Hi FE,
Ah, lol ok. It’s called Currency Slope Strength. I found it in stevehopwoodforex.com.
Hey flow…FE…
All that I do is original. Just every day I have stats on the currencies, mainly who’s up and down against who. That will be the top 8 economies. Total of 56 pairs. 28 separate ones. Also I keep track of each pair about trending. Either it will be trending high, low, or ranging.
So, it’s all just my thing. I’m sure there are those out there who have figured out an easier method, and the likes of what you have there.
FE…your funny! “destroy me”
Stick around flows, you can definitely learn something in here. We all seem to have our heads on right. And I feel real good about my comrades. Lots of smarts…determination…fortitude.
We’re serious.
We WILL get there.
Mike
Hi Mike,
I see. Yep, I’ll definitely stick around. I’ve learned how useful COT analysis can be during my relatively short stay here. It helps me to see the sentiment change in cable and trade accordingly. Best of luck to all you guys.
Cheers,
Well, I took myself out of the three trades I took after Fed minutes for a loss of 200 pips. A for effort though lol.
Why is AUD so strong? even USD can’t really take it down.
you need 20 posts to send private e-mails, which is what I was trying to send Rookie. I’m don’t know how you post photos actually
Here is a good article about GBP from Cyclopip:
Going Long GBP/CHF for Long-Term | Forex Blog: Currency Cross-Eyed
I do suggest it to read for some reason (it is not the trade setup why I like it):
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he does mention that GBP is losing ground now, but it is still one of the best performing economies so when the rate hike disappointment is over then GBP can gain against some of the currencies again. I am not saying to go long with GBP/USD but we can maybe find some currencies (for example NZD) where there might be waiting some good setups for us!
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the article shows again that we have to think on the currencies itself and find the right counterparts. GBP is not that easy to find countercurrencies as it is not the weakest but not the strongest so we really have to find the right currency to match it with (with USD no one could have made a mistake in the last days)
So, good reading and be flexible forex traders. Think about the possibilities that GBP might give to us after such a pullback!
PS: Philip, sorry for the losses. If it helps a bit, you deserve the question of the award with asking why AUD is strong. Actually Comms are running not so good and in the RBA it was mentioned that AUD too strong is and they tried to jawbone it down. Hmmm… that is the only USD pair that I could not close with a nice profit until this time.
Hi guys!
Here we go. Interesting!
USD: +6 -0 1
AUD: +5 -0 2
GBP: +5 -1 1
CAD: +3 -4 0
CHF: +2 -3 2
EUR: +2 -4 1
NZD: +1 -5 1
JPY: 0 -7 0
Well guys…look at that up there. We have an even score. 0. Majors = +15 and -15. Comms = +9 and -9.
Here is the new method. I need to call it something. FE…come up with something.:45:
USD: +2 -0 1
AUD: +3 -0 2
GBP: +2 -0 1
CAD: +2 -3 0
CHF: +1 -1 0
EUR: +1 -2 0
NZD: +1 -3 1
JPY: +0 -3 0
So, if we add these up we have: Majors = +6 and -6 equals 0. Comms = +6 and -6 equals 0.
It is a wash.
As it looks, USD is dominating the Majors. AUD is dominating the Comms. JPY was taken advantage by everyone today. NZD was same thing, but up against JPY and even against CHF. So, I guess all we need to do is look at the pair AUD/USD. That should tell the tale. Actually the USD was higher only by 9 pips, open to close at 00GMT candles. Ok, the edge goes to Majors technically.
Well, guys, I’m having quite a week. I have 6 pairs open for USD. Only one I don’t have open is against GBP. I’m scared of that one. And the only other pair in the portfolio I do have going is the GBP/CAD. Loosing some, yes, but, that’s for the long haul. (till it gets up to the top).
I hate to say it but I’m at +250 pips now. BUT…only small position sizes on them. All of them is 1k lots, except with NZD, I added yesterday and have 4k on them. I’ll start putting up some stop losses in place, take profits it should be. (FE…believe me I realize what no stop losses means…protecting the account, the most important rule)
Ok guys, we’ll talk in the a.m. Except for Rookie. I’ll talk to him in the evening time. :44:
Mike
Morning guys!
