Hey guys.
I found a good article. It was dated on Monday. But is very interesting what his take is on ALL the things going on fundamentally. (Rookie, you might like this)
Russia & China Add To Their Gold Reserves!
Iāve already got it thanks anyway flows! Iām working on an excel sheet basically copying what you have done , I find its a lot easier to spot any changes or divergences that way for better comparison.
Thanks Mike Iāll read the article ! I was thinking something on gold but havenāt been able to post a write up on gold but I probably will soon tomorrow maybeā¦
Hey guys!
Well, heās an update on those trades. Itās exactly 1100GMT now.
GBP/NZDā+159
GBP/CHFā+86
GBP/JPYā+19
Killing it!
Oh, and my USD/CAD tradeā+102
Man do I love to see this demo account on the up!
Thanks Philip!!
Flows,
great that you are here again and test the system. We are waiting for your findings!
Philip,
I am interested about your new method. I like your technique that it is based on the bias of currencies. Now my problem is the volatility stop part. I do not know this one, never used it and also my broker seems does not have it. The description is great, and you even added pictures to it. That is good news. The description is clear and I like that. There is no points where it is misleading. After looking at your trades I still have a question so I have to disappoint you. Without a question you have entered the trades at about the best times. Reading the rules I would have entered it in a worse time, maybe you can highlight what I was missing. The first trade was clear, you waited until the opposite side of the volatility stop and entered the extreme in your bias direction. The second is not clear however. Based on the rules I would have entered 1 candle earlier, or at the top of the red candle where your vertical line is. You entered on the bottom of it. I do not get this one. A candle earlier we already had the volatility indicator and it was also crossing already into the oversold territory so I think it was a valid signal. Can you tell me what did I forget? I see now rookie already asked the volatility indicator problem (that he does not have it). Is it possible that I do not have it on MT4 and also not in Forex.com? I have IFX_William spread, WilliamsāPercent Range, and Welles Wilder Smoothing. But this last does not have the points you mentioned, it is an indicator on the bottom of the charts.
Peter,
I agree with Philip, GBP/CHF looks great. I am actually angry not to jump in earlier. Some pullback would be great to enter the party. Maybe Philip shares us the new entry technique on the pair when he sees something. It is interesting always to read your posts as we can all see what a huge knowledge you have on GBP. You know all correlations, different sessions in line with up-to-date fundamental and different crosses of GBP. I really hope I will once have an overall view like you do. My dad advice for me he would concentrate on 1 pair only and master it (he used pure logic, never ever traded something). I think it is a wise suggestion especially in the beginning. It is my weakness that my temperament does not let me to do this. I wish I could though.
Mike,
you make a good progression lately. You are not influenced by a daily sentiment change anymore, you are able to see the big picture. You even expect today a Comms day and regardless how it turns out, you know that you will not go with it, might be only a small correction. That is an important point. We have to be flexible but also not too flexible to change every day our bias based on every little and unexplainable price movement. Keep up your current thinking.
Rookie,
you see, now you convinced me better with the AUD with all the data provided. On which site did you get all this info? Or do you always just google all your searches? By Peter I said I like a lot GBP/CHF setup, thinking about your AUD/JPY is also very promising! I might even enter although I do not want to trade JPY. Still the carry trade on the side with the pullback seems really promising. If you are an expert on red meat, just please buy the best one and send me a good steak! Ok, I see you already posted one source (Bloomberg TV), thanks for it, then I will watch it during I eat lunch and can take part in the discussions better. What you have wrote about JPY in general is completely true. If it gets stronger only on risk off sentiment, I will try to scalp the rebounce after the risk off is finished and might short JPY short-term across the board only to fade the move.
By the way, guys I have an important question. Does anyone know what happened to AUD in the second half of 2008? Was there a catastrophe? I cruised on AUD charts after the discussions and have seen this 2008 across the board and I have never seen such a movement in a currency in such a short period of time. I am afraid only Peter is out there long enough to remember.
So guys, finally I caught up with the thread and do not forget, today is Wednesday so if you guys have some extra energy then lets do some trade recaps.
Hey fellas.
