handy when there are big moves happening with dollar crosses, it has put the brakes on NZD , GBP and Euro, for now anyway.
Now all the contrarians are getting ready to catch this falling knife.
I’m just thinking of Larry Williams where he talked about these old time traders who used to huddle round the ticker watching live prices.
One of them apparently used to say “never catch a falling dagger, instead let it fall, let it quiver in the floor, and only then walk over and lift it carefully”
I’ve grabbed a few of those daggers in my time, and I’ve the marks to prove it
The website has been updated guys dairy price index fell to 875 from 880 -0.6% change from previous readings that came out on Aug 5. I noticed that average winning price decreased to $3,000 from 3,200 something from last time 5 Aug.
It’s going to be a rather slow downward move if its going to keep on dropping kiwi.
Thanks man!!
Appreciate the info!
I’m on the ride down.
Hi Team,
rookie,
thanks for the prices, great! We have to see though that the last falls were a lot more significant than this time in dairy prices. And I do not know anything about dairy products but I assume prices can not fall 10% monthly until eternity. So we have to watch out for that one. Still, until it falls it is bearish for the NZD economy that is for sure.
peterma,
great point, there was no reversal for USD basically, it was falling and falling. We shouldn’t be greedy and have tight stop losses. I anticipate a bigger reversal as the wins were coming basically continually for USD and there has to be a stop. It would be great if sometimes you can post your thoughts when your indicators give you the reversal signal.
And to everyone,
looking at the posts today, it was a good teamwork and great running for everyone! I do think we all had a great day! We have to manage the trades and do not get greedy. I share you my best winning strategy from the last weeks! Here is the secret: [I]I make the most money during sleeping or when I am not at home.[/I] I just set my targets, do not look at computer and close the trades too early. Just let it run and when I get home I like to see the green colors. Hopefully it will work further on.
[I]Keep up the hard but good working guys. I think we all have learned and it was proved today, look at every currency itself not the pairs, and when we understand the story, then find the right pair and grab the pips.[/I]
Good luck for every one of you out there!
PS: Mike, looking at the charts I will not be surprised on your list tomorrow. Let me guss: 1. USD However who knows what happens until your market close time!
Yes FE! Very well put! (look at the currencies themselves more than the pair)
Let’s stay smart.
Mike
Edit—I meant to say “lets be smart about it”.
Big brother is watching…(Peter)
Hey guys…
FE you’re right though the reading came out lower than previous it wasn’t as bad as last time which dropped by some -8.6% still it’s a bearish reading. I’m out already with +25pips not much but I had to be cautious like I was saying the bears might already have betted down NZ against US earlier in the session even prior the outcome and Peterma noted that Dollar index was reaching a critical point resistance. On NZDUSD daily chart at around 0.8394 there’s major support level. Its going to take a lot of force it break it through. I think. Lets say it breaks. I think it will sometime in the future. There’s going to be a correction or reversals Dollar has enjoyed its ride and I agree with both of you Peterma and FE there might be some reversals coming in. I had to be out. You’re right FE can’t be too greedy in this game. I’ll sit aside and see what happens for now.
I missed RBA Stevens speech live but I’m reading it now on their website, I was thinking if it turns out to be rosy AUD might pick up some pips against USD but clearly it isn’t and I might have been late.
So for today we’ve got BOE minutes, rake hike cut or unchanged votes in the picture later in during the day. Some movements on GBP pairs will be the highlight of the trading day. I think. Which pairs are you looking to trade guys ? I haven’t decided yet. I have to think.
Thanks for the word of encouragement FE. We’ve come quite far. I like this way of monitoring our trades, progress.
PS: Haha Mike! Yeah we’ve got to be smart about it. Big brother is watching 