[B]FE… [/B]I actually came across the article on Russia/Ukraine yesterday but couldn’t really read it through as it was pretty long. But I will later today.
I know exactly what you mean by that now that you only pull the trigger if the fundamental aligns with sentiment or else you would much prefer to sit aside.
I think I’m finally reaching a point where I’m able to see the bigger picture by combining it all together fundamentals and market sentiment along with Mike’s stats. I’m sure you already are there. But I was late to this trading with market sentiment. So you’ll see me posting more on fundamentals from now on as I realize the importance of this. It was tough for me to get a hang on this but I am getting there slowly. Thats partly your contribution FE thanks! Learning much lately.
I’m planning on writing up a report on majors and commdolls , looking at their invidual economies rather than focusing on a pair. That was a great point FE! We’ve had much this week RBA , FOMC minutes , Jackson hole from this thursday through Saturday, BOE minutes and so on. One thing that I’ve realized at this point is that at the end it’s all about interest rate to simplify. Thats what specs are after. Bottom line. The economic indicators that create volatility are part of the measures if Central banks of each of theirs decide if they should raise cut or keep the interest rate unchanged. Now I realize we can get a clue from key indicators how each currency’s doing and thus will hint if there’s going to be a rate or cut in the future. While interest rate cut translates to economy slowing down interest rate increase signals the opposite. Plus investors shift their assets where there’s a high yield - a currency that offers a higher interest rate.
On top of that we’ve got correlation going on. CRB and Dollar Index Peterma posted a great post earlier. How they are inversely correlated. Risk aversion. By knowing all this. Having the bigger picture and using COT specs data as a guide if everything aligns together thats an edge , an unbeatable edge I think.
I’m learning to see the bigger picture. Now I realize why most of the biggest names in this industry focus on fundamental rather than technical aspects.
It’s good to sit aside , observe and think it through when things seems uncertain FE especially if your fundamental and sentiment don’t align. Learning not to trade is harder than placing many trades actually. Like I said I would much rather sit aside this week as there will be jackson hole until through Saturday - I read its held once a year so whatever that they may discuss at jackson hole must be taken seriously. Thus I’m cautious to make any moves this week anymore.
By applying all this as time goes on as I get better at this, I should be able to hold trades longer. Feel at ease. Obviously I need to constanly monitor my trades. As we’re putting all this work into this I wanted to aim higher FE… you see there’s bunch out here on these forums looking for systems that will produce 2o pips a day or 100 pips a week. And I think these systems exist. These guys arent doing much but still able to profit about the same or much more pips than I do. That was my point. Then whats the use for doing all this , i should aim higher - hold trades longer.
[B]Mike…[/B] I applaud your confidence. I wouldn’t have been able to hold my trades through FOMC minutes and jacksons hole summit and BOE, RBA minutes. So much to pick up from you guys. I’m thinking of going long term lately. And if you read what I wrote above a response to FE I think this should give us an edge to hold trades in a longer term. Combining it all together and monitoring any changes on a weekly to daily basis with stop losses in place obviously. You just never know. But as I am slowing realizing the importance of fundamental and sentiment we might just be able to predict further ahead. We can play an analyst/economist of our own. We keep doing what we’re doing now and I think we will get there.
Look out for AUD and JPY Mike. Both had just published positive data. I will go in that later during the weekend on my report.
See you guys around !
I do think you should put some stop losses (or just cover your position and keep them running). 250 pips is a good return, well done.
On your Comms vs Majors meter I was wondering if you could also start compiling the data for the longer run (I’m willing to help if its too much work). You already do the sentiment for the day and the week. But how about compiling the weekly ones you do and make a monthly sentiment and then a quarterly sentiment.
My thinking behind this is that your sentiment should, at some point, be very similar to the strength of the currencies in the COT report. If that is the case then we can use it for confirmation of our set-ups, finding longer-term opportunities, and trying to confirm potential reversals if we find divergences in your report and the CFTC. Am I making any sense?
Hey guys again…
Yellen To Focus On Labor Market At Jackson Hole; Dovish Talk May Lift Gold - Forbes
I did some reading on FOMC minutes and Jackson Hole symposium this morning. And here’s what I found.