Been reading. Have you all heard about trading CFDās? Well, I just found out what it is. Iām not quite sure but I think FE has mentioned it. I need to look back on our thread. But, anyway, here is the link.
Very interesting!
CFD Trading vs. Spot Forex Trading
Hey FE.
How about this. Should explain it.
Very interesting.
1301.0 - Year Book Australia, 2009ā10
Hi guys,
This week I cannot say much about closed or just opened trades, more on the open ones which are running since a longer time.
The most important part is: I have [B]closed all USD/HUF[/B] trades. I cannot tell you the pip count as the value of a pip is very little and I was scaling in with very little positions. These two factors contribute to a huge pip number to the negative side, might be a candidate for a negative world record. Now I just have to make the same performance to the other direction.
Because of the huge pressure coming, I also closed the [B]GBP/USD short[/B] trade. Something unusual happened though. I closed it in the morning hour with very low liquidity but my broker was so slow to closing it (took more minutes), when I clicked close, I was in +3 pips, and when it actually closed it I ended up in [B]ā 7 pips[/B]. Of course it does not contribute huge to my account balance but it makes me angry to lose 10 pips like that.
These were the only closed trades.
I have open trades though since a longer time and they are running great. Here I have mostly [B]USD long trades vs.: EUR, CHF, CAD, USD, AUD, CAD and CAD again[/B] for the third time. I also do not know how many pips is that, but my best trade is with EUR (+316) and my worst trade is with NZD (+82) so they are doing all quite good!
Besides that I have to [B]CHF shorts open: vs. EUR and CAD[/B]. Now these trades do not do much. CHF does not get any strength but also does not get weaker too like I expected. I am still in. The two positions have a [B]-43 pip[/B] count currently. I am still in a disciplined patient/waiting mode.
Besides that my last three [B]exotic trades[/B] are running ([B]TRY, PLN and CZK[/B]). They do not affect my balance too much and I decide soon what to do with them.
[B]XAG/USD lost 1$ from its value[/B] which is quite a lot ($18.80 to $17.80) but I definitely stay in it and my [B]S&P 500 trade started out with a small surplus[/B] today. I plan to hold both of them long.
Altogether my account balance got less because I closed the negative HUF trades but my equity increased as the open trades are doing good.
Thanks for posting this! Definitely a whole new angle to this. 
Hi FE,
Yes, Iām still doing my COT spreadsheet analysis and, just recently, adding the correlation indicator just to get a feel of using it live. But I think I will limit myself to just these two first. When I first started, I would try every system known to traders and end up mastering none. Your father gave you a good advice there (I like him already). His advice is what Iām doing right now. Iām sticking with cable, COT, and correlation indicator until the next year. Lol, this is kinda hard, especially since we all talk about the many opportunities from different pairs (not to mention itās boring too), but Iām determined to finish this year touching nothing but those three. A friend of mine, who introduced me to trading, once made 1000% return in 3 months trading nothing but cable (he use only simple technical analysis, no news watching, no fundamentals). But that was of course after months of studying the pair. This is what I keep saying to myself to remind me the importance of mastery.
Lot of USD strength at present - break on USD/CAD long 1100, will help as a hedge.
Cable has shown some resilience at 6350, but too soon to add anything.
Welcome Austin, I hope you are enjoying the thread. 
FE, first on the second picture: It was a close call but the bar you were referring you was just outside the oversold zone. It was at -93 compared to the -95 value we need. Itās very important to stick to the extreme levels as I mentioned them of course, they are far more accurate at calling bottom.
This link Will let you and rookie download the indicator for free. Its the official version for MT4 as well. So good luck guys.
yeah. we need follow the market. we must test and check it. we will be understand it we wil make more money
Hey guys.
Well weāre gonna follow the market now, for a Wednesday.
AUD: +6 -1 0///+5 -0 0
CAD: +5 -0 2///+4 -0 1
USD: +4 -1 2///+0 -1 2
NZD: +4 -1 2///+4 -0 1
GBP: +2 -4 1///+0 -3 0
EUR: +1 -4 2///+0 -3 0
JPY : +1 -5 1///+0 -3 0
CHF: +0 -7 0///+0 -3 0
Yes guys, we have itā¦Comms took it today. With a +13.
