Hey guys.
Check this out. Hope you can read this.
Main Economic Indicators, Volume 2014 Issue 8 - Statistics - OECD iLibrary
Click the read button in the middle. To the right of the pdf button.
Compare the gdp’s, interesting! Actually you can compare all the economic indicators with our economies.
I get this monthly publication from OECD.
This stuff is rich.
Rookie! Enjoy buddy!
Mike
Ok so this is interesting.
GDP—1st quarter of this year.
AUD-111.3
NZD-109.0
CAD-107.8
USD-107.1
CHF-105.9
GBP-105.1
JPY-104.6
EUR-101.1
The way I understand the numbers is 100 is the baseline for everyone.
Isn’t that something that we have all the Comms up on top. And USD is the strongest Major.
Very interesting. Does that correlate to the long term currencies strength? It sure does seem like it.
What do you guys think?
Mike
I’m not sure I understand what the numbers mean. Walk us through it please.
Hi Philip,
did you actually checked it and saw it? Or just do not understand why is it like this? Becuase I also find it strange and do not know why. Yes, your barchart site has the same graph as oanda. So on timingcharts I do not know how to read the daily chart…
Yes I did check it. I would stay clear of Timing chart if I was you. You can set the timingchart to weekly bars, no?
Hi Mike,
if you start to work with this site and the site Philip linked then you are lost.
I agree with Philip, some introduction would be good as the site has very many pdf data and I do not know how many do you look at.
Your ranking looks great, however I think it only confirms past price action. We can only understand from it what already happened, I do not know if it helps to tell the future. Comms were really on the top earlier but now losing big time. USD is however not on the top. I mean these are not surprises knowing the history, just to say they would not help at this time. The big surprise for me that GBP ranks 6th, although their economy was doing great in the beginning of the year.
Interesting.
[B]FE… [/B]I’ll take a look at the link and will get back on that with you later probably in the evening /your timezone/ and tomorrow early morning /my timezone/. I’ve actually stumbled upon that website in the past when I was going through a similar thread like ours ‘kind of’ he was referring to this specific website for his extremes. If there’s error on correlation between the two oanda and that for one its the other website. Oanda is reliable I think they source their data directly from CTFC website. Your criticism is always welcome FE. I see you more of a mentor. I’ve improved much you know I had no clue about all this when I first posted a comment here. And you’re right I was careful not to make any error been working on that the whole day. But you’ve got me FE!
[B]Mike…[/B] Interesting so far. Compilation. I’m thinking there must be a pattern in trends and majors v comms split. It can’t be totally random. Just like golden ratio. I know you’re not big on fibs. But you see what I mean. I think you’re on the same page with in that regard as you mentioned earlier in your post its about time for USD to trend through to the end of this year as GBP already had its turn and was already getting overvalued. Commdolls already had their turns as regards to majors v commdolls , as for majors GBP already went for a first runner trending higher against majority and now the only one who has the most potential to be a first runner against the majority , everything pretty much points to USD. I agree on that 100%. We’ll have to see though.
[B]Philip… [/B] I think I’m finally getting to interpret commercials data and learning to blend commercials and non commercials data. You mentioned in your analysis that commercials hold more than 50% on CHF, JPY and EUR. You further on mentioned that they were about at the extreme. So your reasoning behind going long on CHF is since commercials have already acquired more than 50% on CHF usually is the highest that they’d go they will soon in the near future expect to sell off during rallies. So you’re buying it low in anticipation of selling it high. Blending in with the commercials ? Am I getting it right ? Well if thats your reasoning, and if you’re timing is right :35:. But like you said commercials got deep pockets we really have fine tune in with them looking at non commercials may not give you that much of a clue as they usually hold on to their position during reversals. I’d like to know how do you come up with % though, how far do you go back a quarter , 6 months or a year?
Rookie that’s exactly right. You are also spot on in your criticism of my method in that commercials have deep pockets and the timing of the entry is usually off the mark. I try to counter that by using technical analysis for entry and keeping a very tight money management policy (not tight stops, tight money management :D)
Here is the formula for the %, it is available on the Larry Williams book FE is reading. [B]COT index = ((current weekly net position-lowest weekly net in x period)/(highest weekly net in x period- lowest weekly net in x period))*100.[/B]
X period is preferably three years like FE suggested. Buy I use the last 6 years as I like to rely on the financial crisis as my reference.
If you can teach me how to post pictures on the forum I can also upload my spreadsheet which also includes the data for small traders (who we can use to fade).
Yeah I read about that how you get in with small lots and gradually increase as it goes your direction. I need to practice doing that. Milk as much as I can from winning trades and keep your losses minimal from losing trades.