In summary at FOMC meeting majority of the members were inclined to increase the interest rate. At Jackson hole symposium Yellen focuses on labor market.
“Many economists said they don’t expect much deviation from her past comments about her concern regarding employment conditions in the U.S., including underemployment and sluggish wage growth.”
“She still views that there might be labor market slack and (is) looking at the broader measures, rather than the actual underlying employment rate. We expect her to be consistent with that,” said Michael Wallace, global market strategist, Action Economics.”
Let’s look back at few indicators that we’ve had this week I’ll try to work on more on my report that I will start from this week and onwards.
Better: NAHB Housing market index — 55/actual/ 53/consensus/ 53/previous/
Building permit MoM — 1.5M/actual/ 1M/consensus/ 0.96M/previous/
Housing starts MoM — 1.09M/actual/ 0.97M/consensus/ 0.94M/previous/
Worse: CPI ex food & energy MoM — 0.1%/actual/ 0.2%/consensus/ 0.1%/previous/
Same: CPI YoY — 2%/actual/ 2%/consensus/ 2.1%/previous/
CPI ex food & energy YoY — 1.9%/actual/ 1.9%/consensus/ 1.9%/previous/
If we look at both CPI YoY so far its coming out just as forecast we don’t see any sign of inflation. Quote Michael Wallace Yellen is looking at the broader measures, rather than the actual underlying employment rate. While majority of the FOMC members were in for an earlier rate hike, if you read the whole article it says not every FOMC member attends Jackson hole symposium but only a select few goes there - the most influential attends this event.
What they’re most concerned at this point is sluggish wage growth low personal consumption. Until this measures pick up much like what BOE minutes had experts believe the rate hike will be later than sooner.
We’ve got few data releases tonight later during NY session. But i don’t think that will change much of Yellens position.
If indicators that are due during NY session turns out to be bullish for USD whether or not Fed decides to increase the rate sooner than later I think we’ll expect to see major moves once again I think. Hang in there Mike! You’ve got it.
NZ Consumer confidence lowers and credit card spending rises at a slower rate. Looks bearish to me especially after low dairy price and cut in key forecasts. I’m looking at pairs to ride NZD down with long term , USD GBP comes to mind for now.
[B]FE…[/B] I looked at GBPNZD setup that you suggested to ride NZD down with longer term. i like the setup , fundamental and sentiment just seems to support that. However what I’m concerned with is that Eurozone is very sluggish now with euro weaking even further and is the biggest trade partner to UK. I wonder if Eurozone will hinder UK’s recovery.
See you around guys in the morning /at your time zones evening for me/
Hey Philip!
Thats a good idea. What you’ve suggested sure makes sense to me. I’m not good with numbers I’ve yet to really understand how Mike calculates his stats as I usually look at the rates, from top to the bottom. I need to sit down one day and work on how he comes up with his stats /we all do know it is very useful I need to know how/
I’m interested to see how all that will come out compiling the numbers quarterly and yearly. Its going to be interesting.
Good morning guys! Evening Rookie!
I have to say Rookie that you are doing a fabulous job giving us the scoop fundamentally! I appreciate that a lot!
I don’t have much time at the moment, waiting for GBP news in a couple minutes.
Oh don’t worry Philip, I have all that data M/C from the start of the year. Tell me what exactly you want and I will put it up.
Oh, and another thing guys, I do have all stop losses in. Added some position size to JPY also.
See you shortly.
Mike
Well you’ve got some slightly bearish news for GBP.
I actually wanted the stats for the future rather to annoy you with compiling that from this year. What I was thinking is may be doing a similar calculation but for the entire month. The top performing currencies for the month and for the quarter.