Recap:
Monday: M +15
Tuesday: M +15
Wednesday:C +13
And we have the AUD as the strongest today. Well, it is a close one with the CAD. The AUD was down against the USD, and the CAD was even against the USD and NZD.
All Comms strong today.
The USD was strongest Major, then GBP.
EUR, CHF, JPY turned things upside down today, from the first two days. (yeahā¦back where you belong)
And we have the 00GMT shot.
Ok guys.
Gotta run.
Mike
Morning guys!
This month Iāve mostly been riding up USD against EUR, JPY and NZD and Iāve done pretty well thanks to dollar bulls Iām up 14% except for one bad trade where Iāve lost almost half of what I made with EURAUD short. I think Iāll mostly go along with the dollar bulls in the months to come unless we encounter a major shift in sentiment of course.
Sticking to your plan and being disciplined sure seems to pay off. Except for EURAUD short trades all of my trades turned out well raising up the winners and pushing down the losers. My drawdown chart and winners/losers ratio both look pretty decent now. And Iām planning to keep things going the way it is now. Iām quite happy at my results.
One thing to take from your experiment with exotic pairs FEā¦ as I vaguely recall you went in long trades against the dollar assuming when geopolitical risks calm down exotic pairs should gain back up against the dollar. Correct me if Iām wrong but this is how and what I remember. Now if you ask me to be logical I donāt think you were thinking in a mind set that you usually are. I know you go in on trades if your fundamental and COT bias align and avoid placing any trades otherwise. But what you have done with exotic pairs to me sounds like the exact opposite of what you usually do. Placing trades purely based off of geopolitical risk sentiment to me sounds more like a gambling than anything else. Assuming that you placed trades according to COT data /as for exotic pairs they only cover RUB and mexican peso though/ did you have any outlook on economies of each currency ? And you went against dollar with these exotic currencies. Howās that FE ? From what weāve been doing and covering we all are well aware that the US tops the list in terms of economic recovery and growth with Fed looking to hike its rate to be the first out of developed nations investors will be placing their money betting up on dollar. Even if geopolitical risks were to calm down I donāt think those exotic currencies could have made decent gains against dollar. I just wanted to put this out there and to remind you to stick to your trading principle. I have picked mine up from you FE thats why I thank you from time to time and its proving to work rather well. Nevertheless Iām sure it was a good experience and I want you see this as a reminder to stick to your principle. That way you donāt feel so disheartened and be able to move on thereās going to be plenty of opportunities. Well you already did with S&P 500
Hi guys,
I have not read the posts, I do not want to be influenced on my view :-). I just want to say I clicked through the charts and the 3 sites I usually click through for news and made the following 3 observations:
[I]Mediuem- and Long-term:[/I]
[B]NZD weakness[/B]. Here is an article: Asia slips as Wall Street cheer fizzles, kiwi slides | Reuters It was good to be long in all those trades, especially vs. NZD. Looking at what the Governor said it makes me think that shorting NZD is still a good idea before we can see the expected rise.
[I]Short-term sentiment[/I] based on daily candlesticks/price action:
[B]GBP weakness[/B], well I guess it is not what you want to hear but checking the candlestick it seems like GBP stops now or makes a reversal soon. At least that is what I have seen.
[B]CAD strength[/B], well I do not say they are very strong but compared to the comdolls they just donāt give up lately. I will follow price action and if they do not lose further today then I will conclude that it is the end of my USD/CAD long bias for now and I will take my profit.
Now I do some work and answer in a couple of hours for the forum posts!
Hi rookie,
thanks a lot for your post! When I closed the trades I really did not do much explanation although some of the positions were open for almost 2 months (1 day less than 2 months). So I think it is good then to write a bit about the situation although you already summed up quite a lot.
[I]Original trade idea[/I]:
The problem is that I made my trade idea mostly on technical levels and as you said on geo political news. The difference is though important to see between the 7 currencies we follow vs. the USD and the exotic currencies. For one, the currencies we follow did lose ground vs. the USD but not as much as the exotic currencies. The exotic currencies rallied to historical highs which showed me there is a better than average chance to turn back; for two the interest rate differential in for most exotic pairs are a lot better than for USD and the other majors. These two facts were on my side.