There’s small bar to your upper right you see an image of tree if you bring your cursor over it says insert image click on that and you can upload JPG images. Hope that helps ! We need your spreadsheet 
But how do I turn my spreadsheet into Jpg format?
You can take a screenshot or your there’s a program online where you can convert excel files into jpg images. Save your excel file save as pdf.
Hey guys.
Well, I’m having a time trying to figure out which way to trade this week. That’s the thing, it seems like we (I) trade only on a weekly basis, regroup on the weekends and do it again. Long term? What’s that? Maybe I just can’t do it. I do have some USD ones going over the weekend now, but I’m just always reconfiguring it all.
So, I’ve been trying this morning to come up with something. I’ll start of this way. Live and learn. I’m gonna post up what I did last week and see where I went wrong. Maybe you all can throw in your comments also.
Hey guys.
Well, slow Monday.
FE…I would absolutely love to delve into calculating the metal industry. I just don’t have any time. It’s tough when I have a full time job. I’m squeezed as it is already with what I do. Sorry!
I’ll tell you what I got going with the trades. I put these in this morning. And their for the week, at least.
AUD/USD—south.
NZD/USD—south.
GBP/AUD—north.
GBP/CAD—north.
AUD/CHF—south.
NZD/CHF—south.
There’s so much technicals confirming these ones. And you can see that in the big picture I’m favoring the Majors this week. Last week was the Comms. This week I feel it will go to the Majors. So much data coming out for the Majors this week, I just hope that it agrees with my sentiments. I will jump out if it doesn’t.
Read more: 301 Moved Permanently
Well, guys, I’m having quite a week. I have 6 pairs open for USD. Only one I don’t have open is against GBP. I’m scared of that one. And the only other pair in the portfolio I do have going is the GBP/CAD. Loosing some, yes, but, that’s for the long haul. (till it gets up to the top).
I hate to say it but I’m at +250 pips now. BUT…only small position sizes on them. All of them is 1k lots, except with NZD, I added yesterday and have 4k on them. I’ll start putting up some stop losses in place, take profits it should be. (FE…believe me I realize what no stop losses means…protecting the account, the most important rule)
Read more: 301 Moved Permanently
So, there is a couple quotes from last week. The first one was on Monday when I gave out what I was trading in the beginning of the week. Then the other one was on Wednesday. Yep, things changed.
I was wrong at the start. GBP did not go north. CHF did not go south. Majors did not take it this week. The only one I got right was NZD/USD. Then yeah, on Wednesday I was up 250. But it didn’t turn out that way. (once again here I am always thinking I just should have taken profits) .
This is how I ended the week.
+7.7 pips and +2.4 %
I was also wrong that I thought all the data coming out was gonna be positive for Majors.
If I would’ve taken profit (at the 250 point), I would come out at 8.0%.
Now what.
I’m torn between hanging onto USD for long term. But against who? See, last week I had it in mind to pair Majors against Comms. And I did. And I lost. Because see it was the one and only strong Major (USD) paired to the other Majors that did the most good, not against the Comms. So…maybe I shouldn’t stick with that notion. Yes, the USD was strong, and they are a Major. But that was the only one. The Comms were (as a team) the strongest. I guess that’s the heart of my problem, I was on the wrong side of the final outcome. But I did make it at the half way point of the week with the USD. And that was with them to the other Majors.
I do think you guys were right with the Comms last week right?
I’m just trying to learn from my mistakes guys. Thanks for letting me vent here.
Now…what am I going to do?
I have to agree with you all on the bias going to the Comms coming up this week.
I wrote this down in my notes also.
There are categories I need to separate within my portfolio.
I’m thinking strongest to go to USD.
I’m thinking JPY weakest.
I’m thinking Comms over Majors. Finish with a 3 in a row.
And you see there above the 4 technicals.
I’ll keep you informed of what I’m gonna do.
Got to run.
Be in touch later.
Mike
Well Mike if you’re looking for some direction for next week all I can do is summarize what our discussions have been. I think Rookie, FE and I agree that Australian Dollar and US dollar are strongest. Yen is showing weakness. You seem to agree with that yet your analysis of the pairs seem to contradict your bias.
If you know that USDCHF is at a monthly resistance, why are you looking at this pair. Look at cleaner ones like USDJPY for example. Plus USDCHF could break that high and present a breakout buying opportunity. I sense you are not being patient with your choices and I urge you to be so, so that you can make the right decisions. Just watch the market on Monday before jumping into any trade.