Hi US Department (Mike, rookie and Philip),
took at least an hour to read everything! Glad it is all for you guys. So I wrote down everything I have to comment. I write this post as a usual answer and then I make another post for EA system trading as rookie addressed it more times so I rather post it independent. Here are the different issues regarding to all the post you guys were writing:
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[B]GBP/NZD[/B]: I just had a thought about it rookie. Honostly, I haven’t even looked at the charts. I read all posts on babypips and I liked this one a lot from Cyclopip as it reminded me to be flexible and to think about the fact that UK economy is not doing bad. It is a disappointment with rate hike for sure but it would be very early to say they have economic slowdown or problem. Of course as you say, slower EUR economy is also not so good for UK but for some reason they were still growing last year when EUR had struggles. I think it has a lot to do that UK is an independent country and its main trading partners are USA, GER and FR. So looking at these countries, USA and GER are doing quite ok, and EUR is running bad mostly because of southern countries like Spain, especially Italy, Greece, Portugal etc. So EUR is difficult of course to evluate altogether but UK trades mostly with the stronger counterparts and even if GER is strong it has a weak currency as it cannot pull the EUR high up and compensate for the other EU 26 countries (or the other 16 EUR countries). So, I do not know if I trade long GBP but I found it a topic to think about.
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[B]AUD pairs[/B]. Finally AUD got also brokern and hit take profits. Woohooo. I have to say though AUD is on the way back up so it might be only temporary. From where does this strength come? Despite weak Chinese data…
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[B]Pause for USD?[/B] Interesting question but EUR data came out mixed and GBP negative, still USD could not react on them as strong as earlier. Is the expected retracement in play now? Or just a bit of break?
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[B]Stop loss[/B]. I really do not want you guys to think I am anti-Philip, it is just the last couple of days when I have a different point of view (sorry Philip). This time it is the stop loss. It is about the 250 pip stop loss you suggested to Mike. Reading books, babypip blog posts, internet sites etc. I find something very very interesting: [I]we all talk about strategy, discuss fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals and I still think most people just make meaningless stop losses[/I]. Would be great to hear [I][B]peterma[/B][/I]'s opinion on this. Even experienced traders who make the blogs like Cyclopip, Pipcrawler, Huck etc. make such stop losses. I do not get it. Example: you enter short EUR/USD lets say 1.3211. 250 pip stop loss is: 1.3461. Now tell me, why should the price turn there? Why not at 1.3441 or at 1.3471? I just do not think these kind of stop losses help. At 1.3461 there is no reason to have a stop loss. If it is not a resistance, support, Fib or Moving Average level then price most likely will not stop there. So in this example I would even put my stop loss lower at 1.3410, above major resistance level or at 1.3510 above another major resistance level. That makes either a 199 or a 299 pips stop loss. Yes, it is not as a nice round number like 100 or 250 pips stop loss but makes for me more sense.
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looking at rookie’s posts, question of the day: [I]How many hours does rookie sleep?[/I] A: 0, B: 1, C: 2, or D: 3.
Comes the next post on EA system trading
Hey guys!
Well the GBP came out with not so good news. (Wish I were as smart as Rookie and could explain the details, BUT CANT). So, that made me FINALLY take out my one bad trade GBP/CAD. I lost…-61.1 pips.
It’s ok. All my other trades are doing awesome. I have 6 USD ones going, (all except GBP).
Rookie…your such a good contributor for the info that we need here! All your work doesn’t go unnoticed. Remember that. You know what I want to be when I grow up? This has been my dream for a while now. I want to be a macro economist. And that’s precisely what you’ve been talking about. I have bought books (a college one also) on the subject. But just haven’t been able to read it, study it, digest it. I’ve been so preoccupied with getting my trading plans all in place. You know, market analyzing, running the numbers, our reports, etc…
So now, here you come, catching that bug also, and reporting like an economist. Man, I just love to hear what you have read and able to convey that to us. Just keep it up and over time WE all will become more and more like a macro economist. It’s like being sculpted into what we want to become. It’ll all take shape the longer we immerse ourselves into it.
Just look at our smart one Peter…He’s been doing this a very long time. It’s just all about the insight. The longer we explore what’s really going on in the market, the more insight we will obtain. And the one thing that I’ve learned from him lately is we need to know the NOW, learn from the past, and don’t predict the future.
FE…and to you…your my hero. I appreciate ALL the work you do in here. You started this thread and have definitely been upholding it very well! This has been my favorite thread to date. Cause we are talking about the big picture. That’s what I’m all about. Not only in the forex but life. I always put things into perspective no matter what the subject matter is.
Philip…I’m so glad your in with the team! Your another one that I feel has a good head on his shoulders.
You know, whether I win or lose in the market, this will be the most interesting stuff in the world to me. And I’m in it to the end.