Still, as you will see I made many mistakes. Because of this reason I chose to deny 99% of exotic pair trading. I leave 1% for me always as great setups occur in the market and I am willing to take the risk. Now I am also in a silver and S&P 500 trade because I do see good setups and I believe in them. But I will greatly reduce some wild trades.
[I]Failures that I made with opening the positions[/I] (you already mentioned some):
- as you also said, I was [B]missing exactly what I normally do[/B][B]: looking at the very big picture of fundamentals[/B]
- I [B]based my trades on technical analysis only[/B] and I learned that there might be resistant at historical highs but we have to be flexibel at all levels and if the fundamentals line up, these levels will just break.
- the many success which came in the last month were based on the sentiment gauge of COT report. As you also said, I took trades on setups where [B]I had no information on COT[/B]. I consider this as the biggest mistake. I decided to trade pairs now on products which are in the COT report. This gives me confidence and edge.
- The USD will gets most likely rate hike next year and the exotic currencies got rate decreases the last times. This [B]decreases the interest rate advantage of the exotic currencies[/B].
- I s[B]caled in big time into my losers[/B]. I do believe there are setups when I can scale in but I have to be a lot more disciplined. Now for example if USD would get weak vs. EUR, NZD or AUD, I would scale in without a problem but with less positions than I did and with a tight stop loss.
- āThe trend is your friend.ā This is one of my basics to my strategy. I like to get the big reversals but I mostly concentrate on making money with the trends. It is safer. [B]I completely ignored the candlestick movements and went against the trend[/B]. Very big mistake.
[I]Evaluation[/I]:
Sometimes we lose even when we do a great job. This time I lost because I made all possible mistakes, and the one that really bad is that I did not follow my system. Here are the points that I will definitely pay attention in the future:
- trade COT report products
- only trade in line with fundamental bias and with the trend
- do not scale in into losers (only some small positions)
I do think this loss had to occur. If I look at it realistic, now or later it would have come. I do not know if you guys have sometimes such feelings, but I know it would have come. I know myself. I saw a good opportunity and wanted a big time win. If this time it would have worked then the second or third or etc. time those historical levels would have broken once.
Now my mind is easier without these problems (except 3 small trades still open but they do not play much role) and I concentrate on a lot less pairs and setups. The week is running very good until now I regroup and try to think positive as nothing else can happen.
Thanks rookie for the help and your opinion. It was a good post, I do not know how it came into your mind.
I read L Williams talk about a trader called āflipperā. He told also how arriving at a ābiasā caused him to lose over a few months (maybe shorter, not sure). Anyways, he exhorted his readers to become like flipper.
I dumped my long cable when it couldnāt stay above 50, then seeing the USD strength yesterday in NY session I went short AUD/USD and long USD/JPY for the Asian session.
I have often noticed that USD strength or weakness at close of NY will continue in the following Asian session, especially on those two crosses - that was my reasoning.
My outlook on cable this morning - Iāll wait until Mr Carney speaks and watch price reaction and then decide.
Good luck to you all today.
Good morning fellas.
Well, not much going on with me. Iām patiently waiting and watching. Still reading the book, ābibleā.
As I scan the charts to see what happened over Asian session, WOW. We have a very strong USD, and a very weak NZD. And Iām wondering what will happenā¦will London keep that trend going? And into US session?
It seems like everyone remembers the good Housing data that came out yesterday. We just had to get the Comms turn out of the way (yesterday), and now back to the Majors. Since no one else has any real strength, looking like a pile on (for the USD).
Iām very interested in the AUD Governors speech. So Iām gonna read it.
Iām here.
Mike
Hi Philip,
slowly I am further on with the topic of the entry system. You gave me yesterday the indicator to download, now here are some questions on you to start the system testing:
- you have written for the volatility stop the length value 20 and multiplier 2. In my indicator that you gave me there are three settings, it looks like this: VI_period: 14, ATR_period: 7 and ARC_constant: 3.0. Now I guess the VI_period means the length and I have to change it to 20. But what about the other two? Where should I enter the 2 and what is with the third value?
Thanks,
FE