You think JPY is the weakest yet you have not considered selling it. You think that the USD is the strongest currency yet you are wary of a turn around? how come? You should just have a plan, if the pair does pull back I’ll buy it here and if it breaks out I’ll buy it there. There should be no “turn around” since you have done your research (and you do a great job at that) and know USD is stronger. Don’t doubt your analysis because you made a couple of wrong decisions the last time. You will make countless mistakes in the future and its part of trading. Just make sure you are managing your risk and are consistent with your trading method.
EUR/AUD is at a major support level, yearly low. Have a plan of where to buy it on a breakout of that support, a plan to buy if it pulls back and then let the market do its thing and take the trade accordingly.
I also think you should take today off and get your mind off FX. You are stressing out over nothing you are doing great. I know you like the MG guy and he always talks about leaving some pips out of his profits. You made money at the end of the week, that’s good and if you keep going you will reach your goal.
Hi Mike,
I do not have to write much as Philip basically covered all my thoughts. I also think that you make countless analysis and great charts but do not act accordingly. I think it influences you too much what is on your daily charts stays. I like your analysis becuase it is a good sentiment indicator but you change your mind just to soon. Even if we know JPY or NZD is weak, they cannot be every day on the bottom of the ranking because that is how this game is. They will still win days, but that does not mean too much. You however just your mind right away when these weak currencies have some win. Just do what Philip wrote: decide for some pair or currencies. You think USD strongest. Then concentrate on that trade. But not with selling it! Either buy it or if there is a pullback buy it that time. Look for the right moment.
I think however there is only 1 point I can add besides what Philip mentioned. Lot size or the number of trades are too much for you. 250 pips should not be 8.0% of your account. And do not be so sad about not closing the trades. As far as your bias was right it was good not to close them because you had a good chance to make even more. If you made a mistake that is another case and should have closed.
Hi Team,
in the last hours I was thinking of the past, present and future of this thread.
I think we reached quite a lot in a short time and are on the right path to “get there”.
I also think that it is the time to maybe remind all of us (myself as well) to stay focused on our main goals. If I like something from MG thread it is to “keep it simple”.
I am a bit worried that we start overcomplicating things. As Mike wrote about metals, I fully understand you not analysing it, and already wrote it earlier that I find it too much for you. If we get an extra person on board, maybe he/she could do it. It is a marathon and it brings us nothing when we are burned out after 2 months.
For this reason I would ask us to concentrate mostly on COT and the signals and the trades what are based on different sentiment (intermarket analysis I think belong to this thread though).
Both Mike and Philip posted some new tools today. I checked both of them. I find them good. I have to say though that it is just too much for me. I already - just like Mike - spend all my time to learn forex and hours of work /day on the forum.
I also do not have 40 hours a day. So instead of being a bit of good everywhere, I try to be a professional/master/expert (take the word you like the most) in one field. I do believe that it brings us all further on.
As I said, I like the tools but I would ask Philip and Mike to follow them and share the findings when you see something unexpected. I cannot manage more indicators and tools.
I think we should concentrate guys to put great and high quality in this thread further on because that brought us quite far in a short-time. The key to success is hard and concentrated work. As soon as we see that we understand everything better, make a lot of pips, then it will be the right time to make some fine tuning and maybe add some new tools to our arsenal.
I am waiting for the answers and everyone should take some hours off until at least market opening! 
I’m happy to look at the seasonal tool. I’d probably update you at the beginning of each month what seasonality is like for each currency. Possibly also if there is a particular pair that makes a lot of pips during that month.
Here is a good site for gaining good stats:
TRADING ECONOMICS | 300.000 INDICATORS FROM 196 COUNTRIES
On Ukraine/Russia, Tuesday is a big day, Germany is taking the lead for EU (good thing since Germany is one of Russia’s largest customers of their energy).
The Head of States talks are the consequence of last week’s meeting of the Foreign Ministers, so setting aside the rhetoric and this weekend’s posturing by both sides, the path to possible peace continues.
Thanks for sharing! It is an awesome site with basically all important information together! I bookmarked it so when I need it then I just have to look it all up! Just awesome to compare the hard facts of different economies.
PS: does anyone have any idea on Jackson Hole? It was shown as the big marketmover and testimony event and I do not see any article or important news about it.
Wow. I second that FE!
What a table!
Thanks Peter!!!
I’m coming back with some words for all you guys.
Hi guys!
Before going to sleep just the first thoughts on market opening. I do not know of course how AUD trades work out but it made sense to open the trades Friday night. AUD jumped more than 40 pips on weekend gap vs. NZD, 15 pips vs. EUR and stayed on market vs. CAD.
NZD got a lot weaker!
Have a great week everyone and good night!