Let’s pace ourselves. We have a long road ahead of us.
(ok, enough of that mushy stuff)
Let’s talk business!
Mike
Rookie mentioned systems lately so some thoughts about. It is no strategy and also not a suggestion to use it or not. Only what I do think about it.
As I am a big babypips blog fan, I bring many examples from there.
Searching for the right trading system, it makes sense to read the weekly posts of Robopip. He makes good comparisons, analysis and backtests to see how different systems work. If you would like to try some or get ideas it is a great tool.
I read about quite many systems already and have two favorites:
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The Cowabunga System. Unfortunately Pip Surfer is not so active now but his system is good defined and you find many answers in his Q&A. This is a simple system and I like it because it take the longer-term trend into consideration.
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The AmazingCrossOver System from the forums, analysed by Robopip. The system has little risk but a great winning trades % with good risk/reward ratio.
So I can suggest these two in case you are searching for some.
On the other side why don’t I like EA and why do I like rather a system like Cowabunga where he has a system but looks first long-term view and enters the trades only to the direction of the trend? (this is actually the same as what I do)
Well here is a negative example of EA from Huck, her post from today:
HLHB System Update (August 4 - 8, 2014)
Actually I write negative but I do believe her system works in long-term. So why don’t I like the system as much as Pip Surfer’s? Look at the EUR/USD and GBP/USD trade results! She trades both directions. Now if you take out the EUR/USD long and GBP/USD long results it would produce a lot better result. It is only a one week graph but I do believe in long-term it is something similar. I would not enter long trades, only the direction of my bias, so shorts only. Most EAs do enter trades in both directions and then you get these mixed results. The Cowabunga System is good because he looks first the direction of the trend every day and then looks trading opportunities only to the direction of the trend. I like this methodology. But for something like that you have to pull the trigger and no fully computerized EA. Pip Surfer even pays attention not to trade before news events for GBP and USD (he trades GBP/USD only) which is again something that a computer can not really do. Or at least you have to type every week in the program when are the exact events when it should not trade…
So, if you want to try, Cowabunga System looks good and you do all this here is to decide the right direction, giving you some edge against other people who try to rund against the wind.
Ok Philip!
You got it. Give me this weekend, and I’ll give out the monthly running stats as well as quarterly. So when I give out the daily and weekly stats, I’ll have the monthly, quarterly showing also.
I’ll even throw in what’s gonna happen in the future! …ha ha ha.
Yep, I read ya loud and clear!
Good thinking.
Mike
Hey FE…did you read MG’s thread?
Real curious of what you think.
Be back in an hour.
Mike
Hey Mike,
thanks for the posts. Great that you like the thread and have good feeling about it. Actually I was not surprised when you wrote it was your favorite thread. It would have been more surprising if you wrote it was your number 5 favorite thread becuase it would make us think “Gush, how much is he working then on the other threads???” 
I start very soon the MG thread to read.
At this time I am hesitant what to do on the market. I think I will have another learning day and stay away from the market. Or I might trade the news in 2 hours but I do not expect a big movement if it comes out positive. Maybe if it comes out negative that would give some short term volatility after the recent huge gains. Anyway tomorrow starts the “Ski holiday” for the big ones (although I do not know if they ski there summer too or not) so I guess tomorrow will be quiet while everyone ill wait for the news there.
Mike, now go and work a bit at your company and don’t let them fire you
Hey FE…
I’m not a salesman (in fact I hate salesman, bull**iters). But, hmmm, let’s see, I really really am curious of your thoughts on MG’s thread. I just cannot wait to get your take on his whole market outlook, and style of trading. I will be waiting. Cause I have a good idea of your trading style. I think you will very much take away some really good stuff from his view.
PS…your funny. My work needs me more than I need them. I (almost every day) always tell them…“you guys are gonna miss me”. Cause they know my future. I tell them. And it isn’t gonna be turning wrenches for the next 20 years of my life. My future is having my own business. (In this market) And there isn’t a day that goes by that I’m not working on that. Also there’s not a soul alive that can prevent this from happening. Let’s see…I have 1,231 days left.
It’s all good FE!
I’m always taking care of business.
Mike